Pandemics, debt, geopolitics, AI, and the fragile world economy

As 2026 approaches, global risk is no longer about isolated shocks. It is about convergence. In this Deep Dive, we walk through a global risk matrix that ranks today’s most serious threats by likelihood and economic impact, separating noise from genuinely system-level dangers. From low-probability but catastrophic scenarios like pandemics and a potential U.S. debt default, to high-likelihood pressures already reshaping growth, this episode maps the forces that could define the coming year.

We explore why global cooperation is breaking down, how geopolitical fragmentation is beginning to resemble the interwar period of the 1930s, and why record levels of global debt have made the world economy unusually sensitive to even small shocks. We unpack market concentration risks driven by a handful of dominant tech firms, the opportunity costs of surging military spending, and how cyber threats amplified by artificial intelligence are outpacing proven economic gains.

The conversation also examines climate volatility, forced displacement, China’s property slowdown, sticky inflation, labour market paradoxes, and what a weakening U.S. dollar really means for global trade, debt, and sectors like aviation.

This is not a forecast, and it is not alarmism. It is a structured assessment of vulnerability, impact, and resilience, and a reminder that many of the risks shaping 2026 are the result of policy choices, not inevitabilities.

If you want to understand what could derail the global economy next year, and what might still shift the outcome, this episode is your shortcut to being well informed.