The European labor market is on the cusp of its own flat Beveridge moment. That danger was amplified by the third quarter contraction in the Swiss economy, which, as we know, is a key leading global indicator. And if all that wasn’t enough, a group of German Economists, of all people, just tore into the mainstream European narrative of Europe being in a good place. They even went so far as correctly, of course, crap all over the Berlin bazooka.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America’s shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income:
https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home
-------------------------------------------------------------------
euronews Weak eurozone growth meets flat jobs market as bankruptcies surge
https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/11/14/weak-eurozone-growth-meets-flat-jobs-market-as-bankruptcies-surge
Bloomberg Merz Advisers Revise 2026 German Growth Forecast to Below 1%
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/merz-advisers-revise-2026-german-growth-forecast-to-below-1
DW Germany news: Economic experts call for change of course
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-economic-experts-call-for-change-of-course/live-74708934
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
An unprecedented slump in Chinese investment. That’s what one media outlet called it. I don’t think slump is the right word. Crash might be a more appropriate one. While that tends to be overused, the numbers show not in this case. Especially when they are backed up by a crash in household lending in China, too, as Chinese banks just put up more grim stats. And all of this confirmation of what I told you months ago, the something big has changed over there this summer.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bloomberg China’s Investment Crash Puzzles Economists and Threatens Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/china-s-investment-crash-puzzles-economists-and-threatens-growth
Bloomberg PBOC Justifies Loan Slowdown Following Record Contraction
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/pboc-justifies-loan-slowdown-following-record-contraction
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Big moves across the risk markets this week. Bitcoin and crypto hammered. Repo back on the menu. WTI full contango (briefly). Plus, top officials at the New York Fed soft confirming the start of the next not-QE QE. What does it all mean?
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we’ll fill in everything that you’ve been missing.
https://eurodollar.university/memberships
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Flat Beveridge strikes again. You know the drill. We’ve been stuck in forgot how to grow and its no-hire/no-fire labor market the past few years. That began to change last year, especially last summer when no-hiring somehow got to be even less hiring. Then last year and this year, no-firing became some firing, in other words, shifting to the flat part of the Beveridge curve. But what we’ve been getting more recently looks to be an escalation in firing. Verizon just announced it may be cutting 15% of its 100,000 strong workforce.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2025/2510#tab-report
Bloomberg Verizon Eyes Up to 15,000 Layoffs as New CEO Takes Charge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/verizon-layoffs-could-come-next-week-as-new-ceo-takes-charge
CNBC White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released because of the shutdown
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/white-house-october-data-release.html
Bloomberg Fed’s Perli Says Won’t Be Long Before Fed Starts Buying Assets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/fed-s-perli-says-won-t-be-long-before-fed-starts-buying-assets
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The collapse and bankruptcy of another private credit supported firm has generated significant losses this week. But as I pointed out last week with the shuttered UBS sponsored hedge funds, it isn’t necessarily the amount of money being burned. It’s what each of these cockroaches reveals, and how they add to the growing mistrust about the entire private credit shadow banking network. That’s the real danger which could threaten to unravel a whole lot more than a few troubled firms.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America’s shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income
https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Bloomberg BlackRock Faces 100% Loss on Private Loan, Adding to Credit Market Pain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks
Bloomberg Why First Brands Has Sparked So Many Concerns on Wall Street
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/why-first-brands-collapse-sparked-concerns-on-wall-street
Bloomberg Car Loan Delinquencies Hit Record for Riskiest Borrowers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/car-loan-delinquencies-hit-record-for-riskiest-borrowers
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Fast food chain Wendy's said it’s closing hundreds more US locations than previously announced because customers can’t afford to eat there. It fits with what McDonalds US President said last week about how the entire industry is fighting for contracting traffic. It sounds practically Chinese talking about oversupply of cheap hamburgers and chicken nuggets. But as we know only too well from China’s economy, it isn’t too much production it is the lack of demand.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America’s shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income
https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home
-------------------------------------------------------------------
USA Today Wendy's to close roughly 300 stores nationwide starting in late 2025
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/11/07/wendys-closing-hundreds-stores-2025/87146469007/
CNBC McDonald’s U.S. boss puts focus on ‘value and affordability’ as consumer spending splits
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/mcdonalds-us-boss-memo-value-affordability.html
Bloomberg US Small-Business Optimism Dips to Six-Month Low on Earnings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/us-small-business-optimism-slips-to-six-month-low-on-earnings
Bloomberg US Companies Shed Jobs in Late October, Weekly ADP Data Show
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/us-firms-shed-11-250-jobs-per-week-in-four-weeks-to-oct-25-adp
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The federal government may be opening back up but the administration floating a tariff dividend is the real news here. It’s yet another dose of reality showing the stock market is not that reality. Americans are struggling and the timing behind this dividend is transparently in response to worsening economic conditions. After all, more Americans say they think unemployment is coming than at any time since 1980.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Ready to make your week count? Subscribe to One Big Weekly Theme today. You can sample the service or sign up and get started straight away.
