US shockingly reverses AI chip bans, letting Nvidia sell #2 H200 to "vetted" Chinese buyers for 25% US revenue share. Boosts China's lagging compute gap, copycat fabs, military AI, and undercuts US national security for nothing.

🎯 DISCOVER

• Why the U.S. is now allowing Nvidia’s H200 into China after years of export bans
• How this changes China’s biggest AI weakness: access to high-end compute
• Why “25% of sales to the U.S. government” may be far less meaningful than it sounds
• How China’s copy-and-conquer playbook, domestic fabs, and energy edge amplify this move
• What this means for Nvidia’s dominance and rising rivals like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft

🔍 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro — AI Chips, China & A Wild Policy Reversal

00:36 US Approves Nvidia H200 Sales — 25% Revenue Share & “Vetted” Buyers

01:26 National Security Risk — Export Controls, AI Arms Race & Military Concerns

01:47 China’s AI Ambition — More Threads IPO, Ex-Nvidia Leadership & Sanctions

02:41 Compute Gap — Huawei Ascend vs H200, US 70% of Global AI Compute

03:33 How One Chip Matters — Networking, System-Level Risk & U.S. Advantage

04:19 Tariffs vs Tech — Why This Undercuts a Year of Trade Pain

04:52 Nvidia’s China Exposure — 15% Revenue, Weak H200 Forecasts & 25% of “Not Much”

05:38 Smuggling & Shadow Access — Grey Markets, Domestic Bans & Blackwell Angle

06:46 Copy & Conquer — Forced Tech Transfer, Joint Ventures & Decoupling Risk

08:04 China’s Structural Edge — Fabs Expansion & 500 GW of New Power vs US 40 GW

09:32 Zero-Sum Rivalry — Trade Truces, Tariffs & Strategic Drift

11:12 Nvidia’s Moat Under Fire — TPUs, Trainium & Microsoft’s Fast-Follow Strategy

12:04 Takeaways — Have We Just Helped Our Main Rival Catch Up?

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📚 SOURCES & DATA

• US OKs Nvidia Chip Sales to China: https://www.semafor.com/article/12/09/2025/trump-says-nvidia-can-sell-h200-ai-chips-to-china
• China Limits Access to Nvidia H200 Despite US Export Approval: https://www.ft.com/content/c4e81a67-cd5b-48b4-9749-92ecf116313d
• Nvidia Expands China H2000 Exports: https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-china-exports-h2000-chips-5943aa48
• From Chips to Security, China’s Getting What it Wants: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/12/world/asia/nvidia-china-trump-security-japan.html 
• CFR: AI Chip Exports Backfire on U.S.: https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/consequences-exporting-ai-chips-china
• Exporting AI Chips Risks U.S. Lead: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/why-exporting-advanced-chips-to-china-endangers-us-ai-leadership/
• U.S. Chip Export Loopholes Exposed: https://democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/2025/11/export-control-loopholes-chipmaking-tools-and-their-subcomponents
• Experts Slam 25% U.S. Nvidia Cut: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/12/us-taking-25-cut-of-nvidia-chip-sales-makes-no-sense-experts-say/
• AI Market War: U.S. vs. China Chips: https://youtu.be/nIp8HGLQeNI
• AI Chip Smuggling Exposed: https://youtu.be/tFp6JtBTjao
• Data Centers Face AI Compute Crunch: https://youtu.be/NTSwKZXtD1k
• Ford’s China Sales Collapse: https://youtu.be/2RJ9v-ZyZgE
• Inside China’s New 5-Year Plan: https://youtu.be/3F_zislTiKI
• China Leads AI Power Expansion: https://www.wsj.com/tech/china-ai-electricity-data-centers-d2a86935?mod=hp_lead_pos7
• China’s Moore Threads Challenges Nvidia: https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3335900/chinas-moore-threads-unveil-ai-chip-road-map-rival-nvidias-cuda-system
• China IP Theft & Tech Ambitions: https://www.nbr.org/program/commission-on-the-theft-of-intellectual-property/
• Full list: https://youtu.be/UphXmFOYUU8

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