Musing on President Trump's interest in Venezuela, Russ Mould of A J Bell believes that second-guessing geopolitics is brutally difficult, although he can see why defence stocks are back in vogue. While Venezuela's oil has been much discussed, the United States doesn't really need more oil, thanks to shale. However, China does, which might make the country seem more interesting to Trump. However, there are plenty of other commodities there too. In the markets, gold, silver and now copper are at new highs. The latter has plenty of practical applications, including being needed for EVs. But it takes 10 years to bring a mine onstream. It's interesting that the commodity indices have remained so depressed despite these gains, but the indices are weighed down heavily by oil and gas. If markets are right to expect decent economic growth, then it's not a bad environment for commodities and cyclicals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The big stories of 2025 – Trump and AI – are likely to feature heavily in 2026, says Fergus Caheny of Evelyn Partners. Will the eye-watering expenditure we have seen produce enough profitability to justify the high ratings? He does not feel prices are yet in bubble territory but thinks the baton will change to concentrate on those companies that supply this year's AI winners. With the American mid-term elections coming up, investors will also be keen to know who will be the new Chair of the Federal Reserve. The UK economy has had a chequered year but, while UK markets offer some benefits, investors should look to diversify not just among sectors, but geographically too. Fergus believes that growth in India and the Asian subcontinent will become a big theme. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell comments that, given the headwinds buffetting markets in 2025, you would hardly expect it to have been such a fantastic year for assets. He suggests 5 topics for investors to consider in 2026: interest rates; AI; commodities; small caps; and cash returns. Monetary and fiscal policy (except taxes in the UK) was generally stimulative and looks likely to continue. We have little direct involvement in AI so, if it blows up, the UK will be less affected than other markets. Miners and oils have been great performers this year but the profit upgrades we're now seeing are mostly because of metal miners. Small caps have been nowhere to be seen. Why? It is not healthy if the small and medium-sized companies that employ 90% of workers are struggling. UK investors have seen over £180bn returned to them in 2025. That's over a 6% return on the All-Share Index, which should continue to support UK shares if things continue as they are. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that Rachel Reeves' Budget was delivered with an eye on the bond markets. Fortunately for her, the 10-year gilt has been steady since, even if it is higher than when Labour took over and has moved in a different direction to BoE interest rates. All equity investors have an interest in gilt yields, whether they know it or not. Russ reckons this year could be the UK's best performance since 2009. Derided as being dull for being heavy with banks, miners and emerging markets, those have all been good performers, while the once-popular dividend compounders have seen only 1 in the top 20 risers. They got ahead of a sensible value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Finlay Mathers of Edison discusses BP, which has changed strategy to give an emphasis to shareholder return, increasing investment in oil & gas by 20% while reducing transition investment by 70%. The company will be focussing on cost reductions and efficiency, strengthening its balance sheet and reducing net debt. Neil Shah of Edison returns to the topic of Games Workshop, which he has mentioned here before on more than one occasion. This one-time small company has now entered the FTSE and the shares are up 40% this year. It's an exceptionally well-run business and its Warhammer figurines will become even better known when the Amazon TV series approaches production. It has a very progressive dividend and, while it is on a PE of 30, it is a niche business that should keep growing at pace. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Neil Shah of Edison Group says markets were relieved that the Budget did nothing to undermine confidence. Banks reacted positively, as did Rank, along with wealth managers and financial services, as it will be increasingly punitive to save or invest outside a tax wrapper. High end housebuilders suffered and the tax increases won't help the consumer sector. For somebody looking for exposure to precious and strategic metals, Neil highlights the closed-end Baker Steel Resources Trust. It has increased net asset value 40% in a year. It trades on a 35% discount, as do many in the sector, but Neil feels over the long term this should narrow. Info on Edison website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the wake of Nvidia's 3rd quarter results, Russ Mould of A J Bell says that all capital expenditure booms come to an end because of over-investment. It is too soon to say how this one will turn out. He is intrigued, though, that AI tech needs energy and mined metals and yet capex in those sectors is very low. With AI, we need to see some return on the money invested. If it turns out to be the productivity boom we've been looking for, then people's perceptions towards mining and energy should change, although in both those fields it takes some time for capex to bear fruit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that the heathcare sector has had a torrid time recently but that many of the risks that caused the rerating are vanishing. Positives include demographics, innovation and the patent cliff, which is increasing M&A activity. He mentions some good specialist investment trusts worth considering. He also feels that small caps might soon come into their own, with Budget changes possibly benefitting them. There is plenty of value there and Rockwood Strategic, with a concentrated portfolio of just 25 stocks, has a really good track record, aiming for a 15% annual RoR. It's worth looking at their well-designed website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell and author of the Telegraph's Questor column wonders why the Chancellor gave a speech about giving a speech, comparing it to Hugh Dalton having to resign in 1947 for letting slip something in the Budget. But the Budget will be important for affecting the 10-year gilt yield, seen as the risk-free rate. Any other investments should be priced to provide higher returns. As examples, utilities are seen as bond proxies as there's little expected capital growth, whereas discounted cash flow models are used to price tech stocks. If the 10-year yield rises, it decreases the value of equities and vice versa. Investors should always bear in mind its importance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Neil Shah of Edison group feels that Primary Health Properties, which does what it says on the tin, will benefit from the takeover of Assura. 