Domestic identity in a geopolitically-contested territory can trigger blow-ups between superpowers. This has been seen in Ukraine, where a growing sovereign identity may have provoked Putin to attack. The upcoming Taiwanese elections may prove a flashpoint in the country’s fragile relationship with China, previously held together by the disputed ‘1992 Consensus’, The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – which disputes the 1992 consensus – has been in power since 2016 and is the frontrunner in the upcoming election, while the more pro-China KMT has weakened. If the DPP were to secure another victory, it may catapult China into stronger action to protect its interests in Taiwan. The response of the US remains a key unknown with mixed messages coming from the country’s administration. If the US were to launch sanctions, or a military invasion, it would prove profoundly destabilising for the global economy and financial markets. The election will be watched closely.