In this episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton welcome returning guest Alan Detmeister, Senior Economist and Executive Director at UBS, to discuss how the recent government shutdown disrupted major economic data releases, including the October household survey and CPI report. The conversation explores the growing reliance on imputed data and alternative indicators as inflation readings become noisier in the months ahead. They also examine the evolving impact of tariffs on core inflation, with pass-through effects expected to build into next year. The episode closes with insights on labor-market cooling, immigration dynamics, and the increasing uncertainty surrounding the timing of future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.
In this episode of The Labor Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, former NABE Presidents Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado unpack the latest twists in the U.S. labor market amid a government shutdown. They explore how the “Fork in the Road” program and recent federal job cuts are distorting employment data and weighing on payrolls. The hosts discuss the sharp decline in job postings and the growing importance of private data sources like ADP and Indeed. Rounding out the conversation, Ellen and Julia examine the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy amid data uncertainty and economic headwinds. Tune in for a concise, expert-driven look at the challenges shaping today’s employment landscape.NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.
In this episode, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton break down how the ongoing government shutdown is disrupting inflation data—and why an unprecedented pause in CPI reporting could complicate the economic outlook. They dive into the latest inflation trends, from softer-than-expected September CPI to the uneven effects of tariffs and shifting consumer behavior. With shelter costs cooling and travel prices steadying, the hosts explore what these dynamics mean for PCE inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Tune in for a clear, data-driven look at the forces shaping today’s inflation landscape.
Greg is the current NABE President and Chief Economist at EY-Parthenon . Laura is a Senior Economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives.
Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Inflation Brief drops every Monday following the CPI report.
Hosts Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the latest ADP data showing slowing private sector job growth and discuss what it means for the broader labor market. They explore whether AI, global trade, and immigration are playing a role in weaker hiring, and why government data remains essential for understanding employment trends—especially during a government shutdown. The hosts also preview the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, including expectations for a rate cut, and highlight NABE’s annual meeting in Philadelphia featuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops every Monday following the employment report.
Don’t miss the 67th NABE Annual Meeting, October 12–14 in Philadelphia. Arranged around the theme Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption, the conference will tackle challenges from geopolitical instability and shifting trade policies to climate change and evolving labor markets. Full conference, single-day, and virtual rates are available—the advance deadline is October 8, so act soon to secure your spot.
In this episode of The Inflation Brief, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton unpack the latest CPI report, which shows notable increases in both headline and core CPI. From rising food prices to the impact of tariffs, the conversation explores what’s driving the current inflation landscape—and why it’s more complicated than simple demand-pull or cost-push narratives.
Listen in as we dive into:
Banana inflation 🍌 as a case study in import-driven price hikes
Tariffs and trade policy as emerging inflationary forces
Volatile travel prices, especially airfare spikes ✈️
Persistent pressure from Owner’s Equivalent Rent
Coffee prices up 20% YoY, adding to the heat in the grocery aisle ☕
Why core PCE is expected to rise, and the Fed’s next move—rate cut or hold?
Greg and Laura also weigh in on the possibility of dissent within the FOMC, and why monetary conditions, supply chain shifts, and policy choices are creating some unusual inflation dynamics.
If you're curious about what bananas, coffee, and basis points can tell us about U.S. monetary policy, this is one episode you don’t want to miss.What is NABE? The National Association for Business Economics is the leading association for business economists and professionals who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has brought together top voices from business, academia, and policy—offering world-class conferences, career development, industry insights, and unparalleled networking. Past presidents include former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leadersFirst time listener and want to learn more about NABE? Visit NABE.com, connect with our LinkedIn page, or follow us on X (@nabe_econ).
Hosts Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the latest jobs report, preview the upcoming BLS benchmark revisions, and discuss mounting concerns about the U.S. statistical system. They examine how policy shifts—from tariffs and immigration measures to reductions in the government workforce—are shaping employment trends across key sectors such as construction, private education, and healthcare. The conversation also takes a closer look at rising unemployment rates among some groups and the growing risks to data integrity as budget cuts and staffing pressures challenge agencies like the BLS and the quality of the statistics they produce.
Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops every Monday following the employment report.
On this episode, Laura Rosner-Warburton is joined by special guest Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, for a deep dive into the latest inflation data and what it means for markets and the Fed. They unpack the mixed CPI report, surprising tariff pass-through patterns, the “gut punch” from core services inflation, and the blockbuster PPI print that shook expectations. The conversation also covers the recent firing of the BLS Commissioner, the risks to data integrity, and how ongoing modernization efforts could shape future economic reporting.
Turn on notifications so you don't miss the latest episodes of ECON-versations with NABE!
Join the National Association for Business Economics, the nation’s leading network for business economists and professionals applying economics in the workplace, and gain access to premier conferences, cutting-edge research, and unmatched career development opportunities. Connect with top leaders from the Federal Reserve, industry, and academia across 20+ specialized Roundtables covering today’s most dynamic economic fields.
