This week on "Know More. Risk Better." features host Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy at CreditSights, and Zachary Griffiths, Head of IG & Macro Strategy, as they reflect on a turbulent 2025 in US credit markets and preview the landscape for 2026. The conversation dives into defining moments of the year, lessons learned, and the persistent impact of technicals and liquidity on market resilience.  Winnie and Zach tackle the complexities of forecasting interest rates, the impact of monetary policy surprises, and the effects of tariffs and trade policy on investment grade corporates, while debating new issue supply, the dynamics between high yield and broadly syndicated loans, and looming refinancing risks. Additional highlights include a candid lightning round on private credit, covenant quality, and AI CapEx, as well as a discussion on the importance of risk assessment and the paradigm shift in market behavior post-pandemic. This episode offers key insights for navigating a complex, late-cycle credit environment heading into 2026. 

Season 9, Episode 22 This week on "Know More. Risk Better." features host Winnie Cisar along with Mark Lightner, for a comprehensive review of the 2026 Special Situations Outlook. The conversation examines the liability management transaction landscape, highlighting how creditor-on-creditor dynamics remained largely unchanged in 2025 despite the landmark Serta decision. The team explores the emerging antitrust challenge to creditor cooperation agreements, with two recent lawsuits (Selecta and Altice USA) alleging federal antitrust violations and seeking treble damages. Lightner discusses why this represents "the most important issue going into 2026" and how it could fundamentally alter the collaborative approach to restructurings. The discussion also covers the high-stakes Monsanto litigation heading to the Supreme Court, which could determine whether the $40 billion debt company faces bankruptcy over Roundup-related claims.  

Season 9, Episode 21 This week on "Know More. Risk Better." features host Zachary Griffiths along with Andy DeVries, for a data center deep dive following the Edison Electric Institute investor conference. The conversation examines the supply-demand disconnect in data center capacity, with utilities committing to approximately 100 gigawatts of new capacity by 2030 against third-party estimates indicating only 50 gigawatts of actual demand.The team explores the rate payer protections utilities are implementing to mitigate overbuild risk, counterparty concerns when data centers move off balance sheet into special purpose vehicles, and credit quality implications across the sector. DeVries also discusses why independent power producers like Vistra may be better positioned than traditional utilities, and the potential for political intervention in capacity markets as electricity bills become a midterm election issue.  

This week “Know More. Risk Better.” delivers a comprehensive 2026 Global Strategy Outlook, featuring expert analysis across US, European, Emerging Markets, and APAC credit sectors. CreditSights Global Strategy team opens with a review of macro and policy trends, including US growth slowdown, Fed rate cut trajectory, proactive ECB action, and regional fiscal stimulus. Speakers examine credit fundamentals, spread forecasts, and sector performance, highlighting drivers such as labor market fragility, tariff volatility, and AI-driven issuance.   The team discusses implications for investment grade, high yield, and leveraged finance, as well as EM sovereign and local currency bonds, outlining risks and opportunities for investors. Best practices in sector allocation, quality bias, and diversification are emphasized as the market navigates technical shifts, supply pressures, and evolving global risks. Panelists conclude with actionable insights and 2026 “bingo card” scenarios, stressing the importance of fundamentals, positioning, and agility for credit market participants. 

This week on "Know More. Risk Better." brings together hosts Winnie Cisar and Zachary Griffiths along with Peter Simon, Todd Duvick, and Jory Eisenberg for an "Autos Mythbuster" edition examining auto loan performance, consumer credit health, and whether rising repossession rates signal broader systemic risk. The team explores the bifurcation in consumer credit by income tier, the backward-looking nature of current delinquency and repo data, and why 2022 vintage loans have proven particularly problematic due to aggressive post-COVID origination, elevated vehicle prices, and deteriorating affordability for lower-income consumers. Peter and Todd discuss diverging trends at CarMax and Carvana, regional variations in auto loan performance, and the impact of extraordinary vehicle price depreciation on underwater loans. The team analyzes new and used car affordability challenges, tariff impacts on vehicle pricing, Ford and GM's profit-driven strategies, and the stabilization of competitive dynamics in the auto sector. They examine the ABS market's role in auto lending, loan-to-value considerations, and the minimal exposure of larger banks to subprime auto risk. This insightful discussion provides valuable context for credit analysts, investors, and market participants seeking to understand consumer credit trends, auto sector dynamics, and risk management in today's economy.

