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China Perspectives
Fitch Ratings
45 episodes
3 weeks ago
China Perspectives series is a monthly discussion on the latest credit market and economic developments from China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.
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All content for China Perspectives is the property of Fitch Ratings and is served directly from their servers with no modification, redirects, or rehosting. The podcast is not affiliated with or endorsed by Podjoint in any way.
China Perspectives series is a monthly discussion on the latest credit market and economic developments from China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.
Show more...
Business
News,
Politics
Episodes (20/45)
China Perspectives
China-ASEAN Trade Flows Amid Global Trade Policy Uncertainty

Chris Clague, an Associate Fellow at the IISS and an independent advisor on trade and supply chains, discusses recent trends in China-ASEAN trade and investment flows, and how they may be affected by US President Trump’s tariff policies.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (02:04) - Overview of China/ASEAN trade and investment
  • (06:26) - Transshipments
  • (09:57) - Transshipment tariffs effect on China’s investment
  • (12:54) - China+1 strategy
  • (14:58) - Top destinations and sectors for Chinese investment
  • (17:35) - China’s role in global supply chains
  • (20:37) - How will ASEAN manage a surge in imports from China?
  • (24:13) - Conclusion
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2 months ago
25 minutes

China Perspectives
Regulatory Reforms of China AMCs

Katie Chen, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, and Franco Lam , Director, share their insights on the recent regulatory reforms in China’s AMC sector.

  • (00:48) - Recent regulatory reform and impact
  • (03:49) - Opportunities and challenges for AMCs
  • (07:01) - What investors should watch out for
  • (09:30) - Improvement in China AMCs’ capital buffer
  • (11:32) - China AMCs’ ownership changes
  • (13:54) - Rating actions on China AMCs
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4 months ago
17 minutes

China Perspectives
Key Credit Themes in China’s Power Generation Sector

This episode explores key changes and credit trends in China’s power sector, including renewables growth and market reforms. Insights from Penny Chen, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings, reveal what lies ahead for major power generators.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:45) - Key Changes in China’s Power Sector
  • (03:17) - Key Credit Themes for Power Generators
  • (06:16) - Credit Outlook on China’s Power Sector
  • (08:45) - China’s Modern Power System
  • (11:11) - Conclusion
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5 months ago
11 minutes

China Perspectives
Managing Risks from LGFVs and Local Government Debt Outlook

Harry Hu, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses China's recent efforts to manage LGFV risks, including LGFV reclassification and debt substitution plans, along with local government debt trends.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:30) - LGFV Debt Control Measures
  • (03:07) - LGFV Reclassification
  • (04:59) - LGFV Debt Substitution Plan
  • (06:55) - Outlook for Special Purpose Bonds
  • (09:34) - Local Government Interest Burdens
  • (11:14) - Conclusion

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7 months ago
12 minutes

China Perspectives
Impact of US Tariffs on China's Commodity Sectors

Laura Zhai, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses the impact of US tariff hikes on China's commodity sectors.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:41) - Impact on aluminum and copper
  • (04:43) - Impact on steel
  • (07:33) - Impact on chemicals
  • (10:28) - China’s energy import cost
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8 months ago
13 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s Tariff Challenges Rising Rapidly

Amid rapidly changing US trade policies, Fitch analysts, Alex Muscatelli and Janice Chong, discuss the macroeconomic and corporate level impacts on China from rising US tariffs.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (02:10) - Fitch’s Tariff Baseline
  • (04:30) - Modeling the Economic Impact of Tariffs
  • (07:12) - China’s Trade Diversification
  • (08:55) - Tariffs and China’s Economic Outlook
  • (11:01) - Corporate Sector Tariff Exposures
  • (13:30) - Mexico Tariffs and Chinese Corporates
  • (14:55) - Steel, Aluminum and Auto Tariffs
  • (16:48) - Corporate Tariff Risk Management
  • (17:39) - Impact on Shifting Supply Chains
  • (18:45) - Conclusion
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9 months ago
19 minutes

