UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.   In today’s episode, we break down three key fights — Hermansson vs Oralbai, Spivac vs Gaziev, and the main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker — with full statistical context, xR% comparisons, and model probabilities.   I’ll also talk briefly about my year-long pick’em contest grind, what the model saw last week, and how we’re approaching these final three events of the season.   Follow the show & stay connected: • Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo • Instagram & TikTok: @TheRobbeo • Substack: http://FightNumbers.substack.com • Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the week as well   If you enjoy the episode, don’t forget to rate, follow, and share — it really helps the podcast grow.   Let’s make the most of these early-morning edges. Enjoy UFC Qatar!