In this wide-ranging and intellectually rich conversation, host Pierre Daillie sits down with veteran options trader, market maker, and probabilistic thinker Kris Abdelmessih for a deep exploration of how markets really work beneath the surface—and how investors can think more clearly in a world dominated by uncertainty, noise, and emotion. Drawing on more than two decades of experience spanning Susquehanna International Group, proprietary commodity trading, and portfolio management at Parallax, Abdelmessih explains why options markets reveal truths that stock prices alone cannot, how poker shaped his understanding of risk and decision-making, and why probabilistic thinking—not prediction—separates professionals from amateurs. The discussion moves seamlessly from trading pits and market structure to behavioral bias, prediction markets, volatility, and education, culminating in a thoughtful explanation of Moontower, Abdelmessih’s platform designed to help investors understand whether options are cheap, expensive, or inappropriate for a given thesis. This episode is less about “what to buy” and more about how to think—about risk, information, and the difference between being right and making money.