Wheat Market Outlook - November 17, 2025

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Wheat Market Outlook

Sask Wheat

240 episodes

5 days ago

Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

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Wheat Market Outlook - November 17, 2025

Wheat Market Outlook

9 minutes 58 seconds

5 days ago

Wheat Market Outlook - November 17, 2025

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan were touching crop marketing year highs this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped bring the markets higher. Strong export demand has elevators working to keep the product in their system. The USDA WASDE tacked on more production to global wheat balance sheets but keep in mind the usage levels were raised as well. The overall balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increases were somewhat anticipated by the market heading into the USDA’s report. The market wasanticipating at least slight bumps to Argentinian, Australian, Canadian, and Russian levels prior to the report's release. The ending stocks data is well illustrated in the charts below. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values are gaining ground. As always, demand needs to be watched closely as there are larger crops to be moving but if export pace remains on track, it could keep ending stocks from becoming burdensome in Canada. Markets have a good understanding of the global supplies, and we will finish off theAustralian and Argentinian harvests in the coming weeks. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand is the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Italian buyers are cautious due to proposed pasta tariffs of 92 per cent into theUnited States, although these are expected to be postponed for the time being. They were initially threatened to take place in January. Markets will need to see import demand from Italy and North Africa as we head into winter season to keep bids stable. Saskatchewan durum bids are on average $8 CDN per tonne off the harvest lows set late September and are showing a flatline pace for the time being. There is anticipated to be ample supplies in the marketplace for the time being to meet current export demand. Quality is less than last year with 38 per cent of the durum in the #3 category and 15 per cent in #4 and #5 CWAD combined. Tunisia tendered for durum for the first time since the beginning of the year in January and came in at $323 to $326 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes.