Listeners, welcome to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, your quick briefing on how shifting tariff policies between Washington and Ottawa are reshaping the Canadian economy.

Let’s start with the latest moves north of the border. According to Norton Rose Fulbright, Canada is rolling out aggressive new trade measures to shield its steel and lumber sectors following United States tariff actions and global overcapacity. Beginning December 26, Canada will cut back its tariff rate quotas on certain imported steel, meaning more foreign steel will face a steep 50 percent surtax once quarterly limits are hit. On top of that, Ottawa is imposing a new 25 percent global tariff on a wide range of steel derivative products, regardless of where they come from. The federal government is also tightening enforcement, with a dedicated Canada Border Services Agency steel compliance team and a “Buy Canadian” policy that prioritizes Canadian steel, aluminum, and softwood lumber in large federal projects.

These moves are unfolding against a backdrop of elevated U.S. tariffs championed by President Trump. A Datawrapper analysis of the “new 2025 policy” shows the **average effective U.S. tariff rate on imports from Canada** now sitting in the mid-teens, roughly around 13 percent before preferences and more than 17 percent when fully phased in. That is a dramatic break from the pre‑trade‑war era of near‑zero most‑favored‑nation rates and directly affects Canadian exporters in metals, autos, and agriculture.

At the same time, the Trump administration’s tariff program is under intense legal and political pressure. Politico reports that as of the end of October, Washington has collected about 1.97 billion U.S. dollars in tariffs on Canadian goods under emergency authorities that are now being challenged at the U.S. Supreme Court. Trade lawyers warn that if the Court finds Trump exceeded his powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, some of those duties could be refunded, a potential windfall for Canadian firms that have paid into the system.

Yet the tariff story is more complicated than headline rates. Another Politico investigation finds that roughly half of all U.S. imports are now exempt from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, thanks to a patchwork of carve‑outs, special deals, and product‑specific exclusions. Trump insists these exemptions are “not a big deal,” but for Canadian businesses, it means navigating a constantly shifting map of applied rates, exemptions, and potential refunds rather than a single clear tariff schedule.

For Canadian manufacturers, farmers, and logistics planners, the message is clear: U.S. tariffs on Canada are higher and more volatile than at any time in decades, and Canada is responding with its own mix of defensive tariffs, surtaxes, and procurement preferences. Staying on top of these changes is no longer optional; it is central to pricing, sourcing, and investment decisions on both sides of the border.

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Welcome to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, your essential update on the evolving US-Canada trade landscape under President Trump's second term. Trade Compliance Resource Hub's Trump 2.0 Tariff Tracker reveals Canada remains exempt from the US's 10% baseline reciprocal tariff implemented April 5, 2025, but faces targeted "fentanyl" tariffs effective March 4, 2025, adjusted through August 1. These hit at 0% for USMCA duty-free goods, 10% for energy, energy resources, and potash, and 35% for all other products. On October 25, President Trump threatened to hike this fentanyl rate by another 10%, intensifying pressure amid border security concerns.

Canada's countermeasures include repealing its fentanyl and steel-aluminum surtaxes plus a $30 billion hit on US goods effective September 1, while imposing a 25% automobile surtax. Scotiabank's December 11 economics report notes US customs data showing only 10-15% of Canadian imports now face tariffs, down from 20-25% in 2024, with Canada's effective export tariff rate to the US at a manageable 6.3%. Actual duties paid averaged 3.9% in September, rising as pre-tariff inventories deplete—yet most trade flows freely under CUSMA, the rebranded USMCA.

Headlines underscore tensions: Common Dreams reports the US trade deficit with Canada and Mexico ballooned to $263 billion in 2025 from $125 billion in 2020, per Economic Policy Institute analysis, claiming USMCA created more problems than it fixed, with US manufacturing jobs lost. Finimize highlights thinning buffers as new tariffs bite harder this fall. Mondaq timelines key shifts, like Canada's steel tariff rate quotas dropping to 20% of historic volumes for non-FTA countries effective December 26. Holland & Knight covers the USTR's December 3-5 hearing on USMCA's six-year review, where stakeholders debated its state amid sectoral tariffs weighing on Canada's economy.

These fluid policies fuel uncertainty—transshipment penalties at 40% for Canada started August 1, and threats loom on dairy, lumber at 250%, plus potential DST probes. US tariffs stoke inflation south of the border, per Scotiabank, slowing Fed cuts.

Stay vigilant, listeners—this landscape shifts fast.

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Trump is intensifying his trade pressure on Canada this week, with significant implications for the fertilizer industry and broader cross-border commerce. The President has threatened steep tariffs on Canadian fertilizer supplies, a move that has already sparked pushback from U.S. agriculture groups and Republican lawmakers in farming states. More than half of Canada's potash supply flows to the United States, making this a critical pressure point in Trump's trade strategy.

In response to agricultural concerns, Trump has already lowered the tariff on fertilizer as well as Canadian energy products following resistance from farming interests and Republican representatives. This indicates the administration's willingness to negotiate, though uncertainty remains about what final rates will be implemented. The tariff threats come as part of Trump's broader push for more fertilizer production within the United States, though no specific timeline has been provided for achieving that goal.

On the Canadian side, the country is fighting back with its own trade measures. Effective December 26th of this year, Canada will impose a 25 percent tariff on the full value of listed steel derivative products from all countries. This move represents Canada's strategic response to ongoing trade tensions and signals the country's readiness to protect its own industries against tariff pressure.

The broader context shows Trump pursuing aggressive industry-specific trade deals, often backed by the threat of tariffs. This approach is reshaping North American trade relationships at a critical moment. While the administration suggests that tariff relief and new trade agreements may eventually temper food costs by reducing import costs, the immediate outlook remains volatile. The fertilizer situation is particularly concerning because U.S. reserves are insufficient to meet domestic demand if Canadian supplies are restricted, creating real pressure on American farmers and food producers.

Listeners should watch for developments in the coming weeks, particularly as we approach year-end deadlines. The interplay between Trump's tariff threats and actual implementation will determine whether these measures succeed in reshaping North American manufacturing or instead disrupt supply chains and increase costs for American consumers and agriculture. The fact that Trump has already made concessions on fertilizer tariffs suggests negotiations are ongoing, but the fundamental uncertainty about final rates continues to cloud business planning across the continent.

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Listeners, welcome to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, where we cut through the noise on cross‑border trade so you can follow how U.S. and Trump-era tariff moves are reshaping Canada’s economy.

The big story is uncertainty. According to The Canadian Press reporting in the Winnipeg Sun, the Bank of Canada has spent much of this year trying to navigate the fallout from new U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures, warning that these trade actions risk a “stagflationary shock” — weaker growth combined with higher inflation driven partly by tariff costs being passed through to consumers. Governor Tiff Macklem has highlighted how tariff-related price distortions have even made it harder for the bank to read its own core inflation indicators, one reason markets now expect the policy rate to hold at about 2.25 percent as we head into 2026.

On the U.S. side, the Trump administration’s tariff regime is still evolving. AOL’s recent analysis of the 2025 tariff package notes that Washington has imposed a 10 percent blanket tariff on almost all U.S. imports, but Canada, along with Mexico and China, is temporarily exempt from that across‑the‑board rate. That exemption matters: it preserves a cost advantage for Canadian exporters into the U.S. market at a time when many other countries are paying more at the border. But it is also fragile, because the White House has signaled that nothing about North American trade is off the table.

Trump has repeatedly tied those exemptions and any future tariff hikes to ongoing talks over the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement. In recent comments carried by News9 Live, he said that the United States may renegotiate USMCA again or even exit the deal altogether, framing Canada and Mexico as “very tough traders” and insisting that if the United States does not get better terms, it will walk away. Firstpost reports that after a short trilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump said trade discussions with Canada are continuing and, in his words, “we’ll work it out,” even as he has suspended some talks in response to political disputes and threatened higher duties on Canadian goods without yet implementing them.

For Canadian businesses and workers, analysts are urging a sober look at the real numbers. The Western Producer quotes market strategist Moez Utarid as saying that while headline U.S. tariff rates were advertised as high as 25 percent, the effective rate has been closer to 11 percent because of carve‑outs and targeting. He notes that the United States largely spared critical Canadian exports such as potash and certain agricultural and strategic inputs, using tariffs more as “calculated leverage” than a blunt trade war. Still, he warns there is no guarantee tariffs will be rolled back, and Canadian producers should plan for a world where North American trade rules can shift quickly with U.S. politics.

