As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
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As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
Why is it that this government, and its predecessors, find economic growth so hard to attain? In the UK, growth remains stubbornly low for a number of reasons, and these are not the ones that the government is currently blaming. First, governments avoid hard choices and spread resources too thinly. As Tony Blair said to me many years ago, politicians prefer to have "and" over "or" – in his case, nuclear and renewables. Political instinct favours doing “everything” to please all parts of politicians’ constituencies, but this dilutes investment and prevents large-scale, coordinated programmes. Instead of comprehensive strategies like those seen in China or France, the UK pursues piecemeal, case-by-case projects, resulting in high costs and inefficiencies, such as probably the most expensive nuclear plants in the world (at c. £12 billion per gigawatt). Without focused, long-term infrastructure programmes, growth cannot accelerate.
Beyond this, structural issues compound the problem. Western economies, especially the UK, prioritise consumption over production, rely heavily on welfare spending, and maintain incentive systems that discourage work. High taxes and borrowing further stifle growth, while domestic savings – critical for funding investment – are minimal. Unlike post-war economic miracles in Germany, Japan and China, driven by savings and production, the UK depends on foreign capital and supply chains, leaving its economy vulnerable. A fundamental shift towards production, supported by domestic savings and programme-driven investment, is a prerequisite for sustainable growth.
Helm Talks - energy climate infrastructure & more
As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
