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The South Africa-Europe iron-ore trade route could go green as soon as 2029 and scale toward full decarbonisation by 2035, according to a study released by the Global Maritime Forum.
The feasibility study, produced in collaboration with a consortium created in 2023 - which includes Anglo American, CMB.TECH, Freeport Saldanha, VUKA Marine, and ENGIE - said the corridor linking Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape to the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands would be one of the first Global South-to-North green shipping routes.
South African iron-ore mining major Kumba Iron Ore, which operates two mines in the Northern Cape province and exports through Saldanha Bay, is an Anglo American group company and ENGIE is carrying out a major solar project in South Africa.
South Africa's primary iron-ore export terminal located at Saldanha Bay is already planning the development of green hydrogen-linked green ammonia production, alongside port upgrades to handle bunkering operations.
In the green corridor's initial years, ammonia-fuelled vessels will likely bunker in Rotterdam, which is one of the most mature ports in terms of its ammonia bunkering and safety frameworks. Meanwhile, Saldanha Bay will have the opportunity to build the infrastructure to become the long-term green ammonia production and bunkering hub for the corridor.
By 2035, the port could supply bunkering services to all corridor vessels locally, creating a dual-purpose facility that continues mineral exports while serving international shipping.
"This phased approach gives shipowners and fuel producers a clear timeline to work toward, and we now need coordinated action from policymakers and industry to make this a reality by 2029," Freeport Saldanha investment facilitation associate Shanon Neumann stated in a media release to Mining Weekly.
"However, to help Saldanha Bay transition quickly, blending public and private funding can unlock investment in infrastructure and reduce the risks of early projects," Neumann added.
The World Bank and World Economic Forum have both previously identified South Africa as a prospective participant in fuelling shipping's decarbonisation. The green corridor could contribute towards turning this notion into a reality.
Announced green hydrogen projects near the ports of Boegoebaai, Saldanha, and Walvis Bay could meet the corridor's fuel needs, including its high-demand scenario of 22 bulk carriers per annum by 2035. The possibility of such strong demand levels could mean a stronger business case for green hydrogen producers looking to secure enough offtake volumes to finalise investment decisions and accelerate new projects.
Add in the necessary financing, potential tax incentives, and port tariff discounts for fuel production and bunkering build-out at Freeport Saldanha, and South Africa could gain a competitive edge as an international bunker supplier.
The country's hydrogen sector may be able to contribute 3.6% to the country's GDP by 2030, with shipping and steel well-positioned to become early offtakers of the gas and its derivatives.
This green shipping corridor offers the opportunity to strengthen South Africa's export competitiveness, future-proof a strategic port, and support the country's Just Energy Transition through local value chains, skills development, and community benefits.
Regional and global regulations could materially improve the business case for the corridor. Europe's FuelEU Maritime greenhouse-gas intensity targets and Emissions Trading System levy, the latter to be fully phased in by 2026, narrow the cost gap between green ammonia and conventional fuels by more than 60% in modelled scenarios.
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