Scary fact: fertility rates across the West have plummeted to alarmingly low levels, marking a significant demographic shift. Most Western countries now have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) well below the 'replacement level' of approximately 2.1 children per woman—the rate needed to maintain a population size without migration. For instance, the European Union's TFR hit a historical low of just 1.38 live births per woman in 2023, with countries like Spain and Italy seeing rates as low as 1.12 and 1.2 respectively. This downward trend is a major societal change, driven by the rising cost of living, delayed parenthood, and economic uncertainty.

The long-term impact of these plummeting rates presents profound challenges for Western societies. The most immediate concern is a rapidly ageing population and a resulting shrinking workforce. This demographic imbalance places immense strain on public finances, as fewer working-age people are left to fund the increasing costs of pensions and healthcare for a growing number of elderly citizens. A smaller, older population can also lead to slower economic growth due to labour shortages, forcing Western nations to fundamentally reorganise their societies and policy approaches.

With Kirsten Karchmer, CEO of Conceivable

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