As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
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As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
The UK’s infrastructure costs are amongst the highest globally, making ambitious projects—like new nuclear plants, HS2, and airport expansions—extremely expensive. Hinkley and Sizewell nuclear stations together may end up costing more than the original full costs of HS2, and a new Heathrow runway could reach £40 billion. Even basic upgrades, like sewage tanks and reservoirs, are far pricier than elsewhere. While some projects, such as the Elizabeth Line and Thames Tideway, have been delivered efficiently, these are rare exceptions.
The main drivers of high costs are higher costs of capital (due to high interest rates and inflation), low labour productivity, and fragmented project delivery. The UK often builds infrastructure as isolated projects rather than as part of coordinated programmes, which prevents investment in supply chains and skills. France’s programme of nuclear power stations building in the 1980s is an example of how things could be done. Unlike countries that use the state’s balance sheet or commit to long-term programmes, the UK’s piecemeal approach keeps costs high, discourages investors, and limits what can actually be delivered. Without smarter regulation and better planning, these high costs will continue to hold back progress.
Helm Talks - energy climate infrastructure & more
As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective. By 2030, the world is likely to be more fragmented into economic and political blocs, with China, Russia, and the US reinforcing self-sufficiency, and emerging economies like India and Indonesia gaining prominence. Climate change progress is expected to remain minimal, and technological revolutions in AI and quantum computing may either transform industries or deliver incremental changes.
Of the possible shifts in the next five years, a significant global financial correction before 2030 appears the most likely, driven by unsustainable market valuations, private equity vulnerabilities, and mounting government debt. The aftermath could involve serious inflation and currency debasement, as governments resort to aggressive monetary interventions. This scenario would reshape political and economic models, potentially leading to more state intervention and less private sector influence.
Looking ahead, three possible trajectories for the UK and similar economies are outlined: continued muddling through with incremental adjustments; a radical re-set akin to a “Thatcher moment” to curb public spending and debt; or a protectionist “fortress Britain” approach emphasising self-sufficiency. Each path carries profound implications for trade, growth, and political stability. But financial markets seem most likely to act as the catalyst for systemic change before 2030.
