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On January 3rd, the US military struck Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump has declared that America will now “run” the country, shifting from a narrative which had focused on the US fighting a war against drug traffickers to a narrative which sees the US assert control over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.
Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR research director, and Nacho Torreblanca, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss why America decided to capture Maduro and what this could mean for the domestic situation in Venezuela—as well as its wider implications for other areas, including Greenland.
What were Trump’s motivations? Will the US increasingly use military force to secure resources and territory across the Americas and the north Atlantic? And could Greenland be next?
Bookshelf
Morir en la arena (To Die in the Sand) by Leonardo Padura
The Revolutionary Temper: Paris, 1748-1789 by Robert Darnton
This podcast was recorded on January 5th 2026
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This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026.
Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come?
This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025.
Bookshelf
The Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift
Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze
Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana Puglierin
Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026)
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China’s tightening of export controls on rare earths and related technologies across 2025 marked a turning point in Europe’s economic security. Even with Beijing’s partial and momentary rollback after talks with Washington, a Damocles sword still hangs over Europe’s industrial base—from defence to semiconductors and clean tech.
And with China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and Made in China 2035, Europe faces the triple threat of coercion, industrial corrosion and loss of sensitive business intelligence.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke, senior policy fellow at ECFR covering economic security and European economic strategy, and Andrew Small, the new director of the ECFR’s Asia programme. Together, they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response.
How seriously should Europeans take the threat of Chinese coercion? In which industries can Europe realistically compete with Beijing? And where are Europe’s potential partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America for alternative supply chains?
This episode was recorded on December 15 2025
Bookshelf
Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization by Ed Conway
The Reckoning by David Halberstam
“Isch vorbei” by Süddeutsche Zeitung
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow with ECFR’s MENA programme and chairman of the Brussels-based European Middle East Project (EuMEP).
Together, they discuss Ellie’s and Hugh’s experiences at the Doha Forum: from Gaza’s fragile future and Iran’s nuclear conundrum, to America’s role as a security guarantor in the Middle East—especially for Iran’s nuclear deal.
Will America still be considered as the security guarantor in the Arab world, or is Trump still interested in the Iran nuclear compromise? Will the outcome of a future Israeli election fundamentally change the country's foreign policy? And who holds the real power in Gaza’s future governance—the international community, or Palestinians themselves?
This episode was recorded on December 10th 2025
Bookshelf:
The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad by Thomas Hegghammer
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America has published its new National Security Strategy (NSS)—and it contains worrying rhetoric about the EU, European values and the transatlantic relationship. Russia, however, is never described as a threat or competitor. In fact, Moscow has welcomed the document as being “largely consistent with Russia’s vision”.
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Gladden Pappin, president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, co-founder and deputy editor of American Affairs journal, and co-founder of the online magazine Postliberal Order, and Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s US programme and long-time observer of the American right’s foreign policy. Together, they break down what’s behind the NSS and what its real impact on Europe might be.
What are the NSS’s ideological roots? How seriously should Europeans take the strategy and possible threats coming from the US? And what does the NSS mean for the future of the transatlantic relationship?
Bookshelf:
Reading Trump’s National Security Strategy: Europe through a distorted lens by Carl Bildt
It’s time Europe got to grips with the MAGA challenge, writes Mark Leonard by Mark Leonard
Europeans can’t let Trump define what it means to be European by Pawel Zerka
This episode was recorded on December 11th 2025
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China’s rise has long fascinated policymakers, economists and technologists. But few observers have studied the country’s technological ambitions as closely as Dan Wang, research fellow at the Hoover History Lab at Stanford University and author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.
This week, Mark welcomes Dan to discuss the ideas behind his book, including the dichotomy between China’s “engineering state" and the West’s “lawyerly” societies. Together, they unpack what China is getting right—and where its model is lagging.
What is the Chinese government getting wrong? Is the Chinese model now coming under strain? What would it take for Europe to remain competitive in the 21st century? And how is China projecting its model across Africa and South-East Asia?
Bookshelf:
Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future by Dan Wang
Allies at War: How the Struggles Between the Allied Powers Shaped the War and the World by Tim Bouverie
This episode was recorded on November 21st 2025
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The European Council on Foreign Relations turned 18 in November 2025. This milestone offers a unique moment to reflect on the world in which ECFR was founded—and how dramatically it has changed. In 2007, Europe had the world’s confidence: democracy seemed secure, globalisation was a force for opportunity, EU enlargement was reshaping the continent, and peace felt almost guaranteed. So how did Europe move from the hopeful 2000s to a world of power blocs and war?
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR co-chairs Carl Bildt, former prime and foreign minister of Sweden, Lykke Friis, former Danish minister of climate, energy and gender equality, and Norbert Röttgen, member of the German parliament, to take stock, 18 years after ECFR began. They assess what Europe misunderstood then; what it must confront now; and what the next two decades might look like.
Why did Europe need a pan-European foreign policy think-tank like ECFR in 2007? Why does it still need one today? And how has ECFR has helped shape debates and policies over the past 18 years?
