As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
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As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
There are five major lessons from COP30. They are not the ones the climate community has highlighted, but they really matter and will shape the post-COP30 climate change negotiations.
First up is the realisation that it is no longer a European (and UK) game. The shifts in world political and economic power for the first time sidelined the Europeans. There was no UK “climate change leadership” to be taken seriously. It is India, China, Russia and the US that pulled the strings, whether present or not. Second, no major oil and gas producer or coal-burning nation wants to stop. Brazil set the tone: it announced that it wants to be the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, with drilling to start in the mouth of the Amazon. Third, no one wants to cut their carbon consumption, personally or nationally. The Brazilian carbon footprint includes the flights, the new road through the rainforest, the cruise liners for accommodation, as well as the commitment to its own fossil fuels. Fourth, the real action was on the bottom-up trade issues, notably the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and the emerging coalition of the willing with the extension of carbon pricing. The fifth lesson is that the temperature is going to go on rising: 30 COPs so far haven’t made a dent in the carbon concentration in the atmosphere, and another 30 COPs probably won’t.
Helm Talks - energy climate infrastructure & more
As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