For now, Canada’s tariff landscape with the U.S. is defined by exemptions that could disappear, a trade deal facing a mandated 2026 review, and a central bank trying to steer the economy through price shocks partly fueled by cross‑border duties and supply‑chain shifts. We will keep tracking any moves on blanket U.S. rates, sector‑specific tariffs affecting Canadian exports, and the political brinkmanship around USMCA that could reset the rules again.

Thanks for tuning in to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, and make sure to subscribe so you never miss an update on how U.S. and Trump tariff decisions are impacting Canada. This has been a quiet please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.

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Listeners, welcome back to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, your focused look at how Washington’s trade moves are reshaping Canada’s economy.

According to The Straits Times and Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump has now **increased tariffs on most Canadian goods outside the USMCA to 35 per cent, up from 25 per cent**, under a sweeping executive order signed July 31. These higher duties hit Canadian exports that are not fully compliant with the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, with especially sharp pressure on lumber, steel, aluminum, and autos.

The White House is branding this the “fentanyl tariff,” arguing that Canada has failed to do enough to stop cross‑border flows of the drug, even though, as Mark Carney’s government notes, Canada accounts for only about 1 per cent of U.S. fentanyl imports and has already tightened controls. The order goes further: a transshipment levy of **40 per cent** will apply to Canadian goods routed through third countries in an attempt to dodge the new rate, according to the same White House fact sheet reported by The Straits Times.

A running Trump 2.0 tariff tracker from the Trade Compliance Resource Hub describes this Canada measure as part of a broader “fentanyl” tariff regime: **0 per cent for USMCA‑duty‑free goods, 10 per cent on potash, and now 35 per cent on almost everything else**, with the administration having floated additional increases this fall. That structure is pushing Canadian firms to maximize USMCA compliance or shift production and markets away from the U.S.

The economic fallout is already visible. Canadian government data cited by The Straits Times shows the share of Canadian exports going to the U.S. fell by about 10 percentage points, down to 68 per cent between May 2024 and May 2025, as manufacturers, especially in autos and metal‑intensive products, scramble to diversify. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has publicly urged Ottawa to respond with **counter‑tariffs of up to 50 per cent** on U.S. steel and aluminum, signaling that a full‑blown bilateral trade war is now a live risk.

At the same time, the National Post reports that Carney has quietly scrapped Canada’s planned 3 per cent digital services tax after Trump threatened to halt trade talks if it went ahead. Trade experts quoted in that piece argue that while rolling back the DST may spare Canada another front in this tariff conflict, it has not bought much goodwill in Washington, where tariffs remain the administration’s go‑to tool for leverage.

For Canada, this moment is about more than tariff percentages. It is about whether a highly integrated, export‑driven economy can weather a prolonged period in which its largest trading partner uses border taxes as a primary instrument of foreign and domestic policy.

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Donald Trump’s renewed tariff push is reshaping Canada–US trade, and Canada is feeling both the pressure and the opportunity as supply chains tilt toward the Western Hemisphere. According to Politico’s recent interview with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the Trump administration’s strategy now places the lowest tariff rates in the Western Hemisphere to encourage companies to “nearshore” production into countries like Canada and Mexico, while keeping much higher tariffs on China and parts of Asia. [4] For Canadian exporters plugged into North American supply chains, that positioning is an advantage, but it comes against the backdrop of stalled high‑level talks and a tougher tariff environment on key Canadian sectors. [3][4]

Fox Business reports that President Trump abruptly halted formal trade talks with Canada in October after an anti‑tariff ad campaign out of Ontario, leaving the USMCA framework in place but political engagement at a low simmer. [3] Under USMCA, about 85% of Canadian exports to the US still enter tariff‑free, which continues to anchor Canada’s access to its largest market, but Canadian business leaders warn that relying on the agreement alone, without active diplomacy, risks leaving punitive sector‑specific tariffs in place longer. [3] With roughly a quarter of Canada’s GDP tied to trade and three‑quarters of that with the US, every percentage point on tariff lines for autos, metals, and energy matters directly to Canadian jobs and investment decisions. [3]

