Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller close out the final episode of the year by examining some key factors shaping markets heading into 2026 — from China’s growing gold purchases and efforts to build an alternative to the dollar system, to what a more dovish Fed could mean for the dollar and bonds. They discuss the risk of earnings disappointment next year, the importance of maintaining investment discipline amid market temptations, and their outlook for hard assets in a world shifting toward a multipolar global order.
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In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2026. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including stablecoins, spheres of influence, and data centers.
Confluence's official 2026 Outlook anticipates a reacceleration of the economy next year and a low risk of recession. Three of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Advisory Director - Market Strategy Bill O'Grady, and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and discuss how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.
Late arriving economic reports have delivered mixed results on the health of the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss takeaways for investors.
Social Security has been, over the years, a slowly expanding support prop for the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact of the Social Security cost of living adjustment for 2026.
The policies of the new Japanese prime minister may provide a boost for Japanese stocks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what the election of Sanae Takaichi means for investors.
In this episode, Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller unpack the concept of escalation dominance in the US-China relationship and how societies endure pain. They consider the likelihood and potential depth of recession, examining the trade-offs that arise when the Fed and other policymakers intervene to prevent downturns and identifying areas of malinvestment in today’s markets. Additional topics include the forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality and their outlook for gold.
Submit your question for a future episode to: mailbag@confluenceim.com.
In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.
Consumer debt levels are heading higher. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss if this trend threatens to derail the economy and infect the markets.
China's advantage over the United States in key military and economic areas appears to be widening this year. It's possible to see that in the way trade talks have evolved, and that leaves investors with some important choices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to bring investors up to date.
The surging price of gold and rising stock indices seems to be an unlikely pairing. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this might constitute a pivot point for the markets and for investors.
Why did The US offer a $20 billion bailout to Argentina? Are there clear cut takeaways for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to tackle these questions.
In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, delve into the connection between US dollar weakness and the performance of international and domestic equities. They also share their outlook for recession risks, Fed independence, and Trump's call for publicly traded companies to shift to semiannual rather than quarterly reporting.
Submit your question for a future episode to: mailbag@confluenceim.com.
AI related investments have generated impressive results, but a look at how the big tech firms are channeling their current AI expenditures suggests it might be time for investors to put on the brakes at least a little. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why.
Recent events offer new evidence that US influence around the world is diminishing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss the evidence and how investment strategy might adjust to acknowledge this new geopolitical reality.
With deficits rising, governments may resort to different strategies to help keep interest rates in check. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash examines the landscape for government bonds and the message markets are sending to investors.
The race for global AI dominance has crucial implications for governments and financial markets. Much like Sputnik, this isn't just about a single technological achievement. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how the future of the global order is at stake and offers some guidelines for investors.
Your investment in the S&P 500 might not be as diversified as you think. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss if now might be the time to adjust your strategy.
Are tariffs working the way the Trump planned? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to focus on the purpose of the Trump tariffs and discuss what investors should pay attention to in the weeks and months ahead.
In our August Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, examine the recent underperformance of small caps and emphasize the importance of focusing on quality companies. They review shifts in Confluence’s asset allocation models amid abrupt policy changes and share key lessons learned. Bill and Mark also consider the outlook for stablecoins, the decline in publicly traded companies, and offer a quick insight on tariffs. Finally, they respond to an intriguing question on mine production and opportunities in hard assets.
To submit a question for a future episode, email mailbag@confluenceim.com