This week on "Know More. Risk Better." brings together host Logan Miller along with Luke Millar for a comprehensive analysis of the European leveraged finance landscape, examining 2025 market performance, primary market dynamics, and the outlook for 2026. The discussion covers record issuance volumes driven by refinancing, sector performance in chemicals and energy, and increased dividend recap transactions due to muted LBO activity.     Logan and Luke examine widening triple C spreads, recent market disruptions affecting sentiment, and the impact of high first-call premiums on refinancing. They also assess CLO demand via warehouse data, potential growth in M&A and sponsor activity, and Europe’s capacity for large LBOs post-EA deal. Additional topics include the 2026-2028 maturity wall, US firms issuing in euros for cheaper funding (reverse Yankees), and the rise of private credit as a significant capital source. This essential discussion provides strategic insights to navigate refinancing waves, re-leveraging trends, and capital structure optimization in today's complex European credit markets.  

This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” brings together host Zachary Griffiths along with Barry Eichengreen and Cedric Chehab for a deep dive into the parallels and differences between the Roaring Twenties, the Great Depression, and today’s global financial landscape. The panel explores historical market booms, the impact of new technologies, fiscal dominance, and political polarization, drawing comparisons with current risks and central bank responses.    Barry and Cedric discuss the structural constraints of the gold standard, lessons from banking crises, and the evolving role of non-bank financial systems. They analyze deflation risks, the future of the US dollar, and the rise of gold in central banks’ portfolios, highlighting ongoing challenges for policymakers and investors. This insightful discussion provides valuable context for professionals and market participants seeking to understand macroeconomic trends, global finance, and risk management in today’s interconnected world. 

This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Zachary Griffiths is joined by Peter Simon and Meghan Neenan to unpack the latest “cockroach risk” headlines in U.S. capital markets, following bankruptcies at Tricolor and First Brands. The team analyzes credit quality trends for regional banks and BDCs, finding that fundamentals remain solid and recent losses are idiosyncratic, not symptomatic of broader stress.  Meghan highlights differentiation across BDCs, notes that exposures to recent bankruptcies were minimal and mainly linked to broadly syndicated loans, not private credit. The discussion explores leverage, dividend management as rates fall, and a looming 2026 maturity wall. The team flags growing liquidity and suitability risks as perpetual BDCs and private asset vehicles expand and touches on the increasing interconnectedness between banks and non-bank lenders. 

Season 9, Episode 15This week "Know More. Risk Better." offers a comprehensive macro outlook for 2026, examining how private sector adaptation and fiscal stimulus helped mitigate 2025's tariff shocks while exploring key takeaways from recent IMF meetings - including cautious relief on trade impacts, excitement about AI-driven capex, and concerns about equity valuations and labor market weakness. The discussion navigates critical tensions facing policymakers, particularly the Fed's challenge balancing conflicting inflation and employment signals, debates over tariff pass-through to consumer prices, and questions about AI investment sustainability amid uncertain returns. The panel analyzes market-macro disconnects as equities rally despite mounting headwinds, assesses German fiscal expansion's potential boost to European growth, and highlights China's structural vulnerabilities beneath headline GDP figures, including collapsing fixed asset investment and persistent deflation. The episode concludes with contrarian takes for 2026: potential dollar strength despite bearish consensus, heightened China macro risks, and fundamentals returning to credit markets after a technically-driven year, providing essential perspective for navigating policy uncertainty and evolving global risks.

