The global chemicals industry is in turmoil—a potential structural reset from China’s capacity build-out, utilization dropping from low-mid 80s to high 70s, and Europe’s energy shock. This has made chemicals one of the weakest European high yield sectors, with spreads blowing out ~600bps over, negative returns, and distress clustering in commodity-heavy, leveraged names.Tim Riminton, Senior Credit Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence (7+ years on basic materials), explains why this isn’t just Europe: overcapacity ripples globally via collapsing EBITDA (one issuer fell 60% Q/Q), plant closures (up to 20% Europe cracking capacity), weaker coverage, covenant stress, and refinancing risks pushing issuers toward private credit.We break down oil-to-olefins-to-plastics value chain, US shale ethane cost edge vs Europe/China/Middle East, China’s self-sufficiency shift hurting Korea/Japan exporters, operating leverage mechanics, and demand signals from housing/autos/consumer goods signaling broader credit cycle risks like fallen angelsIn this episode we cover- Structural reset vs traditional downcycle in global chemicals and how that is being priced in credit spreads- How the industry turns oil and gas into ethylene, propylene, plastics and higher‑value products- Decades of growth in plastics: GDP‑plus demand and its main end markets (construction, autos, packaging, consumer goods)- Regional cost curves: Europe vs U.S. shale, China/APAC and the Middle East- China’s push for chemicals self‑sufficiency and its impact on exporters like Korea and Japan- Global overcapacity, collapsing utilization rates and what they mean for margins, leverage and returns on capital- Europe’s energy crisis, demand shortfalls and why plants are being shut permanently- Operating leverage in chemicals: why a small volume or margin shock can cut EBITDA by 60% and erode credit metrics- Why large integrated players are closing plants first, and what that means for bondholders and lenders- What the chemicals downturn reveals about global demand, the broader credit cycle and where risks may build nextGuestTim Riminton is a Senior Credit Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence covering basic materials, with a focus on European and U.S. chemicals. He has covered basic materials for over seven years and brings a credit‑focused perspective on how global overcapacity, regional cost differentials and policy choices are reshaping the sector and its capital structures.Subscribe & connect🔥 Subscribe for full episodes:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7al5J1-P_taxdFuPV92KSg?sub_confirmation=1📌 Connect with us:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fixed-floatingTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/FixedFloating#FinancePodcast #CreditPodcast #Chemicals #HighYieldCredit #Plastics #Overcapacity #China #EuropeEnergyCrisis #Petrochemicals #FixedFloating
In this episode of Fixed + Floating, we sit down with Jakub Lichwa, Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Sector Bond team at TwentyFour Asset Management, to explore how insurance companies invest, why private credit has become central to insurer portfolios, and how BDCs, private equity firms, and life insurers are increasingly converging into a single ecosystem of credit creation.
We dive into the mechanics of insurance balance sheets, the growth of private credit as an asset class, and the structural impact of PE-owned insurers on modern credit markets. This episode is a deep look at how long-dated liabilities, ALM constraints, solvency rules, and portfolio-return targets are driving one of the biggest shifts in global fixed income.
Topics we cover:
• What’s actually inside today’s private credit portfolios (direct lending, specialty finance, structured credit)
• How life insurers think about yield, duration, ALM, capital charges, and risk-based capital
• Why US, European, and Japanese insurers allocate to private credit differently
• The rise of private-equity-backed insurers and the new balance-sheet model
• How BDCs, insurers, and private-credit funds form a self-reinforcing funding ecosystem
• The incentives and systemic risks when asset managers control insurance balance sheets
• What could happen if annuity inflows slow or portfolio performance weakens
• Long-term implications for credit markets, liquidity, and financial stability
About the guest:
Jakub Lichwa is a member of the Multi-Sector Bond team at TwentyFour Asset Management. Previously, he was an Executive Director in credit trading at Goldman Sachs and held roles at RBC Capital Markets, Daiwa Capital Markets, and Moody’s. He holds degrees from the University of Bath and the University of Kansas.
Guest newsletter sign-up: https://fixedincome.twentyfouram.com/sign-up-blog-updates-uk
Slide deck:
https://1drv.ms/b/c/3256e611aeacc253/IQC7ZybnnNrPQ7ETAezdwy6VASN3923tRS_hMPkO6NMU6bQ?e=1qQG6w
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In this episode of Fixed + Floating, Professor Edward Altman (NYU Stern) explains the rise of shadow defaults and what credit investors should know about today’s evolving corporate credit landscape. We explore private credit growth, distressed exchanges, and hidden risks in loan and bond markets, and analyze what default patterns may signal for the next 12–24 months.
Edward Altman, creator of the Z-Score and one of the most influential thinkers in corporate credit, shares insights into how leveraged finance has evolved into a $5 trillion market, why private credit is growing, and where silent stress and shadow defaults are appearing across credit markets. His research remains foundational for investors, restructuring professionals, and financial institutions worldwide.
The discussion breaks down how credit cycles lead business cycles, why loan defaults are rising faster than bond defaults, the mechanics of distressed debt exchanges, and the evolution of the modern Z-Score. We also cover PIK toggles, liability management exercises, and hidden risks in private credit, helping professional investors understand the forces shaping credit markets today.
Slidedeck: https://1drv.ms/b/c/3256e611aeacc253/IQBNBxz0rmF8RIZxZBStfVCtAV3t2Twa2015NJrNj1ekQ1s?e=WngDx3
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n the debut episode of Fixed + Floating, Josef Pschorn sits down with Jared Muroff, Head of Special Situations at Octus, to examine the collapse of First Brands. We explore what went wrong, the market implications, and key lessons for credit investors and professionals navigating stressed corporate credit.
Jared Muroff, CFA, brings over a decade of buy-side and restructuring experience, including senior roles at Balbec Capital and ASM Capital. He shares insights into working capital finance, distressed situations, and Chapter 11 mechanics, providing guidance on how investors can assess and respond to credit risk in today’s markets.
This episode breaks down:
The root causes of the First Brands collapse
How working capital financing fueled the crisis
The mechanics and implications of its Chapter 11 restructuring
Rising legal fees and hidden bankruptcy costs
Recovery prospects and actionable trade ideas
How investors should think about pricing credit risk today
🔥 Subscribe for full episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7al5J1-P_taxdFuPV92KSg?sub_confirmation=1
📩 Email: Josef@fixedandfloating.com
📌 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter/X
#CreditInvesting #FinancePodcast #MacroMarkets #FixedFloating #FirstBrands #DistressedDebt
Inside First Brands’ Collapse - Snippet
Welcome to Fixed + Floating: The Credit Podcast! 🎙️
Launching this November, Fixed + Floating brings institutional credit investors in-depth conversations with leading voices in credit and macro markets. Our trailer gives you a sneak peek of the insights and strategies we’ll cover in full episodes.
Listen to expert discussions on:
- Credit markets and investment strategies
- Macro trends shaping global finance
- Interviews with industry leaders and market experts
Subscribe now on Spotify to never miss an episode: https://open.spotify.com/show/1AVhofAsVGoyC1xeIUda9K?si=4vjGpUrVQhS_KMboAsFUmg
Connect with us and learn more:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fixed-floating/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/FixedFloating