Hosts, Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado, unpack the latest jobs report, highlighting lower-than-expected job growth and historically large downward revisions that signal a broader economic slowdown. They examine how these developments have shifted market expectations toward a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with further cuts possible by year-end. The discussion also explores sector-specific trends, inflation implications, and how external factors like tariffs may complicate the Fed's next moves.
Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops ever Monday after the employment report.
Not a NABE member? Join now!
In this episode of ECON-versations with NABE, we bring you a special replay of the July 2025 Business Conditions Survey webinar—featuring timely insights into the current business climate and what lies ahead.
How are U.S. businesses navigating rising costs and shifting policy expectations?The July 2025 NABE Business Conditions Survey reveals a measured response from firms, with mounting pressure on hiring and investment plans, and continued increases in materials costs.
Survey Chair Selma Hepp—Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Cotality—leads the discussion, joined by survey analysts Sara Rutledge (Founder and Chief Economist, SRR Consulting) and Lester Jones (VP of Analytics and Chief Economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association). They unpack the data and answer audience questions in this data-rich conversation.
The survey reflects responses from 63 NABE members collected between July 2–11, 2025, covering second-quarter results and near-term business outlooks. The full report is available exclusively to NABE members at NABE.com/Surveys.
This webinar occurred live on July 28, 2025.
In this episode of The Inflation Brief, Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton unpack the latest CPI report, highlighting how rising energy costs and power market dynamics are pushing consumer prices higher. They explore the inflationary impact of tariffs on goods like food and beverages, and introduce a new way to track price pressures in tariff-sensitive sectors. The conversation also covers emerging disinflationary trends in shelter and travel, along with shifting consumer behavior. As inflation forecasts evolve, Greg and Laura discuss what it all means for the Fed’s policy path and the broader economic outlook.
Greg Daco, NABE Vice President; Chief Economist, EY
Laura Rosner-Warbuton, Senior Economist and Founding Partner, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC
This episode was recorded on July 17, 2025.
Not a NABE member? Join today!
NABE is the premier professional association for businesseconomists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and careerdevelopment offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.
ECON-versations with NABE's monthly series The Labor Brief, hosted by Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado, returns with a timely analysis of the latest payroll report, released just before the July 4th holiday. They unpack weaker private employment figures, a slight dip in the unemployment rate, and signs of employer caution despite solid headline numbers. The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve’s next move, with a possible September rate cut on the table, and explores how shifting immigration policies and new fiscal legislation could impact labor supply and growth.
Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops every Monday after the employment report.
Not a NABE member? Join now!
NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.
This is a webinar replay from June 16, 2025.
In this episode of ECON-versations with NABE, we dive into the results of the June 2025 NABE Outlook Survey. Our panel of survey analysts unpacks the top concerns weighing on forecasters, including the economic impact of tariffs, weaker-than-expected labor market gains, and a growing federal deficit. Tune in for insights into what these findings mean for businesses, policymakers, and the broader economic outlook.
Kathy Bostjancic, Survey Chair; Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, Nationwide
Martin Holdrich, Senior Economist, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.
Mervin Jebaraj, Director, Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Arkansas
Brian Lewandowski, Executive Director, University of Colorado at Boulder
🔗 NABE members can read the full results at NABE.com/Surveys. Not a NABE Member? Join to access exclusive content and insights at NABE.com/Join.
In this episode of ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco (Chief Economist at EY and NABE Vice President) and Laura Rosner-Warburton (Senior Economist and Founding Partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives) are joined by special guest Alan Detmeister, Senior Economist and Executive Director at UBS, for a deep dive into the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends and what they reveal about the U.S. economy.
Together, they unpack the recent downside surprises in inflation data, discuss the role of seasonal distortions, and explore whether tariff effects are beginning to take hold—or are still to come. The conversation also spotlights an under-the-radar shift in the BLS's data collection procedures, raising key questions about the reliability of inflation measures moving forward.
With rising geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility, the trio tackles the potential return of stagflationary pressures, what it means for core vs. headline inflation, and how the Federal Reserve might respond in an increasingly complex economic environment.
This episode was recorded on Friday, June 13, 2025.
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🎧📈 Tune in every Monday following the CPI report for a new episode with Greg and Laura!
Welcome back to ECON-versations with NABE! In this episode, former NABE presidents Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the latest trends in the U.S. labor market—exploring the implications of slowing job growth, the ripple effects of employment data revisions, what restaurant hiring reveals about the state of tourism, the role of immigration in shaping the labor force, and more.
Ellen is Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Julia is President and Founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC.
Tune in every Monday after the BLS Employment Situation release!
