In this podcast, ING's James Knightley and Padhraic Garvey discuss President Trump's efforts to steer monetary policy - and the economic narrative - through high-profile firings at the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Trump administration has imposed a 15% tariff on EU pharmaceuticals and threatened even steeper levies elsewhere. At the same time, however, the government has issued ultimatums to 17 companies to cut drug costs. In this podcast, ING's Diederik Stadig explains why these competing goals cannot be reconciled, and what the strategy means for the industry - and for consumers in the US and Europe.
The US dollar's historic plunge has sent ripples across global currency markets. As its dominance falters, investors everywhere are asking, how far could it fall - and who stands to gain? In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, ING's Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky, and Deepali Bhargava share their views.
President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned 9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.
The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached.
ING’s Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year.
For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries.
In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.
A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent oil prices tumbling this week, as traders and investors bet that the bombing campaigns are over and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz - through which 21 million barrels of oil pass each day -will not be disrupted.
The drop in oil prices is good news for global growth – and for inflation, potentially giving central banks in Europe and the US some breathing room to cut interest rates later this year.
But is the crisis really over? Or have the risks simply evolved?
With geopolitical tensions still simmering, do investors ned to price in a more persistent risk premium?
In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson unpacks the outlook for oil, Bert Colijn explores the economic impact, and Francesceo Pesole looks at what it all means for the dollar.
President Trump's unpredictable trade policy has undermined confidence and deepened uncertainty across the global economy this year. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the outlook for the US, eurozone and UK economies in this new, unchartered territory while Chris Turner looks at the implications for financial markets.
Officials from China and the US will meet in Switzerland this week to de-escalate a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, deepened economic uncertainty, and triggered significant market volatility. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, discusses how the talks could unfold, and the impact of the tariffs on China’s economy this year and beyond.
President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2nd, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these exemptions may only be temporary have left investors deeply unsettled.
While much of the focus last week was on soaring Treasury yields and falling stock markets, corporate bonds were hit hard, too.
Spreads on corporate bonds widened by the most since the regional banking crisis two years ago, as investors demanded higher returns in a riskier, more unpredictable environment.
Bond funds have seen huge outflows and the market for new issues of debt has all but ground to a halt.
In this podcast, ING's Credit Strategist Tim Rahill explains why he remains so cautious about the market and why investors need to be selective.
US-EU tariffs are a threat to the export-driven economies of Central and Eastern Europe.
But ING economists argue that the region has ways to manage the disruption, and a trade war could serve as a much-needed catalyst for change.
In this podcast, a replay of our live webinar, ING’s Inga Fechner, Peter Virovacz, David Havrlant, Rafal Benecki, Valentin Tataru, and Muhammet Mercan explain why they think the region could prove to be more resilient than most expect.
The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that’s the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.
In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.
His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.
But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America’s financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets?
In this podcast, ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.
President Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend military support for Ukraine, coupled with his implicit threat to withdraw US forces from Europe unless Nato allies increase their defence spending, has upended the near 80-year transatlantic alliance, and left European countries scrambling to respond.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a ‘surge’ in defence spending and said nothing is off the table when it comes to raising money. Last week, she unveiled an €800bn plan to allow member states to increase spending and borrow money for defence purposes without violating the bloc’s strict budget rules.
But some EU member states have already pushed back, with highly indebted countries like Italy worried about the financial strain of the plan and Germany concerned about the implications for its fiscal conservatism.
So who will pay, how much will they pay, and what will it all mean for Europe’s economy, markets, and security?
In this podcast, ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski and Netherlands' Chief Economist Bert Colijn discuss the hard political and financial choices ahead for Europe and the chances of success.
In this podcast, ING commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey share their views on the outlook for energy, metals, and agriculture in the year ahead.
A new US president, trade war threats, political instability in Europe, and mounting fiscal concerns obscure the outlook for the global economy in 2025. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the themes that will shape the economy, inflation, and interest rates over the coming year.
Aluminium is an essential metal in our daily lives. It also plays a crucial role in the energy transition, and demand is soaring. But producing aluminium is highly energy-intensive, and urgent action is needed to reduce the industry's carbon footprint. In this podcast, ING's Ewa Manthey, Egor Fedorov, and Coco Zhang discuss the ongoing efforts to make the industry more sustainable.
ING FX strategists Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, and Frantisek Taborsky discuss how Donald Trump's policies will reshape global currency markets in the year ahead.
Credit markets reacted positively to the outcome of the US election, with spreads - the difference between yields on corporate bonds relative to those on government securities - narrowing across the board. But the longer term implications are more complicated.
ING analysts Jeroen van den Broek and Tim Rahill predict a tough year ahead for credit, with a Trump presidency one of 25 reasons to be cautious in 2025.
In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, Jeroen and Tim explain why they think spreads could widen next year and why investors need to be selective while strategists Suvi Platerink Kosenon and Jesse Norcross take a closer look at banks and real estate.
The countries of Central and Eastern Europe have successfully avoided the middle-income trap and evolved into high-income economies. The next challenge is to converge with the income levels enjoyed by some of the core EU economies. But this could prove more difficult. The old growth model, based on exports and cheap labour, has reached its limits, and a new strategy is now required.
In this week’s THINK aloud, a condensed replay of our live webinar, we discuss the long-term challenges and opportunities in the region, and share our views on the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy over the coming year.
Inflation is down and unemployment is rising. Have global central banks left it too late to start cutting interest rates? ING's economists and analysts share their views in this week's THINK aloud.
The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are largely in recovery mode. Slowing inflation and rising real wages have boosted consumer spending, which should continue to support GDP growth well into 2025.
Meanwhile, on the investment front, the region is drawing substantial interest from large multinational corporations, as its strategic location, low cost base and skilled workforce position it as an ideal hub for nearshoring.
The benefits of EU accession have been tangible across the board. But of course, there are short- and longer-term challenges.
In this podcast, a condensed replay of our live Webinar, our team of experts share their views on Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday from a record high of 4%. It’s an unusual move for two reasons: There’s no recession or crisis to precipitate a cut – in fact the eurozone economy has recently shown signs of improvement. And it comes ahead of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which has traditionally led the way for the ECB, but isn’t expected to ease policy until later in the year. In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live quarterly webinar, ING’s Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley discuss why policymakers are currently pursuing different paths, how long the divergence could last, and whether the coming US and European elections could influence decisions on monetary policy. James Smith looks at the timing of a Bank of England rate cut amid a crucial UK vote while Chris Turner explains what it could all mean for the markets.