This week in the Middle East, clashes between Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces hindered implementation of the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met in Washington. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Russian forces continued their drive to capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and seized three villages in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast, while Canada imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s drone and energy industries. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China continued their mutual easing of trade restrictions, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks hinting at Japan’s potential military involvement in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan drew a strong rebuke from Beijing. The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days.
Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251114/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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This week in the Middle East, clashes between Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces hindered implementation of the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met in Washington. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Russian forces continued their drive to capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and seized three villages in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast, while Canada imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s drone and energy industries. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China continued their mutual easing of trade restrictions, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks hinting at Japan’s potential military involvement in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan drew a strong rebuke from Beijing. The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days.
Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251114/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region.
In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive.
In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption.
Read the Q4 Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q4-2025-forecast/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy
This week in the Middle East, clashes between Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces hindered implementation of the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met in Washington. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Russian forces continued their drive to capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and seized three villages in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast, while Canada imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s drone and energy industries. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China continued their mutual easing of trade restrictions, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks hinting at Japan’s potential military involvement in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan drew a strong rebuke from Beijing. The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days.
Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251114/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
