Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen are co-founders of Manifold Markets, an online play-money prediction market and competitive forecasting platform. Stephen currently serves on the company’s management, while Austin recently stepped down to start Manifund, a unique, open-source grant program. This video is not sponsored in any way by Manifold, Manifund, or Manifest - I just think they’re cool.

Chapters

0:00 - Intro

Part 1: Stephen Grugett

1:20 - Are prediction markets actually bad?

4:11 - Would Manifold use real money if allowed?

5:24 - How Manifold would use real money if allowed

6:08 - Would Manifold use crypto if allowed?

7:17 - Can you ever get long-term returns from prediction markets?

10:01 - Would subsidies ruin markets?

11:23 - Why Manifold beat real money on predicting the 2022 elections

16:00 - Would Stephen implement futarchy?

19:54 - Manifold Love

23:22 - Bet on Love

26:21 - Why Manifold is miscalibrated

29:06 - Insider trading and market manipulation

31:42 - Is it easier to make money on prediction markets or normal markets?

32:37 - Good prediction market UI

34:35 - Why should people trust market creators?

35:34 - Derivatives on prediction markets

37:20 - Stephen’s ginseng adventures

40:55 - Audience Q: why don’t Americans consume American ginseng?

41:35 - Audience Q: cancel culture and Richard Hanania

45:50 - Audience Q: why aren’t there more institutional investors in prediction markets?

47:33 - Audience Q: can journalists help resolve markets?

49:45 - Audience Q: is there any role for sweepstakes other than regulatory arbitrage?

Part 2: Austin Chen

51:14 - Are prediction markets insufficiently powerful?

54:22 - What prediction markets can do if not futarchy

55:36 - How Manifund was designed

59:35 - How Manifund chooses regrantors

1:00:49 - Why donate to Manifund?

1:03:09 - Does Dustin Moskovitz have too much power over EA?

1:04:29 - What Manifund would do differently with more money

1:05:52 - How Manifest gets so many interesting people

1:09:10 - How much did SBF’s fall damage EA?

1:10:04 - OpenAI

1:11:54 - Is this decade more important than other decades?

1:13:01 - Why aren’t more philanthropic organizations open?

1:15:35 - Manifund’s best projects

1:17:25 - How short AGI timelines would affect Manifund

1:19:21 - Audience Q: how Manifold ships fast

1:22:11 - Outro

Links

Manifold: https://manifold.markets

Manifund: https://manifund.com

Manifest: https://www.manifest.is

Manifold’s Twitter: https://x.com/manifoldmarkets

Manifund’s Twitter: https://x.com/manifund

Austin’s Twitter: https://x.com/akrolsmir

Transcript: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/16-stephen-grugett-and-austin-chen

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