Season 9, Episode 14  This week “Know More. Risk Better.” offers a focused analysis on the SEC’s potential shift from quarterly to semiannual reporting, highlighting legal, covenant, and credit market impacts as the change is considered for US issuers. The panel begins with an overview of the SEC rulemaking process and regulatory drivers, then explores practical and legal challenges, such as disclosure consistency, litigation risks, and the continued role of anti-fraud obligations. Covenant experts review implications for bond and loan agreements, noting that most public company covenants defer to SEC requirements, while sponsor and private deals often maintain stricter quarterly reporting regardless of regulatory changes.   The discussion also examines market dynamics, including investor pressure for timely updates, impacts on spreads and volatility, and possible changes in management communication strategies. The team assesses how reduced reporting frequency may influence market structure, sell-side research, liquidity, and ETF rebalancing, emphasizing the importance of best practices for consistent material event disclosures. Panelists conclude that while the rule change may require a gradual adjustment period, actual market impacts will depend on issuer fundamentals, covenant language, and evolving investor expectations. 

Season 9, Episode 13 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Zachary Griffiths sits down with Hunter Martin and Kerry Kantin to break down the largest LBO on record: EA’s $55 billion take-private deal. The team unpacks the investor consortium behind the transaction, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, explores why the equity check is unusually large, and analyzes the implications for EA’s balance sheet, leverage, and outstanding bonds.  They discuss deal timing, with early 2026 targeted for closing, and regulatory hurdles including antitrust and national security reviews. The conversation expands to current market conditions, expectations for future LBO activity, and the impact of elevated rates and AI-driven growth on deal making. Listen for clear takeaways on base case scenarios, market probabilities, and positioning around legal and macro catalysts that could influence spreads and sector performance. 

Season 9, Episode 12 This extended episode provides a comprehensive outlook across US, Euro, EM, and APAC credit markets as we head into 4Q25 and 2026. In US Credit Markets, the team sets an updated macro outlook and credit strategy, flags key trends shaping sovereign and corporate credit, and identifies the risk factors and market catalysts to watch. In Euro Credit Markets, they review sovereign and credit fundamentals, assess sector developments and potential issuer themes, and discuss the implications of policy and macro shifts across the region. For Emerging Market Sovereigns, they share the latest perspectives on EM credit risk and performance, highlight regional and country-specific views, and outline approaches to navigating volatility in global EM credit. In APAC Credit Markets, they examine risk factors and market catalysts, provide the latest read on APAC EM credit risk and performance, and review sovereign and corporate credit fundamentals across the region.

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E5 In the finale of our 25 for 25 series, Winnie Cisar and Zachary Griffiths host CreditSights Co-Heads Erin Lyons and Matt Zloto to explore the future of credit research. They discuss AI’s role in improving efficiency and expanding coverage, the rise of private credit and related regulatory implications, and why people-powered insights and skeptical analysis still matter - plus how CreditSights is investing in talent and purpose-built tools to cut through noise and deliver actionable ideas.

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E4 Winnie Cisar and Zachary Griffiths host a special 25th anniversary roundtable with Tony Canale, Luke Millar, Andrew Maier, and Beau Kuhn exploring how collaboration across the CreditSights and wider Fitch family creates investor advantage. They break down how news flow from LFI, covenant insights from Covenant Review, fundamental analysis from CreditSights, and data standardization from Bixby combine to deliver what Beau calls "the power of three plus data and analytics." Expect candid insights on how human expertise remains the essential differentiator in an increasingly data-driven world, plus a preview of future innovations including enhanced primary transaction coverage, European BSL market expansion, and AI-powered trade idea generation that will further integrate the "technicolor picture" these complementary businesses create together.

Season 9, Episode 11 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Logan Miller sits down with Mariya Nurgaziyeva, CFA and Amarveer Singh to decode a mixed European consumer backdrop with real credit implications. They unpack why personal consumption is lagging other growth drivers, what a pause in ECB cuts and softening labor markets mean, and how country-specific pressures in Germany, France, and the UK are filtering into earnings and spreads. Then they tackle tariffs and input costs - who’s truly exposed (spirits and luxury), why the hit has been more manageable than feared, and how mitigation via cost cuts, pass-throughs, and near-shoring is playing out. They map commodity pressures (vegetable oils, cocoa, coffee, dairy, beef, poultry), the surge in private label as volumes flag, and where pricing power still holds - like coffee. Expect clear takeaways on what’s driving consumer sentiment, base cases versus market worries, and how to position around sector and country catalysts that could move spreads—whether they widen on cost shocks or keep grinding tighter on defensives and experience-led demand.

