Doubtless THE story of financial markets in 2023 has been the astonishing comeback of MegaTech. When rates went to zero during the pandemic, the explosion in Tech valuations made sense both in terms of mechanics and narrative. If discounted cash flows were governed by the 10-year rate, then companies like Apple became something like 100 year bounds. Look far enough into the future and it was hard to imagine how the likes of Apple, Amazon, Facebook and the like could fail. But then the F...
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Doubtless THE story of financial markets in 2023 has been the astonishing comeback of MegaTech. When rates went to zero during the pandemic, the explosion in Tech valuations made sense both in terms of mechanics and narrative. If discounted cash flows were governed by the 10-year rate, then companies like Apple became something like 100 year bounds. Look far enough into the future and it was hard to imagine how the likes of Apple, Amazon, Facebook and the like could fail. But then the F...
This week with inflation cooling off and the Federal Reserve balance sheet unchanged, the S&P 500 stretched to near 4,000. But Jerome Powell has made it clear that no rally can long endure, not while unemployment hovers near 3.5%. For now the structure of this bear market remains intact. What's more we closed last week with Implied Volatility (VIX) revisiting a 52 week low. All this to say that with another week of earnings looming and a debt limit fiasco on the horizon, all signs p...
Degenerate Business School
Doubtless THE story of financial markets in 2023 has been the astonishing comeback of MegaTech. When rates went to zero during the pandemic, the explosion in Tech valuations made sense both in terms of mechanics and narrative. If discounted cash flows were governed by the 10-year rate, then companies like Apple became something like 100 year bounds. Look far enough into the future and it was hard to imagine how the likes of Apple, Amazon, Facebook and the like could fail. But then the F...