Registration is open for the NABE Foundation Economic Measurement Seminar! Join us for the data event of the year! With 20+ sessions, 50+ expert speakers, and 100+data series discussed, EMS is your go-to event for cutting-edge insights into data and measurement techniques that shape informed decision-making.
Returning attendee? Track B brings fresh, in-depth discussions on topics like measuring the impact of natural disasters, analyzing trade through input-output tables, and identifying key turning points in the business cycle.
Don’t miss out—visit NABE.com/EMS2025 for more details and to register today!
📊 In a world awash with numbers, understanding how economic data are built—and what they really mean—is more important than ever.
This one-hour webinar previews the 2025 Economic Measurement Seminar, the go-to event for professionals who depend on high-quality, real-time economic data. You'll get a sneak peek into key topics covered at the full seminar, including:
Whether you're shaping business strategy, doing economic modeling, or influencing policy, this preview gives you practical insights—and shows why the full EMS experience keeps attendees coming back.
Perfect for past participants and first-timers alike. Tune in and see why economic data matter more than ever.
This is a replay from a webinar held on May 19, 2025. NABE Survey Analysts dive into the results and take audience questions. The full report can be access by NABE members at NABE.com/Surveys.
Bryan Bezold, Senior Economist, Ford Motor Company
Lester Jones, CBE, Vice President of Analytics and Chief Economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association
Sara Rutledge, Founder and Chief Economist, SRR Consulting
The May 2025 NABE Business Conditions Survey report presents the responses of 63 NABE members to a survey conducted April 21-30, 2025, on business conditions in their firms or industries, and reflects first-quarter 2025 results and the near-term outlook.
Welcome back to our monthly series on inflation and the Fed! This month, hosts Gregory Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by guest Omair Sharif to break down the latest CPI and PPI reports. They explore how tariffs are affecting inflation metrics and price indices, discuss shifts in their economic forecasts, and consider what direction Fed policy might take in the coming months.
Greg is the Vice President of NABE and Chief Economist at EY. Laura is Senior Economist and Founding Partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. Omair is Founder and President of Inflation Insights LLC.
Be sure to tune in every Monday after the CPI release for a new episode!
Welcome back to ECON-versations with NABE! In this edition of our monthly labor market series, former NABE Presidents Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the April employment report and explore how it aligns—or diverges—from real-time data from Indeed. Joining the conversation is Cory Stahle from the Indeed Hiring Lab, who offers insight into current wage and hiring trends and what it all could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Ellen is Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Julia is the President and Founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. Cory is an Economist at Indeed's Hiring Lab.
Be sure to tune in after every employment report for our labor series as we dive into the latest data and events impacting the economy.
The initial April 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 41 professional forecasters. The initial survey, covering the outlook for 2025 and 2026, was conducted March 18-25, 2025. In order to capture rapidly changing economic conditions, a flash survey was conducted April 7-9, 2025, and presents the consensus 2025-2026 macroeconomic forecast of 32 professional forecasters out of the 41 initially surveyed. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965,and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,800 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Kathy Bostjancic (chair), Nationwide; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Mervin Jebaraj, University of Arkansas; Tendayi Kapfidze, Wells Fargo; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin Patrick, National Association for Business Economics; Rebecca Rockey, Cushman & Wakefield; and Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “NABE panelists lowered their forecasts for economic growth for 2025 and 2026 following the April 2nd tariff announcement,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “The Flash Survey calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 1.3% this year, down from 1.9% in the initial April survey. Similarly, the outlook for 2026 economic growth is 1.4%, down from 1.9%.
“In addition, half of the participants place the probability of recession in 2025 between 25% and 49%, while 37% place the odds at 50% or higher. This compares with 8% who placed the odds of recession in 2025 at 50% or higher just prior to the April 2nd tariff announcement.”
“Inflation forecasts for this year were lifted higher, while projections for next year were little changed in the Flash Survey,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “Survey respondents now forecast the consumer price index will accelerate to a 3.4% annual rate by the end of 2025, up from the estimated 3.0% annual pace in the initial April survey.
“Similarly, the estimate for the personal consumption expenditure price index was boosted to an annual 3.5% by year-end, up from 2.7% in the initial survey. Panelists did not alter the forecast path for the Federal funds rate in 2025, continuing to call for a 25-basis-point rate cut in Q3 2025 and another 25-bps rate reduction in Q4 2025.”
To download the full report, please visit NABE.com/Surveys.
Welcome back to our monthly series on inflation and the Fed! Our hosts, Gregory Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton, break down the March CPI report and the latest on tariffs with Yale Budget Lab's Ernie Tedeschi.
Greg is the Vice President of NABE and Chief Economist at EY. Laura is Senior Economist and Founding Partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. Ernie is the Director of Economics at The Budget Lab at Yale University.
Be sure to tune in every Monday after the CPI release for a new episode!