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E3 Host Winnie Cisar (Global Head of Strategy) is joined by Andy DeVries (Head of US Investment Grade; Head of Utilities), Eric Axon (Co-Head of High Yield; Head of Healthcare), and Mary Pollock (Head of Real Estate) to discuss the art and science of credit analysis. The conversation centers on turning information into decisions by blending quantitative analysis with qualitative judgment. Andy DeVries illustrates how sector data can inform relative value views. Eric Axon emphasizes a process-first approach that starts with the numbers before incorporating management behavior and industry context. Mary Pollock underscores the importance of governance, incentives, and disclosure - using company materials and past actions to test narratives - and how real-world inflection points refine instincts over time. The team also share approaches for developing junior talent, filtering noise during busy news cycles, gauging consensus, and recognizing potential turning points - balancing art and science to produce clear, actionable credit recommendations.

Season 9, Episode 10 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Winnie Cisar sits down with Mark Lightner to decode a whirlwind legal backdrop with real market stakes. They break down the Lisa Cook case - what a last-minute appellate decision could mean for Fed independence, who’s in the room for the next rate call, and how today’s legal signals shape the FOMC’s 2026 lineup. Then they tackle the Supreme Court’s fast-track review of IEEPA tariffs - what the justices will decide, why non-delegation matters, and how a reversal could ripple through refunds, trade deals, and positioning. Finally, they map the broader playbook of government intervention - from agency pressure and funding leverage to DOJ lawsuits - and how it’s hitting sectors differently. Expect clear takeaways on timelines, base cases versus market expectations, and how to position around legal catalysts that could move spreads - whether they break wider or keep grinding tighter. (Please note, this podcast was recorded on Monday, September 15 at 4.30pm EDT)

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E2 Hosts Winnie Cisar (Global Head of Strategy) and Zachary Griffiths, CFA (Head of US IG & Macro Strategy) are joined by Chris Snow (Global Head of Research), Pramod Shenoi (Head of Asia Pacific Research; Head of Financials, APAC), Brian Studioso (Head of Research, Europe) to discuss navigating credit crises. The conversation explores how experience and disciplined analysis shape CreditSights’ response to market shocks - from the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19, to policy-driven volatility. The team weighs speed-to-market versus quality, emphasizes management quality and disclosure, and examines liquidity dynamics (“sell what you can”). They discuss calling market bottoms by tracking cross-segment flows, maintaining risk/reward discipline when spreads are tight, and leveraging global client engagement and teamwork to build resilience and deliver trusted, actionable research.

Season 9, Episode 09 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Zachary Griffiths interviews Winnie Cisar on the real state of the U.S. consumer and what it means for credit into 2026. They cut through mixed signals - solid balance sheets vs. sticker shock on everyday items like Chick-fil-A, rising car payments, and a cooling jobs market - to explain how spending, inflation, and policy expectations are shaping spreads. Winnie lays out why payroll weakness hasn’t cracked credit, how market cash and technicals are cushioning moves, and what could finally shift sentiment. Expect clear takeaways on positioning, risks to watch, and the scenarios that might push spreads wider - or let them grind tighter. 

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E1 Hosts Winnie Cisar (Global Head of Strategy) and Zachary Griffiths, CFA (Head of US IG & Macro Strategy) sit down with European veterans Simon Adamson (Head of European Financials), Andy Belton (Head of European Basics & Infrastructure), and Andrew Moulder (Head of European Utilities) to explore the origins and evolution of independent credit research at CreditSights. The conversation revisits the founding vision, the launch of our London office, and defining moments from the Global Financial Crisis. The team discusses why cash flow analysis remains core, how relative value migrated from CDS to bonds, and the rise of complex instruments like hybrids and bank bail-in capital. They also dig into client engagement and reverse inquiry (including early work on Icelandic banks), and how European banks, utilities, and infrastructure credit have transformed over two decades.