Follow Click Beta:
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs
Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457
YouTube:
Subscribe on Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009
Subscribe on YouTube
In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost.
Topics covered:
• The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data
• Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest
• How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending
• The Fed’s policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding
• The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession”
• AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up
• The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx
• Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI
• The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building
• Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products
• New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology
• Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures
• Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha
• How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternatives
Timestamps:
00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market
02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy
04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown
06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts
10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics
12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles
15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power
18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges
21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening
25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics
28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania
31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment
37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications
40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks
45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors
47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works
52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF
55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning
57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup
59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns
Subscribe on Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts
Subscribe on YouTube
https://youtube.com/@excessreturns
In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Bogumil Baranowski, and Matt Zeigler dive deep into what truly makes a great business and how long-term investors can develop the conviction to hold through volatility, dead-money periods, and inevitable mistakes. They break down the characteristics of the perfect business, the behavioral challenges of long-term investing, the pain of errors of omission, how to evaluate management, and why returns on capital and cash generation matter so much over decades.
Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under certain conditions. We explore the data behind his findings, how to think about inflation, valuations, longevity, and sequence of returns risk, and the philosophy of living well in retirement.
Topics covered:
The origins and evolution of the 4% rule
How Bill discovered the worst-case retirement scenario (1968)
The role of inflation and market valuations in withdrawal rates
Why he now recommends 65% equities instead of 55%
How diversification increases sustainable withdrawals
The logic behind a U-shaped equity glide path
Sequence of returns risk and how to mitigate it
Thoughts on the permanent portfolio and gold
Bucket strategies and cash reserves
Dynamic vs. fixed withdrawal methods
How longevity and FIRE affect planning horizons
Why retirees should spend and enjoy more
The philosophy behind “A Richer Retirement”
Timestamps:
00:00 The origins of the 4% rule
03:00 The 1968 retirement “buzz saw” scenario
07:00 Common misconceptions about the 4% rule
10:00 Inflation and valuation adjustments
13:00 Diversification and higher withdrawal rates
15:00 Longevity, FIRE, and extended retirements
16:00 The U-shaped equity glide path
18:00 Rebalancing and allocation timing
19:00 The permanent portfolio and gold
20:00 Sequence of returns risk explained
22:00 Cash reserves and bucket strategies
23:00 Dynamic withdrawal approaches
24:00 Why the rule is now closer to 4.7%
27:00 The changing market environment
29:00 Key charts and frameworks from the book
31:00 The eight essential elements of planning
33:00 Withdrawal strategies and asset allocation
34:00 Required minimum distributions
36:00 Reflections on creating the 4% rule
38:00 Bill’s philosophy on life and retirement
40:00 Closing thoughts and where to find his book
In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions.
Main topics covered:
Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and life
How to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock prices
Why multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcuts
Understanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is good
Lessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision making
How humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgment
Reflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative process
Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a long cycle shift away from U.S. dominance.
