A bank robber smeared lemon juice on his face to beat security cameras.The twist: his mistake reveals a bias steering elections, boardrooms, and your feed.In this episode of The Rabbit Hole Chronicles, Percival Blackwood dives into the Confidence Trap (aka the Dunning–Kruger effect): why those least skilled feel most certain—and how power and platforms can supercharge that certainty into catastrophe. From McArthur Wheeler’s jaw‑dropping heist to leadership failures and algorithmic amplification, we map the cognitive bug that looks like a feature.What you’ll learnThe real story behind the “lemon juice robber” and what it provesHow the Dunning–Kruger effect hides itself from the people it trapsWhy feedback often fails (“the double curse”)—and what actually helpsHow confident ignorance rises to power (and how institutions try to contain it)Practical checks to avoid overconfidence in your own decisions0:00 The Invisible Man: A Tale of Certainty0:30 The 10-Second Certainty Test (Take the Challenge!)1:03 The Trap Revealed: Confidence vs. Fact-Checking1:39 The Origins of the Fallacy: McArthur Wheeler's Story2:43 The Double Curse: Ignorance of Your Ignorance3:29 Confidence as Catastrophe: Real-World Examples5:10 The Algorithm's Blind Spot: Social Media & Democracy6:06 Is It Just Math? The Statistical Counter-Argument6:41 A Darker Truth: Is Dunning-Kruger Evolutionary?7:11 Containment Failing: The Unstoppable Force7:39 Your Invisible Juice: The Unsettling Conclusion8:50 Outro: The Rabbit Hole Chronicles