Kubernetes commands 92% market share, yet 88% report year-over-year cost increases and 25% plan to shrink deployments. We unpack the 3-5x cost underestimation problem, the cargo cult adoption pattern, and when alternatives like Docker Swarm, Nomad, ECS, or PaaS platforms deliver better ROI. From the 200-node rule to 37signals' $10M+ five-year savings leaving AWS, this is your data-driven framework for right-sizing infrastructure decisions in 2025. 🔗 Full episode page: https://platformengineeringplaybook.com/podcasts/00026-kubernetes-complexity-backlash 📝 See a mistake or have insights to add? This podcast is community-driven - open a PR on GitHub! Summary:• 88% of Kubernetes adopters report year-over-year TCO increases (Spectro Cloud 2025), with teams underestimating total costs by 3-5x when missing human capital ($450K-$2.25M for 3-15 FTE platform team), training (6-month ramp-up), and tool sprawl• The 200-node rule: Kubernetes makes sense above 200 nodes with complex orchestration needs; below that, Docker Swarm (10-minute setup), HashiCorp Nomad (10K+ node scale), AWS ECS, Cloud Run (production in 15 minutes), or PaaS platforms ($400/month vs $150K/year K8s team) often win• 209 CNCF projects create analysis paralysis, with 75% inhibited by complexity and fintech startup wasting 120 engineer-hours evaluating service mesh they didn't need for their 30 services• Real 5-year TCO comparison: Kubernetes at 50-100 nodes costs $4.5M-$5.25M (platform team + compute + tools + training) versus PaaS at $775K-$825K (5-6x cheaper), but Kubernetes wins at 500+ nodes where PaaS per-resource costs become prohibitive• 37signals' cloud repatriation saved $10M+ over five years by leaving AWS (EKS/EC2/S3) for on-prem infrastructure ($3.2M → $1.3M annually), proving cloud and Kubernetes aren't universally optimal—they're tools with specific use cases that require matching tool to actual scale, not aspirational scale