This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on history, macroeconomics, and decades of market experience, the discussion explores what this transition means for investors trying to navigate a world defined by uncertainty, volatility, and structural change.
Main topics covered
• What the hundred year pivot means and why it represents a once in a generation shift
• The Fourth Turning framework and how it connects financial crises, politics, and social change
• Why buy the dip worked for decades and why it may fail in the years ahead
• The erosion of trust in institutions and its impact on markets and money
• The financial crisis, sanctions, and the freezing of sovereign assets as turning points
• The role of the dollar, gold, and central banks in a changing monetary system
• Lessons from history including Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis
• Why commodities and real assets matter in a world of deglobalization and reshoring
• How artificial intelligence fits into the current investment cycle and capital allocation boom
• Portfolio construction and behavioral challenges in a higher volatility environment
Timestamps
00:00 The hundred year pivot and why this cycle is different
01:30 Defining the Fourth Turning and historical cycles
07:40 The financial crisis as the start of institutional breakdown
11:00 Sanctions, sovereign assets, and the end of unquestioned trust in the dollar
18:20 Historical parallels from Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis
24:50 What could trigger a broader monetary reset
28:50 Energy, geopolitics, and shifting global alliances
35:00 Commodities, real assets, and rebuilding supply chains
42:40 Artificial intelligence, capital cycles, and uncertainty
52:30 Portfolio construction, behavior, and risk tolerance
59:50 Where to follow Grant Williams and his work