The sharpest pain points today are in heavy industry and autos. Fox Business notes that Canada now faces global US tariffs of around 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper products, 25% tariffs on Canadian‑made passenger vehicles based on non‑US content, and roughly 10% tariffs on non‑USMCA‑compliant energy exports such as crude oil and natural gas. [3] Canada rolled back most of its counter‑tariffs earlier this fall, keeping retaliatory measures mainly on steel, aluminum, and non‑USMCA‑compliant autos, signaling a strategy of de‑escalation while hoping Washington blinks first. [3] For listeners in the manufacturing heartland, that means continued uncertainty on input costs, investment timing, and whether to retool plants for higher North American content to dodge the harshest rates.

From Washington’s side, the message is that tariffs are here to stay as a core policy tool, not a temporary shock. Politico’s piece on Greer underscores a tiered tariff world: the highest rates on China due to the trade deficit and “unfair practices,” the next tier on Southeast Asia and India, then around 15% on allies like Europe, Japan, and Korea, with the Western Hemisphere treated as the relatively low‑tariff safe zone. [4] For Canada, that reinforces two realities: first, relative to Asia and Europe, it remains one of the safer havens for exporters into the US market; second, within that haven, specific Canadian sectors can still be singled out for aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs if political or sectoral disputes flare. [4][5]

Looking ahead, analysts at firms such as PIMCO argue that the 2025 tariff and tax mix has raised costs unevenly across industries while nudging companies toward automation and reshoring. [2] That dynamic is already visible in cross‑border investment flows, as firms weigh whether to expand in Canada or the US to minimize exposure to future tariff shocks while still serving North America as a single production base. [2][7] For Canadian policymakers, the challenge will be to leverage Canada’s Western Hemisphere advantage, deepen continental supply chains, and still push back where targeted US tariffs threaten key sectors like autos, energy, and metals.

Thanks for tuning in to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an update on how trade politics in Washington are hitting Canadian businesses and workers. This has been a quiet please production, for...

Welcome to Canada Tariff News and Tracker. I'm your host, and we're diving straight into what's happening at the Canada-US border right now.

The situation is heating up. Since President Trump imposed widespread tariffs on Canadian goods, border crossings into Washington have declined significantly. This isn't just a minor trade dispute anymore. Trump has made aggressive moves, even hinting at making Canada the 51st state, which has only intensified the uncertainty facing Canadian businesses and workers on both sides of the border.

Here's where things stand with the actual tariffs. Back in April 2025, the Trump administration announced tariffs that excluded certain products like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber articles, and copper and gold. But those exclusions don't cover most of what Canada exports to the United States, which means the impact on Canadian industries has been substantial.

What's particularly concerning for listeners is that there may ultimately be no comprehensive trade deal between Canada and the United States. Industry analysts are warning that if a deal does materialize, it will likely be narrow and limited in scope, not the kind of omnibus agreement that would address all the tariff issues Canadian businesses are facing right now.

The economic fallout is real. According to recent reports, firms are currently making use of inventories and ample profit margins to absorb the initial impact of these higher tariff rates. But that's only a temporary cushion. Once those inventory buffers run out, we're going to see the real effects hit consumers and businesses across Canada.

On the positive side, there are some diplomatic efforts underway. The US and Canada have been engaged in discussions around trade cooperation, and there's been ongoing dialogue through various government channels. The US Trade Representative's office held a public hearing on the first joint review of USMCA in December, suggesting that conversations about trade frameworks are still happening. But listeners should know that these formal processes often move slowly, and the tariff pressures aren't waiting.

The Port of LA closed on 10 million TEUs in 2025, showing just how much trade volume is at stake in this relationship. Canadian exporters need to be watching these numbers closely because they signal how quickly trade patterns could shift.

If you're a business owner, a worker, or simply someone concerned about what tariffs mean for prices and jobs, this situation demands your attention. The uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon.

Thank you for tuning in to Canada Tariff News and Tracker. Don't forget to subscribe to stay updated on how this situation develops. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more, check out quietplease dot ai.

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Canada's economy faced significant turbulence in 2025, with the trade war against the United States emerging as the defining economic story of the year. The most damaging blow came through tariffs targeting Canadian steel and softwood lumber, which pushed export volumes downward and created uncertainty for major industries.