Topics covered:
China’s accelerating industrial and market recovery
Why he sees the start of an 8–10 year bull market in China
The “CapEx time bomb” under the Mag 7
U.S. vs. international equity performance and valuations
The rise of fallen angels and how private credit changed high yield
Why he may soon flip from short to long credit
The end of the stock-bond correlation era
His “Bushy” portfolio and defensive positioning
Trend following, precious metals, and EM local debt
Emerging opportunities in Africa and Uzbekistan
The global energy complex and long-dated crude exposure
Short ideas in fast casual restaurants and the “forgotten 493”
How investor sentiment extremes create opportunity
Timestamps:
00:00 China’s transformation and why Rupert’s bullish
05:00 The Made in China 2025 plan and global dominance
07:00 U.S. vs. international equity rotation
10:00 The Mag 7’s CapEx problem
14:00 The “forgotten 493” and passive flow dynamics
18:00 Bonds, credit spreads, and what the yield curve says
21:00 Private credit, fallen angels, and the next credit setup
25:00 The end of risk parity and correlation breakdown
27:00 Inside the Bushy portfolio and alternatives
30:00 Gold, miners, and precious metals strategy
33:00 Frontier and EM opportunities – Africa and Uzbekistan
39:00 The Acorns portfolio and global positioning
44:00 Energy stocks, refiners, and long-dated crude
49:00 The restaurant short thesis and U.S. consumer trends
53:00 Where to follow Rupert and Blind Squirrel Macro
In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding beneath the market's current narrow leadership. Richard breaks down his profit cycle framework, shares why investors are confusing economic stories for investment stories, and explains why non-US quality stocks and dividend strategies may be primed for a comeback.Topics covered
• Speculation across asset classes and why it matters
• Why fundamentals still offer big opportunities
• The profit cycle vs the economic cycle
• Divergence between the market leaders and the broader market
• Inflation, pricing power, and corporate margins
• Parallels between the AI boom and the dot-com bubble
• Misallocation of capital and risks to the market
• The case for non-US quality stocks
• Where value investing could shine again
• Dividend compounding and long-term wealth building
• How RBA approaches macro-driven ETF investing
• What investors are getting wrong about diversification
• Deglobalization, reindustrialization, and long-term themes
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and speculative environment
01:46 Best opportunities for patient investors
03:52 Profit cycle framework explained
06:00 Where we are in the profit cycle
07:32 What investors are missing on inflation
09:12 Lessons from the dot-com era and AI comparisons
13:46 What could trigger the speculative unwind
17:18 Valuations, CAPE, and return expectations
20:23 AI’s impact on margins and productivity
22:39 Can value outperform again
25:41 International opportunities and quality stocks
34:31 Market breadth and narrow leadership
36:00 The Fed, inflation targeting, and policy risks
40:11 RBA’s investment process and ETF selection
47:13 Diversification vs speculation behavior
49:26 Misallocation of capital and market risks
52:00 Deglobalization and manufacturing opportunities
54:13 Closing question: Stock market vs horse race
57:40 The business Richard would start today
58:29 Where to follow Richard Bernstein
In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating past returns into the future.
Topics covered:
• Victor’s journey from LTCM to simple, systematic investing
• Why position sizing is as important as what you own
• How to think about expected returns and valuation frameworks like CAPE and P-CAPE
• The role of risk, risk premia, and personal utility in portfolio decisions
• Why 60/40 and the permanent portfolio ignore expected returns
• Buybacks, market elasticity, and capital flows
• Indexing misconceptions and asset allocation discipline
• The ETF structure and tax efficiency in asset allocation strategies
• Concentration in large tech stocks and long-term equity returns
• The importance of dynamic asset allocation vs static allocation
• Key lessons for individual investors and avoiding “too good to be true” opportunities
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and Victor’s investing journey
03:00 Lessons from LTCM and shift to simplicity
09:00 Position sizing vs asset selection
13:00 Risk as a cost and thinking in expected returns
18:00 CAPE and the P-CAPE framework
26:00 How to use expected return estimates
34:00 The impact of buybacks on equity markets
39:00 Indexing vs poor asset allocation habits
43:00 Portfolio construction and global diversification
46:00 Why the permanent portfolio falls short
47:00 Managed futures and factors beyond stocks and bonds
50:00 Inside Elm’s dynamic allocation ETF
55:00 Market concentration and equity issuance risks
01:01:00 The case for dynamic allocation
01:02:50 Victor’s one investing lesson
Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999
Subscribe on Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc
Subscribe on YouTube
In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes.
Main topics covered
Why we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher first
Fundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returns
Options as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equities
Reflexivity and how option flows influence asset prices
Retail adoption of options and misperceptions in the space
AI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loops
Historical valuation regimes and recency bias in markets
Portfolio construction beyond the 60/40 model
Tail hedging and the role of long volatility
Importance of true diversification and managing interest-rate risk
Timestamps
00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger
03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers
08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets
14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms
19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products
24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999
31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals
38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead
52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism
54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies
1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out.