Visit https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com
President Trump Truth Social
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115514453574326959
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115520395997089111
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115519726463094783
NBC Trump floats giving Americans cash for health care and tariff dividends
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-floats-giving-americans-cash-health-care-tariff-dividends-rcna242835
Bloomberg Bessent Says Trump’s $2,000 ‘Dividend’ May Come Via Tax Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-09/bessent-says-trump-s-2-000-dividend-may-come-via-tax-cuts
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
CarMax sacked their CEO after preannouncing just brutal results for an industry already reeling and at the epicenter of the current ongoing breakdown in credit markets. The stock plunged 25% Thursday when management disclosed unit sales are looking to crash by 8 to 12% in the latest quarter. Relatedly, consumer confidence plunged to record and near-record lows...and it has little to do with the govt shutdown.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
UBS is reportedly closing down not one but two hedge funds, in a more that raises a lot of questions but also some very uncomfortable parallels to 2007. One of those funds is exposed to First Brands, so understandable. The other...isn't. And that raises the prospect of the R-word; in this case, that does not stand for recession, rather its uglier monetary twin.
Bloomberg UBS Winds Down O’Connor Funds in Sign of First Brands Strain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/ubs-to-wind-down-o-connor-funds-with-first-brands-exposure
NYT $3.2 Billion Move by Bear Stearns to Rescue Fund
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/23/business/23bond.html
https://eurodollar.university
The most October job cuts in over twenty years. More than October 2008, if you’re keeping score. While that doesn’t mean this is a repeat of 2008, can we all finally admit this is a really serious situation? And as the flat Beveridge curve emerges more clearly, the rising unemployment it represents is also causing collateral damage, pun intended. The New York Fed said yesterday auto, credit card and student loan delinquencies hit levels, well you’ll have to see.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nov 06 October Challenger Report: 153,074 Job Cuts on Cost-Cutting & AI
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/october-challenger-report-153074-job-cuts-on-cost-cutting-ai/
Revelio Labs Employment — October 2025
https://www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor-statistics/employment/
Revelio Labs RPLS Reports 60k Jobs Added in September Amid BLS Shutdown
https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/macro/rpls-september-release/
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The dollar is accelerating and not in the direction most people were anticipating, to the point it has rattled the entire cryptocurrency space. That’s why cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin just got hit with a major selloff this week as the dollar debasement theme which had driven their latest surge comes up completely empty. More important than that, however, the dollar is accelerating higher which signals quite a lot all its own. But what? You can see how this gets confusing with all this unnatural noise.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise.
With our memberships, we’ll fill in everything that you’ve been missing.
https://eurodollar.university/memberships
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Not only is retail giant Target not committing to the big seasonal hiring it always does, the company is actually laying off nearly 2000 of its corporate staff in its biggest management and job shakeup in years. Target is merely the latest “one-off” big name to announce job cuts. No wonder consumer confidence just took another huge hit and that was from the one survey that has held up the best this year.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise.
