Brazil's steel sector is reeling from a double blow of surging Chinese imports and steep U.S. tariffs under President Trump, as Datamar News reports in their December 11 analysis. Chinese steel flooding the market at dumping prices—up 42% in flat-steel imports during the first quarter alone—has slashed domestic production capacity to record lows, with 6.3 million tonnes expected by year-end. Brazil's response? Import quotas triggering 25% tariffs on excess volumes of key products like galvanized steel wire and nails, extended into 2025 to shield local mills. The government eyes even higher duties on Chinese steel by 2026, potentially raising R$14 billion for the budget amid a R$27.1 billion deficit push.
Trump's tariffs amplify the pain. A 25% U.S. levy on Brazilian steel, per IPEA's study, could cut output by 2.19%, exports by 11.27%, and cost $1.5 billion—though GDP impact stays minimal at 0.01%. Over half of Brazil's steel headed to the U.S. last year, making it vital. Flexport's December 11 update notes Trump expanded exemptions from a 40% tariff on Brazilian goods last month, but steel remains hammered.
Tensions peaked with Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazilian beef, coffee, orange juice, and more—politically tied to Jair Bolsonaro's trial, according to AP and Food Manufacturing reports. Beef imports, key for U.S. ground beef, faced mid-August hikes to 50%, spiking cattle futures before partial rollbacks. Cecafé warns coffee exports dropped 21% in early 2025 due to these duties, threatening U.S. breakfast costs as Brazil supplies 60% of American orange juice imports. Embraer jets and pulp face hits too, though a 10% pulp tariff lift offers slim relief, per Wood Central.
Yet glimmers emerge: President Lula claims Trump "guaranteed" a trade deal soon, per DD News, amid diplomacy on ethanol and sugar. Flexport highlights Brazil dodging some reciprocal deals, unlike China or Canada.
Listeners, as tariffs reshape trade, Brazil pushes back while negotiating resets. Stay tuned for updates on this volatile front.
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