Cutting that land is tempting when you build your draft deck. But is it? This time I explore some data on what are the features of a successful 16 land deck, which cards make it tick and which are not pulling their weight.
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How often did you regret a draft pick after the draft? That lingering feeling you should have made a different choice in a 50:50 decision? Well, hopefully today I will convince you to worry less. We will look at the cost of abandoning the picks and I will make a semi-coherent case that if your card evaluation is OK, you will end up just fine. We are also going to learn why pack 1 picks are more important for finding a lane than for providing playables. We even venture (only for a bit) into constructed world.
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17Lands win rates we look at the most show us how much a card is winning in all the decks it has been put into. And for many cards, this is enough. They are either generically good and play well in most shells, or generically bad and should be avoided. But what about those exceptions?Well, sometimes the generic win rate can be misleading. Some cards with. low win rate perform very well in one specific color pair - you miss on it and you are haemorrhaging those precious win rate percentages. For example, Fire Navy Trebuchet in the last set has middling win rate but does exceptionally well in White-Black decks. In this episode I painstakingly go through all the cards in the set where dat was available and try to add that extra level of granularity to boost your win rates.
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Episode #169
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New set is upon us and it feels great! Drafts are fun, mechanics feel awesome, and there is still plenty left to discover. And this is why we are here: to lok at the early data and give you some pointers on what works so far and where to look for new possibilities. We will look at most powerful colors, cards, and what makes each of the 10 color pairs tick.
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Join out deck-centric eccentric set review. Instead of reviewing individual cards, we are looking at whole decks for each color pair - how would we build them, which cards are we hopeful for and what synergies will be key in the early days of the format once it hits the Arena. My guests this time are SamP (Sam Pratt): https://bsky.app/profile/sampratt.bsky.socialZachy K (Zach Kagan): https://bsky.app/profile/zakagan.bsky.socialAnd Tresio (Mike Reiners): https://x.com/Tresio
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Episode #167
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Spider-Man set has not exactly been a crowd pleaser, but that should not distract us from some positive features it had. As far as I am not impressed by its execution, the idea of a pick 2 draft is interesting and I would love to see it implemented again - in a better balanced set. The concept of smaller pod and picking 2 cards has massive implications on the signals sent and received in the draft - and in this episode I do a bit of a refresher on draft signals altogether and dive into some OM1 17Lands data to try and see what was the impact of Spider-Man on how the signals work.
If you want to see my feature match from Liverpool + the interview with Martin Juza, here is the link:https://www.youtube.com/live/EMvNSz5nSPE?si=g29U2u3z7wwVI82K&t=20759
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New set upon us and it is a challenging one. But worth giving it at least a couple of tries and you want to be prepared for that. What colors tick and which are duds? Which cards overperform and which failed to fulfil their promise? And why are there so many spiders in this definitely in-universe set? Find out the answers to at least some of those questions in my lates episode.
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New set is upon us so it is time for our unique deck-centric, eccentric set review. Smaller set, smaller crew, so this time me, Sam Pratt from the Rough Drafts podcast and Zach Kagan (see below for their details) go through the specifics of Marvel's Spider-Man and look at which cards we expect to do well, which ones we have little trust in and how would we build each of the 5 supported decks. Which cards will matter and define the format? What can flop and what considerations do we need to take into account when starting with SPD. Check my guest's socials:https://linktr.ee/roughdraftshttps://bsky.app/profile/zakagan.bsky.social
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Today's episode is all about card evaluation. I look at cards from the recent past which were either amazingly good, sneakily good but under-appreciated by the community or traps that looked like they might be good but did not deliver. What vcan we learn from those cards? Are there any common themes? How to recognise a potential trap early or how to pick hidden gems more reliably?
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Episode #163
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Today we get a great guest - Sam Pratt from Rough Drafts podcast and we are talking about how to figure out builds, what role does the data play in that process and in the process figure out some key features of successful build-arounds in the format. Sam is someone worth following - you can find their socials / podcast here:https://linktr.ee/roughdrafts
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Week one data can only get you that far in understanding the format. To get a full grasp on it we need to go a bit deeper than the superficial. Today we try to look at cards in the context of their best homes. Yes, some cards are universally good, but some require a bit more thought put into where they belong or - even more tricky - where they don't belong. And through those unique (or uniquely bad) cards, we can also start speculating on the most consistent game plans for each color pair.
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New set, early start and people are struggling a bit - this is where data can be truly helpful. Get some ideas on what the format is all about through the lens of numbers. Green looks solid but what makes other colors tick? And what should you be cautious about when interpreting the early numbers?
