In this episode of Passing Judgment, Jessica is joined by David Goodman of the New York Times to break down the unexpected surge of mid-cycle redistricting in Texas. They discuss how political maneuvering by Republicans—aimed at flipping congressional seats—has triggered national reverberations, with states like California now considering similar actions to counter Texas. The episode dives into the partisan motivations, the legal and political pushback, and the threat to independent redistricting commissions. Together, Jessica and David make sense of the fast-evolving redistricting landscape and its far-reaching impact on representation and the future balance of power in Congress.
Here are three key takeaways you don't want to miss:
Mid-Cycle Redistricting—Why Now? The episode opens with an exploration of why an unusual mid-cycle redistricting is being discussed in 2025, even though redistricting typically happens every ten years after the census. The trigger for this push is political: Republicans, facing a narrow margin in the U.S. House, sought ways to gain additional seats, focusing first on Texas where state Republican control made this feasible.
The Politics and Justification of Gerrymandering Both Jessica and David highlight that Texas Republicans were fully open about the political motives behind redrawing district lines—to flip as many as five Democratic seats to Republican. They justified this by pointing out gerrymandering in Democratic-led states and emphasizing partisan advantage as allowed by the Supreme Court, which has found political gerrymandering to be outside federal judicial review.
The Domino Effect—Other States Respond Texas’s actions triggered similar conversations in other states. However, David points out that most opportunities for follow-on aggressive redistricting are found in Republican-led states because many Democratic-led states (like California and New York) have independent redistricting commissions, which limit the legislature’s ability to redraw maps for partisan gain. States specifically considered for similar moves include Indiana, Missouri, and Florida, while California emerged as the prime Democratic candidate, though with significant procedural hurdles.
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