Welsh politics has been shaken by stunning new polling from YouGov and the Wales Governance Centre — and the implications are seismic.

In this episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan (former adviser to First Ministers Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones) and Craig Lawton (political adviser and Welsh Conservative candidate) unpack a poll that puts Plaid Cymru on 33%, Reform UK on 30%, and Welsh Labour collapsing to just 10%.

📊 Using seat projections, the panel explores:

What a historic Labour collapse would mean after 100 years of dominance

Whether Plaid Cymru has replaced Labour as the party “standing up for Wales”

Why Reform UK is surging, and where its votes are really coming from

The battle for anti-Reform voters between Plaid and the Greens

Who could realistically form the next Welsh Government — and how

Eluned Morgan’s leadership challenge and Labour’s messaging problem

Why age, turnout, and tactical voting could decide the election

With coalition maths, minority government scenarios, and sharp political insight, this episode explains why the 2026 Senedd election could transform Welsh politics forever.

📲 Get involved:

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Email: hello@seneddsources.com

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