Welcome back to Brazil Tariff News and Tracker. This is your update on the shifting landscape of Brazilian trade with the United States, where recent developments signal both relief and continued uncertainty for exporters.
Just weeks ago, President Trump removed the 40 percent tariffs on Brazilian food products including coffee, beef, cocoa, and fruit. This order, signed on November 20th, marks a significant reversal from the heavy duties imposed in July. The move affects Brazilian imports to the US on or after November 13th and may require refunds of duties collected while the tariffs were in effect. Brazil normally supplies roughly a third of the coffee consumed in the United States, making this development crucial for the American coffee market, which saw retail prices spike as much as 40 percent in 2025 due to the tariffs combined with weather-induced production shortfalls.
The coffee industry is already responding to this change. According to commodities analysts, thousands of bags of Brazilian coffee that were sitting in bonded warehouses are expected to start moving quickly to US roasters. These storage facilities allowed importers to hold products without paying import duties while they waited for a potential tariff revision, which has now materialized.
However, the broader Brazilian agricultural picture remains complicated. The 2025-26 harvest presents a mixed outlook. Arabica production is down 13.6 percent to 38 million bags, primarily due to erratic weather patterns including drought, insufficient rainfall, and cold fronts that threatened frost damage. In Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica-producing state, production fell 15.5 percent compared to the previous year. Robusta production, meanwhile, surged to a record 25 million bags, up 19 percent, as weather conditions proved more favorable in key growing regions.
Looking ahead to 2026-27, early estimates suggest Arabica output could recover significantly to around 47 million bags, representing a 24 percent increase. This recovery is expected because the next cycle will be an on-year for the crop in Brazil's biennial production pattern, and higher prices in recent years have enabled farmers to invest more heavily in production.
For listeners tracking these developments, the tariff removal represents meaningful progress for Brazilian exporters, but supply constraints and weather volatility remain ongoing concerns. The coming months will be critical as roasters restock and the market absorbs normalized trade flows.
Thank you for tuning in to Brazil Tariff News and Tracker. Be sure to subscribe for continuing coverage of how trade policy shapes Brazilian agriculture and global commodity markets.
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