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The new set is upon us so it is time to reanimate the Skeleton Crew. Our eccentric, deck-centric set review is back!! Through the means of ancient necromancy we have summoned Jason Ye, Sam Pratt (of the Rough Drafts podcast - give it a try) and Tresio to debate Edge of Eternities cards, decks and colors. Invaluable prep for your pre-release or just to hit the drafts running as soon as it gets released on Arena. Someone on Reddit said that this is the best set review format on the market - so it must be true!We built deck skeletons for each color pair in the new set using some arcane and very arbitrary rules and we try to review the set through the lens of those prototype decks. Find my esteemed guests on Bsky: @JasonILTG, @sampratt or on X @tresio
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Once per set I try to explore some new data concepts and try to give you, the viewer, some insight into the research process while trying to answer some questions related to limited Magic that interest me. This week episode is all about openness in draft lanes - something Final Fantasy was mage for as a very well balanced set. And this led me to a new concept - negative space win rates. How does not having a card in your deck impact the win rate. And how is it different from not drawing a card you have in your deck in a game.
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Watch this episode and see the slides: Episode #158 vid
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Mr Sierkovitz goes to Vegas - in spirit only. I teamed up with Team Cosmos to help them in their Pro Tour prep and you can now see how it went. PT prep needs to be fast and efficient - as there are only few days between the set release and the competition. So this hypercondensed seminar goes through all cards in the set and tries to put as much context as possible in as little time as possible. We go through general power, but also look at best homes for each card is applicable. Working with legends of the game is easy as they will use their own judgement in the best way possible but not all Pros are Limited specialists so I made sure that the talk is also useful to an average Arena player - so if you want to get a good overview of the format - look no further. It is probably the fastest set review ever and a useful one at that as it is not based on uncertainties before the release but on data driven approaches, albeit based on imperfect early data. Bunch of caveats apply - I tried to highlight as many as possible, but use caution all through, particularly for rarer cards where sample size is still relatively small. Thanks to Team Cosmos - it was great to take part in their prep and see the inner workings of a pro team and observe some masters at work.
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Watch this episode and see the slides: Episode #157 vid
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New set is here, and Final Fantasy looks from the early days like a potential all-timer for us limited folks. And getting into the nitty gritty of it should start with getting some fundamentals - what colors look good (spoiler - all of them), which color pairs should you be playing (spoiler - also all of them) and which cards overperform (spoiler - ok - not all of them, for this you need to watch the episode). I look through each color pair and try to find what is best, what is under-explored but good and warn you of any traps for more successful drafting.
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Watch this episode and see the slides: Episode #156 vid
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
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I am joined by a motley crew of Limited sickos for our eccentric deck-centric set review. We look at some basic info about the upcoming Final Fantasy set and then present our deck skeletons - 40 card functional? decks in each color pair in order to showcase what we think is going to be good in the format. We look at cards in context, as pieces of a synergistic whole, to try and think beyond raw card power. My guests this week are Tresio, Springbok7 and SamP - all Limited fans, all great drafters. They debate and discuss their builds with me playing the role of a moderator and an annoying nitpicker. A role I do truly love.You can find Tresio athttps://x.com/TresioSpringbok7 at https://www.twitch.tv/springbok7and SamP at https://bsky.app/profile/sampratt.bsky.socialor you can check out his excellent podcast: Rough Drafts:https://open.spotify.com/show/4OnYIYmoCdnnlC7pUVyM0A
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Watch this episode and see the slides: Episode #155 vid
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
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New set is upon us and we have an impossible task of figuring out which cards are grerat and which are traps without the advantage of having them ever in our hands. Data won't solve that problem but it can definitely help, by looking at the general trends in card power across mana values, colors, etc. Also we can look into the amazing #P0P1 initiative from MTG_DS, where hundreds of people put their bets on the best cards in a set before its release (which mtg_ds kindly shared with me). This let me look at the wisdom of the crowd - what cards were widely liked but turned out to be duds, which cards nobody saw coming. Why some cards fly under the radar, while some lure us into the trap?Here is the example fo P0P1 results from TMD for reference - make sure to give MTG_DS a follow - in the end it stands for Magic Data Science, you should be interested!https://x.com/mtg_ds/status/1920641850546815335
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Watch this episode and see the slides: Episode #154 vid
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
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Sealed data - the title sort of says it all ;) - will edit later (or will I?)
This week we try to add a little bit context to the Tarkir: Dragonstorm drafts. Yes, some cards have high win rate, but who cares? That doesn't mean you should cram them in any deck. Some cards have a low win rate - again - that doesn't make them unplayable. They just need the right home. Today, with some 17Lands numbers I try to figure out what cards make the 6 main color combinations of this format tick.
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Watch this episode and see the slides: Episode #152 vid
This podcast is sponsored by mtgazone.com - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business.
You can get the BulkBox if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount!If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website.