Topics covered:
Why big tech’s CapEx spending has exploded and how much they’re investing
The trillions in revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure spending
Historical parallels with the railroad and dot-com buildouts
Why companies that invest heavily often underperform
How the Mag 7 are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses
The risks of “circular deals” and financial entanglement in AI
Why the AI race resembles a prisoner’s dilemma
Which layers of the AI stack may capture long-term value
How early adopters and infrastructure players differ in capital intensity and returns
Where investors might find opportunity beyond the obvious AI names
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and overview of AI CapEx boom
03:00 Why Kai researched AI investment cycles
05:00 Scale of big tech’s CapEx spending
07:00 Revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure
08:30 Market concentration and valuation risks
11:30 Historical parallels: railroads, internet, and AI
14:30 The capital cycle and overinvestment dynamics
17:30 “This time is different?” and lessons from bubbles
18:00 Factor investing and high-asset-growth underperformance
21:00 Sector and firm-level CapEx trends
22:30 Winner-take-all dynamics and competitive pressure
26:00 How the Mag 7’s business model is changing
30:00 Comparing tech CapEx to utilities
34:00 The circular deal problem and financial risk
37:30 The AI arms race as a prisoner’s dilemma
40:30 Will AI be winner-take-all?
43:30 Lessons from the railroad and dot-com eras
47:00 Where the value is captured in infrastructure vs adoption
48:00 Identifying early AI adopters and hidden beneficiaries
50:30 Sector and geographic AI exposure
54:00 Capital intensity and valuation differences between infrastructure and adopters
In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We also discuss the bond market, inflation dynamics, and how investors can better understand and manage risks that are often hidden inside traditional portfolios.
Main topics covered
• How Nancy’s experience trading volatility at Goldman Sachs shaped her investment philosophy
• Why most investors are short volatility without realizing it
• Understanding convexity and prepayment risk in bond portfolios
• The rise of passive investing and its impact on interest rate volatility
• How IVOL provides exposure to interest rate volatility and inflation protection
• The problem with relying on CPI as a measure of inflation
• Why gold is an inconsistent inflation hedge
• The yield curve as an alternative indicator of inflation expectations
• Why interest rate volatility is historically cheap today
• The relationship between bond volatility and stock volatility
• How to think about IVOL and BNDD in a diversified portfolio
• The long-term risks of shorting volatility and selling options for “income”
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and overview of option selling in markets
02:15 Nancy’s background at Goldman Sachs and lessons on volatility
05:00 Understanding convexity and its importance in fixed income
06:30 Why investors are short interest rate volatility without knowing it
10:25 The hidden risks inside the bond market and the role of mortgages
11:00 Why most investors are short inflation in real life
13:00 Conventional vs. alternative inflation hedges
17:00 Why CPI is an imperfect inflation measure
18:00 How the yield curve reflects inflation expectations
21:00 Historical yield curve data and current inversion
25:00 Interest rate volatility after Silicon Valley Bank
26:30 Relationship between bond and stock volatility
28:00 Using IVOL in a portfolio
31:00 Discussion on the national debt and interest rate risk
32:00 BNDD ETF and how it complements IVOL
33:30 Why inflation-protected bonds are underused in the US
36:00 Closing questions – what Nancy believes most peers disagree with
37:00 Why selling options is not income and the risks investors overlook
In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term discipline.
Topics covered:
The four historical periods of 15%+ annualized stock market returns and what followed
Why current U.S. valuations don’t necessarily mean an immediate crash
How global value stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500
The role of international diversification and real assets in portfolios
Trend following and managed futures as the “premier diversifiers”
The benefits of blending trend and valuation-based strategies
The permanent portfolio and how managed futures enhance it
Concentration risk in U.S. equities and what history teaches about market leadership
The parallels (and limits) between today’s market and the dot-com bubble
AI’s potential role in investing and portfolio management
The behavioral traps around performance chasing and when to sell
Lessons from launching and running ETFs and the 351 exchange structure for tax efficiency
The future of markets, retail investors, and Meb’s upcoming book “Time Billionaires”
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and market performance context
04:00 Are U.S. valuations permanently higher?