The Trump administration's aggressive use of Section 232 tariff authority has created a complex landscape for Canadian exporters. Steel, aluminum, and copper products now face a 50 percent tariff rate following investigations into their effect on U.S. national security. However, Canada has negotiated some relief through bilateral trade agreements. Under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement framework, certain automotive imports receive preferential treatment, with tariffs applying only to non-U.S. content rather than the full 25 percent baseline on all foreign car imports.

The softwood lumber sector experienced particular pain, with Section 232 tariffs becoming effective on October 14, 2025. Softwood lumber and timber imports are subject to a 10 percent tariff, while more processed products face steeper rates. Kitchen cabinets and vanities imported into the United States now face 25 percent tariffs, scheduled to jump to 50 percent starting January 1, 2026. Upholstered furniture currently sits at 25 percent and will rise to 30 percent on the same date.

For Canadian automakers and suppliers, the situation remains complicated. While the baseline 25 percent tariff applies to passenger vehicles and light trucks, USMCA-qualifying vehicles benefit from having tariffs apply only to non-U.S. content. Medium and heavy-duty vehicle imports and parts face 25 percent tariffs as of November 1, 2025, though USMCA-qualifying parts currently enjoy exemptions while the Department of Commerce develops implementation procedures.

Looking ahead, listeners should monitor several developing investigations that could impact Canadian trade further. Investigations into semiconductors, critical minerals, and pharmaceuticals remain ongoing, with potential tariff implementations looming. The critical minerals investigation launched in April carries particular significance given supply chain dynamics, though Canada is positioned differently than China in these discussions.

Importers and exporters are advised to stay alert to bilateral negotiations that may provide relief or create new complications. The Trump administration continues developing trade agreements that could reshape tariff landscapes, as evidenced by recent deals with other trading partners.

Thank you for tuning in to Canada Tariff News and Tracker. Please subscribe to stay updated on how these tariffs continue to evolve and impact Canadian businesses and workers. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more, check out quietplease.ai.

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Welcome to Canada Tariff News and Tracker. I'm your host, and today we're breaking down the latest developments in the tariff landscape that's reshaping trade between the United States and Canada.

As of late November 2025, Canada continues to navigate one of the most turbulent trade periods in recent history. The situation has evolved dramatically since Trump's return to office in January. What started with threats has transformed into a complex web of tariffs, retaliatory measures, and ongoing negotiations that directly impact Canadian workers, businesses, and the broader economy.

Here's where things stand right now. Canada is facing a 35 percent tariff on imports starting August 1st, though goods that comply with the USMCA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, have been largely exempted. This exemption covers roughly 95 percent of Canadian exports, providing some critical relief. However, non-compliant goods, particularly steel, aluminum, and auto parts, remain under significant pressure with 25 percent tariffs in place.

The impact has been severe. Economists are projecting that US tariffs will cause a 50 billion Canadian dollar reduction in Canada's GDP. Steel and aluminum sectors, which are heavily reliant on US markets, have been particularly hard hit. The broader picture shows that trade makes up two-thirds of Canada's GDP, and over 75 percent of Canadian exports head south of the border, making these tariff policies extraordinarily consequential for the nation's economic health.

Recent developments show that Canadian Prime Minister Chrystian Carney, who took office in March, has been working to reduce or eliminate US tariffs ahead of expected USMCA renegotiations next year. However, progress has been limited. The situation intensified when Ontario aired advertisements opposing Trump's tariffs, which he called a fraud. Trump subsequently threatened an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian goods, though he has since held off on implementing it.

Canada has responded strategically. The country ended 25 percent counter-tariffs on USMCA goods in September while maintaining 35 percent tariffs on non-USMCA products. Additionally, Canada has been exploring trade diversification to reduce its overwhelming dependence on the United States, recognizing that this unprecedented threat demands a broader economic strategy.

Looking ahead, Canadian businesses and policymakers face continued uncertainty as negotiations continue and the threat of further tariff escalation remains. The coming months will be critical as USMCA renegotiations approach and the Trump administration signals its next moves.

Thank you for tuning in to Canada Tariff News and Tracker. Be sure to subscribe for the latest updates on how these tariffs continue to shape the Canadian economy and your business. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more, check out quietplease.ai.

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