2025-11-09 | Silicon Wafers 051 | DAILY UPDATES | Despite the profusion of stories we’ve covered, the battle for Pokrovsk, energy sanctions, and so on, the most important strategic angle on the war this winter is the attritional energy war. And it’s unlike the Western attitude to the war throughout all these four years – to cede the escalation dominance to Russia, always pulling punches, in support for Ukraine, and never allowing its ally to land a decisive blow on Russia. Now Ukraine is takin off the gloves, because below the nuclear threshold, there is nothing holding back Russia’s viciousness and violence. Ukraine is seeking to inflict greater costs on Russia in the energy war, than it can impose upon Ukraine. This ‘escalation’ is the only way to make it clear to Putin he cannot win and is the only way to inflict economic and social costs that start to make Putin’s brittle regime appear vulnerable to its internal audience. Nothing else will get through to Putin. Nothing at all. Ukraine’s “doomsday lever”? Hitting the Yamal network — myth vs. math. There is an inescapable logic to the course of this existential escalation for Ukraine’s existence. It starts with testing the theory of imposing blackouts and heating denial to smaller, non-strategic Russian towns. Belgorod, Vladimir, Voronezh. And this is happening now. The next stage is to test supporting infrastructure around Moscow – electricity substations, energy supply routes for fuel, gas and oil products. This is happening. Beyond that, are substantial and extended blackouts in smaller towns, then Moscow and St. Petersburg. But that’s not the final arrow in Ukraine’s quiver. It has a doomsday option – hitting Yamal Cross. If none of the other escalatory steps lead to an unconditional ceasefire, then I suggest it’s a near certainly that we’ll reach the doomsday stage for Moscow by end of this winter. ----------Partner on this video: KYIV OF MINE Watch the trailer now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arJUcE1rxY0'Kyiv of Mine' is a documentary series about Ukraine’s beautiful capital, Kyiv. The film production began in 2018, and much has changed since then. It is now 2025, and this story is far from over.https://www.youtube.com/@UCz6UbVKfqutH-N7WXnC5Ykg https://www.kyivofmine.com/#theprojectKyiv of Mine is fast paced, beautifully filmed, humorous, fun, insightful, heartbreaking, moving, hopeful. The very antithesis in fact of a doom-laden and worthy wartime documentary. This is a work that is extraordinarily uplifting. My friend Operator Starsky says the film is “Made with so much love. The film series will make you laugh and cry.” ----------SOURCES: Ukrainian attacks in Russia’s Belgorod, Kursk oblasts leave ≥20,000 without power — The Moscow Times/AFP, Nov. 9, 2025‘A powerful secondary detonation’ — Donetsk airport Shahed hub strike — Kyiv Independent, Nov. 6, 2025Volgograd refinery halted after drone strike — Reuters, Nov. 6, 2025Crimea oil depot fire (Simferopol/Hvardiiske) after drone attacks — Ukrinform, Nov. 6, 2025Bashkortostan: Sterlitamak petrochemical plant struck — Kyiv Independent, Nov. 7, 2025Russian rebel group sabotages locomotives — Kyiv Post, Nov. 6, 2025ORLEN–Naftogaz: three U.S. LNG cargoes in Q1 2026 (≥300 mcm) — ORLEN press release; Naftogaz release; Polish Radio; Kyiv Independent, Nov. 7–8, 2025Energy attrition context: Reuters refinery capacity tally, Sept. 1, 2025. (Reuters)Gas flows & the Yamal reality check — Bruegel (end of transit via Ukraine, Jan. 1, 2025); Gas Strategies (financial impact); Oxford Energy (transit mechanics)Operational/tech framing of the strike campaign — CSIS analyses, 2025----------