Wonder what it's like to control millions of dollars of marketing budget? Manage hundreds of people? Make the decisions on which ideas get to market?
The CMO Confidential podcast shares how it feels to be in that chair of the shortest-tenured position on the C-suite.
We detail the long, hard road most ideas take to get to market & how challenging it is to get the best ones through.
Hosted by Mike Linton -- the former P&G Brand Manager who went on to be the Chief Marketing Officer of Best Buy, eBay, and Farmers Insurance, as well as the Chief Revenue Officer of Ancestry.com and the head marketer at Remington -- this show serves as an ongoing lesson plan for how to get, do, keep, and handle the pressures of the CMO job.
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Wonder what it's like to control millions of dollars of marketing budget? Manage hundreds of people? Make the decisions on which ideas get to market?
The CMO Confidential podcast shares how it feels to be in that chair of the shortest-tenured position on the C-suite.
We detail the long, hard road most ideas take to get to market & how challenging it is to get the best ones through.
Hosted by Mike Linton -- the former P&G Brand Manager who went on to be the Chief Marketing Officer of Best Buy, eBay, and Farmers Insurance, as well as the Chief Revenue Officer of Ancestry.com and the head marketer at Remington -- this show serves as an ongoing lesson plan for how to get, do, keep, and handle the pressures of the CMO job.
Dr. Joel Shapiro | Kellogg School | What an NFL Injury Analysis Can Teach Business About Resilience
CMO Confidential
30 minutes 57 seconds
1 month ago
Dr. Joel Shapiro | Kellogg School | What an NFL Injury Analysis Can Teach Business About Resilience
A CMO Confidential Interview with Dr. Joel Shapiro, Managerial Economics & Decision Sciences Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern, formerly Varicent Chief Analytics Officer. Joel discusses his NFL study including why some teams handle injury better then others, the idea of finding variables which can't be seen by the naked eye, and his conclusion that resilience has a lot to do with planning, resource deployment and the foresight to think about potential problems. Key topics include: the importance of back-ups; the ability to find business problems that can be solved with data; and how to use data and AI to predict "bad stuff." Tune in to hear about the "percent cash wasted measure," and how Joel's class beat Las Vegas on predicting last year's NHL playoff teams.
**What NFL Injury Data Teaches Business About Resilience — with Joel Shapiro (Kellogg)**
Northwestern Kellogg’s Joel Shapiro returns to CMO Confidential to unpack a surprising finding: predicting player injury isn’t a “failed use case” — and the lessons translate directly to how leaders design resilient organizations. We cover the data model behind injury prediction, Joel’s “percent cash wasted” metric, the real effect of injuries on winning (including offense vs. defense), why backups matter, and how to build purposeful resilience across sales, supply chain, and leadership. Plus: a student project that beat Vegas and a fearless (and funny) Super Bowl take.
Chapters
00:00 Intro — Why this episode matters for executives
01:10 Joel’s remit: turning data & AI into business outcomes
03:19 Injury prediction isn’t a failed use case
05:45 Why the NFL: clean injury data and an 11-year dataset
07:32 What the model outputs: games likely to be missed
08:51 “Percent Cash Wasted”: paying for injured players
10:15 Do injuries really impact winning? The curve is flatter than you think
12:19 Offense vs. defense: wasted cash effects aren’t equal
13:47 Healthy one year, injured the next: who stays good?
14:36 The lever that breaks teams: losing a highly paid QB
15:25 Purposeful resilience vs. “toughing it out”
16:34 Backups matter — translating roster depth to business
18:29 If you can’t prevent every injury, recruit for availability
19:17 Business translation: resilience in sales, supply chain, and leadership
21:42 Treat resilience as strategy, not back-office insurance
24:22 Which companies are structurally resilient (and why scale helps)
24:49 Joel’s bold pick: the Bears’ weird start and a playful prediction
25:36 Data, betting, and integrity — what changes as information improves
27:25 Students vs. Vegas: NHL playoff models that won
28:20 How much data it really takes (rows, columns, and what matters)
29:54 Wrap and where to find more CMO Confidential
Tags
CMO Confidential, Mike Linton, Joel Shapiro, Northwestern Kellogg, data science, AI, predictive analytics, NFL injuries, sports analytics, resilience, business resilience, risk management, leadership, percent cash wasted, roster construction, backups, quarterback, offense vs defense, supply chain, sales teams, machine learning, predictive modeling, DraftKings, FanDuel, NHL, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears, C-suite, marketing leadership, podcast, YouTube chapters
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CMO Confidential
Wonder what it's like to control millions of dollars of marketing budget? Manage hundreds of people? Make the decisions on which ideas get to market?
The CMO Confidential podcast shares how it feels to be in that chair of the shortest-tenured position on the C-suite.
We detail the long, hard road most ideas take to get to market & how challenging it is to get the best ones through.
Hosted by Mike Linton -- the former P&G Brand Manager who went on to be the Chief Marketing Officer of Best Buy, eBay, and Farmers Insurance, as well as the Chief Revenue Officer of Ancestry.com and the head marketer at Remington -- this show serves as an ongoing lesson plan for how to get, do, keep, and handle the pressures of the CMO job.