China Perspectives
China 2025 Credit Outlook

A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2025 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:47) - Macro and Sovereign Outlook
  • (03:33) - Impact of US Tariffs on China Corporates
  • (04:55) - Property sector outlook
  • (05:53) - Impact of Policy Simulus on Corporates
  • (07:10) - Local Government Finance Outlook
  • (08:36) - Hidden Debt Substitution Policy
  • (10:40) - LGFV Sector Risks
  • (12:40) - Impact of Rate Cuts on Banks
  • (15:24) - Asset Quality Outlook
  • (17:21) - Conclusion

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10 months ago
18 minutes

China Perspectives
A Perspective on China’s 2025 Macro Outlook

Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist at ICBC Standard Bank, discusses her outlook for China’s economy in 2025 and the government’s policy measures and priorities, particularly its focus on de-risking, diversifying and enhancing domestic capacity.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:01) - Key Issues to Watch in 2025
  • (02:32) - US/China Trade War Prospects
  • (06:29) - Assessing China’s Resilience to Trade Tensions
  • (11:12) - Property Sector
  • (17:11) - Inflation/Deflation Outlook
  • (20:13) - Monetary Policy Response
  • (23:57) - Fiscal Policy Response
  • (28:27) - Government Bond Market Drivers
  • (33:39) - Conclusion
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11 months ago
34 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s Solar PV Manufacturing Industry

Jing Yang, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s solar PV manufacturing industry.  

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:46) - Current state of the industry and reason for oversupply
  • (04:37) - Stage of market re-balancing
  • (08:00) - Effectiveness of government response
  • (13:02) - Impact of Trump 2.0 tariff hikes
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1 year ago
18 minutes

China Perspectives
Will China’s Stepped-Up Stimulus Push Off Deflationary Risks?

David Wang, Professor at the Virginia Tech Dept. of Economics and former Credit Suisse Head of APAC (ex-Japan)Economics, joins us to discuss deflationary risks in the Chinese economy and whether the recent policy stimulus can address these pressures.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:31) - China’s Economic Prospects
  • (05:10) - Drivers of deflationary pressures
  • (08:37) - Expectations for household confidence
  • (11:11) - New productive forces and labour productivity
  • (15:46) - Assessment of Recent Policy Actions
  • (17:37) - Fiscal Support and Consumption Policies
  • (26:16) - Risks of a deflationary spiral
  • (29:09) - High Leverage and deflation
  • (32:12) - Outro
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1 year ago
32 minutes

China Perspectives
Recent Trends in China’s Banking Sector

Elaine Xu, Director in Fitch’s Financial Institutions team, provides an update on how Chinese banks are managing the challenges from economic headwinds, the property correction, and LGFV debt renegotiations.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:38) - Recent trends in bank performance
  • (05:06) - Property sector stress impact on banks
  • (07:26) - Banks role in property policy response
  • (09:26) - LGFV exposures and debt renegotiations
  • (11:16) - Impact of LGFV debt renegotiations
  • (13:01) - Risks for small regional banks
  • (14:33) - Banks increased policy role and its impact
  • (15:40) - Conclusion
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1 year ago
16 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s Local Government and LGFV Debt Risk

Samuel Kwok, Head of Fitch’s APAC International Public Finance shares his views on China’s local government and LGFV debt problem.

  • (01:21) - 1H24 local governments’ fiscal trends
  • (04:02) - Expect marginal improvement in 2H24
  • (05:30) - Effect of measures to de-risk twelve “high-risk” provinces
  • (08:22) - LGFVs’ onshore bond yields at record low
  • (11:28) - Introduction of top three credit themes
  • (12:25) - Potential impact of reform measures pledged by Third Plenum
  • (14:21) - The second credit theme on social housing investment
  • (15:17) - The third credit theme on LGFV debt restrictions
  • (16:32) - Maintain a neutral credit outlook
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1 year ago
17 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s Housing Demand Forecast 2024 - 2040

