SPRO is a small biotech company with one key drug, tebipenem, that treats serious urinary tract infections. The FDA will decide in December 2025 whether this oral antibiotic can be sold in the U.S. The stock currently trades at $1.89 per share. The real chance of FDA approval is 84 out of 100. This high probability comes from a successful Phase 3 study. The study showed tebipenem worked nearly as well as the standard IV treatment. Patients on tebipenem had a 58.8% success rate compared to 61.6% for the IV drug. The FDA did not require an advisory committee meeting, which signals confidence. No serious safety concerns were found in the trials. The most common side effect was mild diarrhea, typical for this drug class. The company passed its manufacturing inspection with no issues. Drug stability tests confirm the pill lasts over two years. The FDA granted fast-track status years ago, showing early support. A similar drug failed in 2021, but only due to factory problems, not science. Spero fixed all manufacturing concerns well in advance. The FDA has sent no new questions in the last six months. The review process is on schedule with no delays. If approved, Spero keeps full U.S. sales rights. Doctors urgently need an oral option to replace IV therapy. About one million patients need this kind of treatment each year. The company plans to price each course at $2,500 to $3,000. Sales could reach $110 to $150 million by the third year. That revenue supports a stock price of $5.00 to $6.00 within 12 months. The path to approval looks clear and strong.If the FDA gives full approval (72% chance), the stock rises to $6.00. If approval comes with minor limits (12% chance), the stock reaches $4.00. If the FDA issues a fixable rejection (12% chance), the stock falls to $1.30. If a major issue causes rejection (4% chance), the stock drops to $0.90. Averaging all outcomes gives a fair value of $5.00 per share. That means 164% upside from today’s price. The company holds $78 million in cash today. This cash covers two full years of operations. Short sellers control 12% of shares, setting up possible rapid gains on good news. Options pricing reflects low approval odds, creating extra leverage. Wall Street analysts rate the approval odds too low. The next update comes with Q3 earnings on November 12. Management will confirm cash and FDA progress. No debt pressures the balance sheet. The leadership team has launched drugs before. Clinical data has been consistent across all trials. Patient follow-up showed no late safety signals. The drug targets a clear medical need. Hospital discharge can happen faster with an oral pill. Doctors prefer avoiding long IV lines when possible. The treatment course lasts just 7 to 14 days. Approval unlocks a large and growing market. The math strongly favors long-term success.SPRO will almost certainly survive through 2030, no matter the FDA outcome. With approval, the company becomes profitable and lasts decades. Revenue begins in mid-2026 and grows steadily. Cash flow turns positive within two years of launch. The business model becomes self-sustaining. Without approval, survival odds still exceed 90%. The $78 million cash lasts until at least 2028. Management can resubmit the drug within 6 to 12 months. A partner may buy the program during delay. The other two pipeline drugs remain as backup options. SPR206 targets deadly lung infections in hospitals. SPR720 treats rare lung disease caused by bacteria. Both programs are paused but not canceled. A cash raise becomes possible after any FDA feedback. The leadership has a track record of smart financing. No major lawsuits threaten the company. The science behind tebipenem remains solid. Doctors continue to need new antibiotics. Drug-resistant infections are rising yearly. Oral options reduce hospital stays and costs. The company owns full rights and control. Long-term survival is nearly guaranteed either way.