Good evening, and welcome to your daily market update for Monday, December first, twenty twenty five.

U.S. equities moved higher today in a quiet holiday shortened week. The S&P five hundred gained three point seven four percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed three point two percent, and the NASDAQ Composite surged four point nine one percent. These gains helped the S&P five hundred close November with a modest positive return of zero point two five percent after dropping nearly five percent earlier in the month, marking its seventh consecutive month of gains for the year.

The primary driver pushing markets upward today was renewed optimism surrounding a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December policy meeting. Market expectations now reflect roughly an eighty percent probability of a rate reduction when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on December tenth, a dramatic shift from just a week earlier when the odds sat around thirty percent. Comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly, who called the labor market vulnerable, and from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who explicitly endorsed a December cut, significantly influenced investor sentiment. Additionally, weakening economic data including softer than expected retail sales and declining producer price figures supported the dovish expectations.

The ten year U.S. Treasury briefly dipped below the four percent level, though it failed to sustain those lower levels. Looking ahead, listeners should watch for November business activity data from the Institute for Supply Management, which will offer clues about hiring and inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure index, will be released on Friday, though it will reflect September data.

The municipal bond market remained quiet during the Thanksgiving week, with roughly sixteen billion dollars in new supply expected for the first week of December.

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