Russia’s latest hybrid warfare push is turning up the heat on NATO and the European Union. In September 2025, Moscow launched a series of bold airspace provocations — including a massive drone swarm into Poland and repeated fighter jet incursions over the Baltic states — to probe NATO’s defenses and test Western resolve.
Poland and Estonia quickly invoked Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, prompting emergency consultations and the launch of Operation Eastern Sentry to strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank. But the crisis has exposed a sharp divide inside NATO: while the alliance has opted for a cautious, measured response, Poland has vowed to shoot down any unauthorized aircraft, a hardline stance it calls “deterrence by declaration.”
Meanwhile, the European Union rolled out sweeping new aviation sanctions against Russia, signaling a united front even as questions linger over how to counter these low-cost, high-impact “gray zone” tactics. This episode breaks down the escalating confrontation, the diplomatic chess match, and what it all means for NATO’s future strategy.
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