09:00 The spectrum of future returns and investor playbook
12:00 International and value investing opportunities
15:00 Trend following and managed futures
19:00 The permanent portfolio and diversification
25:00 Concentration risk and market structure
28:00 AI’s impact on investing
32:00 Comparing today’s market to the dot-com bubble
37:00 The long-term case for value investing
41:00 When to sell and investor behavior
45:00 Lessons from running ETFs and industry evolution
51:00 Understanding 351 exchanges and tax-efficient investing
57:00 What’s changed most for investors over 20 years
59:00 Meb’s new book “Time Billionaires” and closing thoughts
Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor.
Topics covered:
Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” framework
Why the U.S. consumer remains resilient
Inflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfolios
The Fed’s next moves and what investors should watch
Global diversification and the case for international stocks
How to think about inflation protection and real assets
The diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretenders
Market concentration, valuations, and managing risk
Life lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-making
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
03:00 Controlling the controllables
06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy
10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank
15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel
18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard
22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges
30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy
34:00 Global competition and diversification
38:00 Inflation protection and real assets
41:30 The reality of AI and productivity
47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 7
52:00 Valuations and long-term returns
55:45 Lessons for investors
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in retirement.
Topics covered:
Why macro forecasting rarely works as a long-term investment strategy
The four stages of the index investor’s education: darkness, enlightenment, complexity, and simplicity
How financial advisors and Wall Street profit from unnecessary complexity
The case for international diversification and how to size it correctly
The pros and cons of factor investing and why behavioral discipline matters more than factors themselves
Why passive investing isn’t “too big” and why indexing works over time
How to think about valuations and investor psychology
Tips, gold, and how to think about inflation protection
Rethinking the 4% withdrawal rule and why goals for heirs matter more than formulas
The one piece of advice Rick would give to young investors today
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the four stages of an index investor
03:00 Why macro forecasting fails as an investment tool
07:00 The evolution from complexity to simplicity
13:00 Complexity as job security for advisors
18:00 Should investors own international stocks?
23:00 The behavioral challenge of factor investing
32:00 Is passive investing too big?
34:00 What to do (and not do) with market valuations
37:00 Managing investor behavior through small adjustments
39:00 Inflation, TIPS, and the role of gold
46:00 Why indexing works and what makes it unbeatable
49:00 The 4% rule and smarter withdrawal strategies
57:00 Advice for young investors and what Rick wants his legacy to be
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets.
Topics covered:
How liquidity replaced fundamentals as the market’s main driver
Why investors must adapt to desynchronized global cycles
The impact of debt, fiscal dominance, and government policy on markets
Housing as the next driver of the business cycle
How AI, robotics, and quantum computing are shaping the next growth wave
The maturation of crypto and what comes after the “altcoin season”
Why narratives now drive price and how to read them effectively
The risks and opportunities in trading liquidity and fiscal policy
The cognitive and behavioral shifts driving modern investing
Protecting human capital in the age of AI and automation
Timestamps:
00:00 Liquidity and the end of fundamentals
06:17 Three continents, three policies, one fractured world
12:20 Housing as the next driver of the cycle
16:39 Crypto’s evolution and fiscal dominance
23:26 Portfolio positioning in a policy-driven market
29:44 AI, human capital, and the risk to autonomy
36:00 How narratives shape markets and investment themes
52:00 Building a macro narrative and market framework
58:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts
In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with today’s most important macro themes.
