What Are Taiwan’s Latest AI Signals Telling Us About the Next Tech Cycle?

From Taipei, we track the signals shaping the world’s most valuable supply chain. Taiwan just raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 7.37 percent on the strength of AI server demand, yet manufacturing indicators slipped into a caution zone and markets pulled back as investors took profits. The question is how these mixed signals should be read as the next tech cycle forms.

Q1. Are we seeing acceleration or early caution?

GDP revisions reflect a powerful AI hardware surge, driven by U.S. cloud giants expanding capacity. At the same time, October manufacturing data turned yellow blue and the TAIEX fell more than 1 percent after a rapid AI rally. The long term trajectory is strong, but near term sentiment is cautious.

Q2. What do U.S. tariff talks reveal about supply chain strategy?

Negotiations on Section 232 steel and aluminum duties aim to prevent tariff stacking and align Taiwan with Japan’s 15 percent rate. With TSMC investing 40 billion dollars in Arizona, a clearer framework signals deeper cooperation in securing semiconductor resilience.

Q3. Why is the HBM race intensifying?

Micron announced a 9.6 billion dollar HBM project in Japan. DigiTimes reports Nvidia is expanding from SK Hynix to Samsung for upcoming HBM4. The demand is driven by enterprise scale AI adoption, reinforced by new partnerships such as OpenAI and Accenture.

Q4. How is MediaTek navigating the next frontier?

The company is moving from fast follower to original AI chip designer. It has scaled its AI division to several thousand engineers and is investing in new capabilities like advanced packaging and silicon photonics. Its reinvention illustrates how the next cycle will reward companies that can innovate at zero to one speed.