80-90% of its income is backed by the government so the shares can be compared to gilts, except that the company will produce growth and rising dividends. It's on a prospective yield of 7.7%. He is also upbeat on the UK market. American investors are looking for value, yield and safety outside the US and, despite all the doom and gloom, there are positive signs in the UK. Neil thinks there will be a Santa rally this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that he is being bombarded with questions about whether there will be a market meltdown. On the negative side are government debt and interest bills which inhibit growth and might lead to a deflationary bust; soaring private debt; the private credit wobble; unbalanced markets; and high valuations. On the positive side the US economy might run hot as Trump wants; central banks might cut interest rates; and AI could produce an amazing productivity boom. Nervous investors should maintain a diversified portfolio and keep nothing that is giving you ulcers or sleepless nights. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell considers what might happen to gold. How safe is it riding such a volatile bull? Gold, after all, generates no income. The price appears to be responding to a loss of central bank control, galloping debt and stubborn inflation, as well as central bank buying after US sanctions on Russia. The run may have gone far enough but investors who are interested should remember the importance of being diversified. Russ points out that silver and platinum are still very cheap relative to gold while oil is at relative multi-year lows. Mining stocks tend to lag the metal. Russ mentions a few but thinks broad mining ETFs could be more sensible. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group highlights the cards, gifts and party essentials company Card Factory. Recent results show store revenue up 1.5% like for like. Costs have risen 4.4% but the company is mitigating this and is shifting focus online. Mobile payment company Boku were made Company of the Year at the AIM Awards. They're a good example of how fintechs are growing. Boku, capitalised over £600m, are working with some very large international businesses. Revenue is up 27% like for like, they are delivering growth, improving profitability and have plenty of cash to keep investing. Edison believe there's a 60% upside. Notes for both companies are on the website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell remarks on the Bank of England slowing down its gilt sales. The 10-year gilt, currently 4.7%, is seen as the risk-free rate against which other bonds are rated, the risks with them being inflation, interest rates, credit risk and liquidity. With equities, there's a mysterious turning point where institutions feel it's safer to be in gilts. After its rise, the UK market isn't as attractive as it was. The cash yield on the FTSE is a lttle north of 6%. 19 of its companies offer more than the risk-free rate. The old rule of thumb was that if it's double, as one company is, it's "too good to be true". Where do we go from here, though, with a moribund economy and the UK still adding to its debts? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Neil Shah of Edison Group admires Next for its forward planning and economic predictions. Its latest report anticipates anaemic growth, depressed by poor job opportunities, excess government spending and regulation and a rising tax burden. Coming on top of news that fund managers are dumping UK equities at the fastest rate in 20 years, it feels like a turning of the tide. On a more optimistic note, he says that housebuilder Springfield Properties is pivoting its portfolio to build housing to take advantage of green-related construction in the north of Scotland and feels that there's a long way to go. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell returns to the topic of mining, particularly copper, in the wake of the link-up of Anglo American and Teck Resources. Copper is a great guide to the economic weather, with many industrial uses and being essential to electrification. Although nobody seems to be discussing it, Teck was trading at a big discount and has many possible synergies with Anglo. Russ also discusses some of the many indicators he finds useful as a guide to what markets are thinking. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Finlay Mathers of Edison highlights Futronic, an AIM-listed UK technology company specialising in extremely-high-frequency radio solutions for space, defence and communications. They've recently seen a sharp increase in growth and new contracts with Space X now account for almost half their revenue. Although it has a high rating, this reflects the step change in Futronic's growth rate. He also discussed BP, which has shifted back to its roots, focussing on shareholder returns and reducing costs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell suggests that miners and commodities are looking interesting. Greek energy and commodity giant Metlen is about to join the FTSE 100 although only 20% of it is metals-related (the rest is in energy). But gold and silver have been on a tear, copper is up, as is iron ore,and yet commodities are still at a multi-year cyclical low. Investors need to be careful about investing in indvidual companies, given the problems just revealed at Hochshild. But exposure to a basket of mining and commodity companies could be sensible. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group takes Simon Rose through their quarterly Consumer Watch report. The second quarter was hit by shocks like US tariffs while the labour market in the UK softened. Consumer confidence was weak here, in Europe and in North America, though 12 of the UK's 16 subsectors outperformed the market. Among undervalued companies with earnings momentum identified by Edison are Card Factory, Curry's and Trainline. The full report is on the Edison Group website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell is intrigued by Rolls-Royce's CEO saying his company is capable of being the largest in the FTSE. It's currently sixth. He also said he saw no need to moving the listing to the US as others have done, despite half its revenue coming from Stateside. Russ explains why US stocks are on almost double the UK rating and explains why switching the listing is not a free ticket to a higher multiple. But in any case, the era of big cap growth won't last for ever and investors may find better value elsewhere. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices