In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
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In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
Episode 66: Inside the refining crunch: Saudi supply shifts & sanctions fallout
Trade with Conviction
25 minutes
1 week ago
Episode 66: Inside the refining crunch: Saudi supply shifts & sanctions fallout
This episode breaks down a week of tightening global oil product markets - from Saudi Arabia’s surprising crude allocations and renewed sanctions turbulence to refinery capacity constraints dominating trader chatter. The team dissects what’s behind surging distillate spreads, gasoline’s structural strength, and the interplay between arbitrage flows, refining runs, and global inventories heading into winter. With volatility rising across barrels, the discussion zeroes in on what could cool - or further inflame - product cracks as maintenance winds down.
Key Takeaways:
Why Saudi’s lower-than-expected December allocations to China raised eyebrows
The latest sanctions snarl — and what it means for Russian crude flows and European refineries
Distillate spreads hit 2022-style highs: are refiners running hard enough to meet demand?
West Africa’s gasoline pull tightening global balances
Arbitrage routes reshaping between US Gulf, Europe, and Asia
The refinery capacity story everyone’s suddenly talking about
Chapters:
(00:55) Market Setup & Saudi SurprisesRachel and Phil kick off with the week’s headlines — Saudi allocations to China, sanctions fallout, and signs of refinery tightness ahead.
(04:31) Distillate Spreads on FireJames explains the surge in gasoil cracks, East-West shifts, and why refiners might struggle to keep up with diesel demand.
(09:40) Gasoline Strength & Atlantic ArbsJorge digs into record-high gasoline cracks, West Africa’s pull, and how tight US and European stocks are reshaping trade routes.
(16:00) Naphtha Market Round-Up
Asian premiums rise as sanctions squeeze Russian supply — and backwardation keeps the East-West structure historically strong.
(18:07) Crude, Fuel Oil & Refinery BottlenecksPhil wraps up with crude market quirks, weak low-sulfur resid, and the broader refinery capacity story driving everything from octane to VGO.
(23:21) Outlook & Sign-OffThe team shares what they’re watching next - refinery restarts, inventories, and how the market resets heading into year-end.
Trade with Conviction
In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
