Episode 12 of the @TradingPlacesPod featuring Sean Engel from Top Tier Capital Partners is out now!
This week: Are we in an AI bubble (again)? Data center capacity constraints meet infinite hyperscaler ambition, SoftBank sells Nvidia (again!) to bet on OpenAI, and venture secondaries are the new must-have strategy for every LP trying to escape the 15-year fund cycle.
00:00 - cold open/intro
00:53 - [ tech & vc news ]
01:01 - 2025 IPO roundup
02:00 - IPOs: Klook, Pine Labs, Groww
06:56 - Indian IPO market
07:57 - AI datacenter growth (6 charts)
15:54 - China solar growth (4 charts)
16:45 - Softbank sells NVDA (buys OpenAI)
18:43 - xAI raises @ $200B val
21:46 - Robinhood ETF in AI startups
24:46 - Cursor @ $29B, Lovable @ $6B
27:59 - Gamma AI @ $2B
30:01 - [ intvw: sean engel / top tier capital ]
30:54 - “started from the bottom…”
32:18 - Paul Capital spinout -> Top Tier
32:18 - core thesis: VC Fund-of-Funds (FoF)
32:58 - Velocity: Co-invest, LP/GP 2ndry
39:59 - Bubble or not? (yes, a bit)
44:00 - secondary discounts, bargains
38:44 - selling secondary to generate DPI
51:34 - more acquisitions in 2ndry market?
32:18 - VC FoF + VC 2ndry partnerships
1:09:55 - [ val corner: kraken / crypto exchanges ]
01:10:05 - kraken vs. binance, coinbase
01:15:55 - robinhood moving into crypto
01:17:06 - profile: arjun sethi / kraken, tribe
01:20:34 - valuation update
[ trading places podcast = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ]
[ sean engel = https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-engel-toptier ]
[ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ]
[ dave mcclure = https://linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]
Pod Highlights This Week:
Sean Engel on bubbles: "There are pockets of bubbles playing out right now for sure." Seed-stage AI deals at multi-billion dollar valuations on a promise? Scratching our heads on risk-adjusted returns.
The beauty of venture: Liquidity events let you harvest all that hard work that wasn't obvious along the journey—but you gotta be patient (or sell smart).
Top Tier's Velocity Fund: Target 2X base case, 3X good days, 1.5X bad days—tighter standard deviation than traditional VC, with DPI in 4-6 years instead of 10-15.
Tale of Two Cities: AI-native companies at 300%+ growth vs. traditional SaaS at 40-50% growth trading at massive discounts. Both can win, but LPs need blended exposure.
2021 Lessons Learned: GPs are finally taking 10-20% liquidity off the table early instead of swinging for another turn. Zero-interest rates made everyone look like geniuses—until they didn't.
Secondary market maturation: GP-led continuation vehicles and LP portfolio buys are coming to venture from PE-land. Top Tier sells AND buys to optimize liquidity every single year.
SoftBank's Nvidia regret: Sold its entire stake for $6B to invest in OpenAI. They sold in 2019 for $3.3B too—would've been worth $150B today. Sellers' remorse is real.
Data center capacity crunch: Hyperscalers planning 60+ gigawatts of capacity by 2027, but energy and permitting constraints mean 5-10 year build-out. To justify hundreds of billions in spend, you need trillions in revenue. That's more than Apple's entire annual revenue.
Kraken at $15B: 10X sales, raised from Thrive Capital and Sequoia China (now HongShan). Then Citadel dropped $800M hours after we recorded. Ken Griffin warming to crypto = institutional legitimacy unlocked.
Cursor raises $2.3B at $29B valuation: From $1M to $100M to $1B ARR in three years. Might be the fastest startup ever. Jensen Huang called it his favorite enterprise AI service. 30X this year's ARR.
**#davemcclure #tradingplacespod #toptier #secondarymarket #venturecapital #fundoffunds #bubble #aibubble #kraken #coinbase #binance #citadel #softbank #nvidia #openai #datacenter #hyperscaler #cursor #gamma #robinhood #ipomarket #dpi #tvpi #thrivecapital #valuationcorner