In this episode of Fixed + Floating, Professor Edward Altman (NYU Stern) explains the rise of shadow defaults and what credit investors should know about today’s evolving corporate credit landscape. We explore private credit growth, distressed exchanges, and hidden risks in loan and bond markets, and analyze what default patterns may signal for the next 12–24 months.

Edward Altman, creator of the Z-Score and one of the most influential thinkers in corporate credit, shares insights into how leveraged finance has evolved into a $5 trillion market, why private credit is growing, and where silent stress and shadow defaults are appearing across credit markets. His research remains foundational for investors, restructuring professionals, and financial institutions worldwide.

The discussion breaks down how credit cycles lead business cycles, why loan defaults are rising faster than bond defaults, the mechanics of distressed debt exchanges, and the evolution of the modern Z-Score. We also cover PIK toggles, liability management exercises, and hidden risks in private credit, helping professional investors understand the forces shaping credit markets today.

Slidedeck: https://1drv.ms/b/c/3256e611aeacc253/IQBNBxz0rmF8RIZxZBStfVCtAV3t2Twa2015NJrNj1ekQ1s?e=WngDx3

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