Main topics covered:
Why forecasts don’t work and what investors should do instead
The real economic risks of tariffs and immigration restrictions
How AI may (or may not) impact productivity and market winners
How to build anti-fragile portfolios around macro risks
When and how to “sin a little” on bond duration and valuation
Lessons from past tech booms and investor overconfidence
The 4% of stocks that drive all long-term equity returns
The risks of concentration in the S&P 500
Hidden costs of passive investing and large index funds
When index and factor funds get too big to trade efficiently
Value investing, interest rates, and inflation relationships
The evidence on simple value strategies like Piotroski and Magic Formula
How to think about growth exposure using quality and low volatility
The opportunities and dangers of private credit and interval funds
Why illiquidity premiums exist and how to capture them prudently
Behavioral discipline, diversification, and long-term compounding lessons
Timestamps:
00:00 Forecasting failures and market humility
03:30 Why Larry doesn’t make macro predictions
07:00 The real impact of tariffs and immigration on inflation and growth
11:00 AI, productivity, and the question of who the real winners will be
14:40 How to manage duration risk and “sin a little”
18:00 Investor overconfidence and lessons from past tech booms
21:00 Why only 4% of stocks explain all equity returns
24:00 Market concentration and S&P 500 risk
28:30 Why diversification still matters
30:00 The hidden trading costs of index and factor funds
38:00 How big fund size changes execution and exposure
41:00 Is passive investing too big?
42:30 Value vs growth and interest rate relationships
45:00 Evidence on simple value strategies and Buffett’s alpha
51:00 Factor diversification and one-over-N strategy
54:00 Private credit: opportunity and risks
58:00 Illiquidity premiums and fund structure concerns
01:00:00 Behavioral discipline, patience, and staying diversified
Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.
Main topics covered:
Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of markets
The case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030
Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longer
The key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemployment
Comparing today’s market to the dot-com era
Why traditional recession indicators have failed
How COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronization
Inflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watching
Why valuation is a broken signal for stock picking
The quant factors that matter most today
ETF factor exposures and hidden risks
How to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private markets
Why U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity market
Key lessons and philosophies for long-term investors
Timestamps:
00:00 What really drives equity investing
03:00 Adam Parker’s background and multi-lens approach
05:00 Why he’s long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,000
08:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity
09:00 The three major bear cases
14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble
18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient
20:00 COVID’s impact on business cycles
23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins
24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook
29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard
32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics
37:00 Why valuation doesn’t work
41:00 Key quant factors to watch
43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures
46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation
51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage
55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts
Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today’s “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather’s Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narrative collapse can turn small defaults into systemic crises. He and Matt Zeigler explore what’s really happening beneath the surface of private markets, how common knowledge shifts shape investor behavior, and how Perscient Pro’s “storyboards” and “semantic signatures” help track the narratives driving markets in real time.
Main topics covered
Why Ben believes we’re at a “trust-breaking” moment similar to 2007
The Godfather analogy and what frauds reveal about human behavior
How private credit has evolved into today’s “shadow banking” system
Flow machines, hidden leverage, and why opacity is intentional
The dangers of informational asymmetry between investors and lenders
How broken trust creates chain reactions in financial systems
The link between narrative collapse and liquidity crises
Common knowledge, crowd reactions, and market psychology
Doom loops between Wall Street and the real economy
How Perscient Pro tracks financial narratives using semantic signatures
Why gold’s current rally is about safety, not debasement
What investors should monitor next in credit, housing, and macro narratives
Timestamps
0:00 Hidden leverage and the trust problem
1:04 Introduction to Ben Hunt and Epsilon Theory
2:12 The Tessio analogy – betrayal and the structure of fraud
6:10 How private credit became today’s shadow banking system
10:55 Flow machines and why opacity is intentional
14:48 Trust breaks and the “funding stops first” dynamic
18:35 The Biden “common knowledge” moment explained
21:00 What happens when narratives collapse
24:26 Apollo, asymmetric information, and shorting First Brands
28:00 Hidden leverage and the domino effects of default
33:40 The “doom loop” between Wall Street and the real economy
39:10 Why Silicon Valley Bank was different
44:18 What a “run on Wall Street” could look like
48:00 Perscient Pro and tracking financial storyboards
53:32 Semantic signatures and narrative detection
57:10 Housing, inflation, and gold storyboards
1:00:48 Where to follow Ben Hunt and learn more about Perscient Pro