With our memberships, we’ll fill in everything that you’ve been missing.
https://eurodollar.university/memberships
Bloomberg A Wave of US Layoffs Flash Early Warning Sign for Job Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/the-low-hire-low-fire-us-economy-seems-to-be-over
Bloomberg Target to Eliminate 1,800 Roles, 8% of Headquarters Team
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/target-to-lay-off-8-of-headquarters-team-cut-1-800-roles
NYT UPS Has Cut 48,000 Workers Since Last Year
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/business/ups-layoffs-48000-workers-this-year.html
Bloomberg A Slump in Cardboard Box Sales Is Stoking Fears of Lackluster Holiday Shopping
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/cardboard-box-sales-slump-signals-weak-holiday-shopping-ahead
RCM/TIPP Optimism Index Drops Sharply https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/04/rcmtipp_optimism_index_drops_sharply_1145051.html
https://eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The cash squeeze in wholesale money markets that we’ve been following got a whole more exciting on Friday, and now we have the full set of numbers on it. Interest rates soared the most since 2020 further proving the Federal Reserve’s program which is supposed to keep this from happening doesn’t keep it from happening. Imagine my shock. We also know that there were plenty of spare reserves available, too. And with more borrowing from the Fed again this morning so far, we have to consider the question whether this ongoing and escalating tightness is pointing to something bigger.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The ECB this week held its policy rate right at 2% with policymakers out in force claiming to everyone who might listen they’re likely done at that level. Instead, GDP data from all over the continent just came out and showed there’s more pringles yet to come from Europe. But there’s also one big factor here few people are considering and it has to do with the 2% level itself.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you.
eurodollaruniversity.substack.com
https://eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
New home sales in China collapsed by 42% in October when compared to last October, representing more than just another setback for the beleaguered Chinese real estate market, the world’s largest asset class. This is a major problem for Chinese banks, not that they were expecting different. So, we see interest rates are back to moving lower, setting multi-month lows with the latest short-lived stretch of optimism based on Chinese tech stocks being burst yet again by the reality stocks are not real life.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we’ll fill in everything that you’ve been missing.
https://eurodollar.university/memberships
Bloomberg PBOC Adviser Leads Call for Fiscal Support to Housing Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/pboc-adviser-leads-call-for-fiscal-aid-to-support-housing-market
https://eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The reason why Fed Chair Jay Powell didn’t want to commit to a December rate cut is simple. A number of voting members at the FOMC are not convinced the weak labor market is actually all that weak. Sure, the numbers don’t look good, but they’re wonder if it is real. Well, Chipotle and Kraft-Heinz would like to answer them with a pair of serious warnings about what they’re seeing from consumers.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bloomberg Fed Cuts Rate by Quarter Point, With Dissents on Both Sides
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-10-29/fomc-rate-decision-and-fed-chair-news-conference
Bloomberg Chipotle Falls Most Since 2012 After Warning Over Diner Pullback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/chipotle-cuts-outlook-for-third-time-in-2025-on-weaker-traffic
WSJ Kraft Heinz Lowers Full-Year Outlook on Weak Consumption Trends
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/kraft-heinz-khc-q3-earnings-report-stock-2025-a4c6430e
YahooFinance Kraft Heinz bearish on outlook amid volume decreases ahead of split
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-heinz-bearish-outlook-amid-173322392.html
Conference Board
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
https://eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
FOMC will cut rates today but what will officials say, or do, about the growing repo mess? Find out as we react to the Fed's decisions and Powell's press statements.
Eurodollar University’s Money and Macro Analysis
Amazon announced today it will be cutting 14,000 corporate jobs, though leaker reports say the real number will be roughly 30,000 over time. The company itself says it needs to be more nimble to leverage AI technology when the timing and the target instead shows macroeconomic headwinds are behind the move. There is a reason why consumers believe the US economy is in recession right now. While layoffs like Amazon’s remain relatively scarce, unemployment is piling up all over the place and so does the confirmation.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise.
With our memberships, we’ll fill in everything that you’ve been missing.
https://eurodollar.university/memberships
https://eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Another day, another significant borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s repo facility. This has become a regular occurrence and concurrent with a rise in money market rates due to the cash squeeze I told you about yesterday, there’s a lot of similarities to 2019 and it’s got the Fed on track to not just cut rates this week also possibly terminate the balance sheet runoff – even if Steve doesn’t quite agree.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU