Your guide to tariffs and the global shift underway.
We review the forces reshaping our existing economic systems and analyze their potential consequences without advocating for specific policies.
Overall, we paint a picture of a global trading system at a potential inflection point, with the US considering significant policy shifts using tariffs and currency tools in response to perceived imbalances and national security concerns. These changes could lead to a reordering of global financial and trade relationships, increased market volatility, and a potential move towards a multipolar world with a less dominant US dollar. Understanding these potential tools and their consequences is crucial for investors and policymakers alike.
These potential shifts have significant financial market consequences, including increased volatility. Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that there would be damage to the economy from tariffs and suggested there is no "Fed put" under risk assets in this scenario. In contrast, a "put" under government bonds might emerge if Treasury markets become dysfunctional. Investors need to be mindful of non-linear risks and consider that the traditional post-WWII world order may not remain stable. The possibility of dollar devaluation could make gold and silver attractive as potential safe havens.
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