On this Thursday morning, NHC is closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a during the next five days. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.

Elsewhere, shower activity associated with a weak surface trough located about 200 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has diminished, and upper-level winds remain strong in the area.  Development of this system is not expected while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next couple of days. It has a near zero chance of development during the next 48 hours and five days. www.hurricanes.gov