Shuncheng Zhang, Associate Director of Fitch’s China Corporates Team based in Shanghai, shares China’s housing demand forecast from 2024 to 2040.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:05) - 2024-2040 Housing Demand
  • (03:43) - New Private Home Supply
  • (06:08) - Overview of Forecast Model
  • (09:13) - Factors Leading to Demand Plunge
  • (12:47) - Public and Secondary Housing Supply
  • (13:58) - Fitch’s Forecast vs. Others’
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1 year ago
15 minutes

China Perspectives
China Mid-Year Credit Update

Lan Wang, Senior Director in Fitch’s Credit Policy Group, joins for a wide-ranging discussion on China credit developments, including recent rating actions, growth prospects, property and banking sector outlooks, and recent EU tariffs on Chinese EVs.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:55) - China Sovereign Rating Action
  • (01:48) - Rating actions in other Chinese entities
  • (04:40) - 2024 Macro Outlook for China
  • (06:12) - Property Sector Prospects
  • (08:42) - Banking Sector Outlook
  • (10:58) - EU tariffs on Chinese EVs
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1 year ago
14 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s Changing Role in Global Commodity Market

Henry Hao, Principal Economist at CRU, discusses structural shifts of China’s role in the global commodity market.

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1 year ago
12 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s Coal Mining Industry

Wei Yu, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s coal mining industry.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:34) - View on coal prices
  • (02:00) - Debt reduction
  • (03:21) - Financial burden and structural challenges
  • (06:10) - Financing conditions
  • (07:23) - Energy transition risks
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1 year ago
9 minutes

China Perspectives
China-ASEAN Trade Trends

Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, discusses China-ASEAN trade ties focusing on key policy issues, supply chain diversification trends, and the outlook for the trade relationship amid rising geopolitical risks.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (04:43) - China-ASEAN Trade Trends
  • (07:02) - Impact of RCEP
  • (09:34) - Trade Policy Outlook
  • (13:50) - China’s View of ASEAN Trade Relationship
  • (16:26) - China’s Bilateral Surplus with ASEAN
  • (19:43) - Shifting Supply Chains and Navigating US-China Trade Tensions
  • (24:17) - How is China Protecting its ASEAN Trade Relationship from US-China Trade Tensions?
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1 year ago
26 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s Big Four National Asset Management Companies

Katie Chen, Senior Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s Big Four national asset management companies.  

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:30) - National AMCs' evolving risks
  • (04:35) - 2024 sector credit outlook
  • (06:49) - Government support stance
  • (10:08) - Differentiation in government export
  • (11:37) - National AMCs' policy role
  • (14:06) - Change of ownership
  • (16:44) - Rating action plan
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1 year ago
20 minutes

China Perspectives
China’s 2024 Credit Outlook

Jeremy Zook and Ying Wang, co-hosts of China Perspectives podcast, hold a fireside chat about China’s 2024 credit outlook. 

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:45) - 2024 macro view
  • (02:53) - Property sector outlook
  • (04:29) - Policy response
  • (07:17) - Infrastructure investment growth
  • (08:41) - Sovereign rating pressure
  • (11:10) - LGFV sector outlook
  • (13:31) - Corporate sector outlook
  • (16:21) - Banking sector outlook
  • (19:11) - Key things to watch out for
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1 year ago
21 minutes

China Perspectives
Chinese Corporates’ Role in Global Supply Chain Diversification

Flora Zhu, Director in Fitch’s Corporate Research team in Beijing discusses shifting FDI and trade patterns by Chinese corporates in the context of global supply chain diversification.

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:49) - Drivers of Outbound FDI
  • (03:48) - Key FDI Destinations
  • (06:04) - Sectors Driving Outbound FDI
  • (08:39) - Outlook for Outbound FDI
  • (10:29) - China’s Shifting Trade Patterns
  • (12:53) - Intermediate Goods Exports
  • (14:36) - Outlook for Chinese Firms’ Role in Global Supply Chains
  • (16:52) - Geopolitical Risks
  • (20:09) - Rating Implications for Chinese Corporates
  • (22:25) - Conclusion
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1 year ago
23 minutes

China Perspectives
China Perspectives series is a monthly discussion on the latest credit market and economic developments from China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.