Bookshelf:
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
This podcast was recorded on November 24th 2025.
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In this emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security Programme, and Jim O’Brien, former US assistant secretary of state for Europe and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to dissect the leaked 28-point US-Russia framework for ending the Ukraine war.
Kyiv has rejected the proposal as a capitulation and Europeans are insisting on a seat at the table. Together, Mark, Jana and Jim examine the feasibility of the plan’s core demands, given Ukraine’s battlefield resilience and Europe’s pushback. What does the plan reveal about the Trump administration’s approach? Can Europe shape a settlement that safeguards Ukraine’s sovereignty? Or will Ukraine be coerced into a deal on Russia’s terms?
This podcast was recorded on November 21st, 2025.
Bookshelf:
Drunk: How We Sipped, Danced, and Stumbled Our Way to Civilization by Edward Slingerland
Algorithms for the People by Josh Simons
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Europe’s most ambitious defence project is in deep trouble. Europe’s Future Combat Air System (FCAS), presented as the crown jewel of Franco-German cooperation, was meant to deliver a next-generation defence system ready to meet the demands of an increasingly dangerous world. Instead, the FCAS showcases diverging visions of European air power and raises questions about the continent’s strategic autonomy.
This week, Mark is joined by Ulrike Franke, ECFR senior policy fellow and expert on defence, security and drones. Together, they explore why FCAS keeps running into dead ends—from persistent rifts between Dassault and Airbus to political disagreements between Paris and Berlin.
What do the developments around the FCAS reveal about the strength of the Franco-German motor in the EU? What happens if the project collapses? And what would it mean for Europe’s quest for strategic autonomy?
Bookshelf:
Char de combat: obsolescence ou renaissance? by Léo Péria-Peigné
The ideas letter curated by Leonard Benardo
This episode was recorded on November 19th 2025
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Across Europe, immigration and integration have become pressing political issues. The far right is surging in national polls, and debates over borders and national identity are reshaping party systems and public life.
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Sunder Katwala, director of the think-tank British Future and author of How to Be a Patriot, and Lawen Redar, spokesperson for integration for the Swedish Social Democratic party and a member of Sweden’s parliament. Together, they discuss how Sweden shifted from the EU’s most liberal migration country to tighter border controls, how parallel societies are emerging, and how both Sweden and Britain are struggling to define who “we” are in increasingly diverse societies.
How can European societies combine stricter border policies with fair and effective integration? Can social democrats rebuild a shared narrative of national belonging without slipping into ethno-nationalism? And how can Europe avoid importing the most negative elements of America’s culture war?
Bookshelf:
How to Be a Patriot: Why love of country can end our very British culture war by Sunder Katwala
Why Immigration Policy Is Hard: And How to Make It Better by Alan Manning
Head, Hand, Heart: Why Intelligence Is Over-Rewarded, Manual Workers Matter, and Caregivers Deserve More Respect by David Goodhart
This episode was recorded on November 14th 2025
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In recent years, military juntas have replaced democratically elected governments in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. These have expelled European forces and welcomed Russian mercenaries—yet stability in these countries remains elusive.
This week, Mark is joined by Will Brown, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s Africa programme and author of the recent policy brief “The Bear and the Bot Farm: Countering Russian Hybrid Warfare in Africa”, and Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at global risk consultancy Control Risks. Together, they unpack Russia’s ambitions in Africa and the shifting geopolitical landscape across the Sahel.
How does Moscow’s vast propaganda machine continue to shape public opinion in the region? How is the Kremlin using disinformation to expand its influence? And what options remain for Europe in a region where its power is fast fading?
Bookshelf:
The Bear and the Bot Farm: Countering Russian Hybrid Warfare in Africa by Will Brown
The Lumumba Plot: The Secret History of the CIA and a Cold War Assassination by Stuart A. Reid
Attack on Titan (TV Series 2013–2023)
Beyond the Door of No Return by David Diop
The Strong Brown God: The Story of the Niger River by Sanche de Gramont
This episode was recorded on November 5th 2025
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This week, Mark Leonard returns to the World in 30 Minutes to unpack the latest development in US foreign policy: America’s military buildup off the coast of Venezuela. The US has deployed troops in the Caribbean and an aircraft strike group has joined the operation—but the Trump administration’s aims in the region remain unclear.
Mark is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director and head of its Washington office, to discuss the legal and political justifications for the strikes, the influence of Marco Rubio, and how Trump’s “hemispheric defence” doctrine fits into his unpredictable foreign policy. Is the development about drug cartels, regime change—or is America reasserting its power in the Western hemisphere? What are the implications for Europe? And what do these strikes mean for the future of US global strategy?
Bookshelf:
The Undiscovered Country: Triumph, Tragedy, and the Shaping of the American West by Paul Andrew Hutton
This episode was recorded on October 28th 2025.
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Donald Trump’s efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine have largely taken a backseat to events in Gaza. But a recent call with Vladimir Putin, followed by a tense meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, has reignited America’s engagement. Washington has announced new sanctions against two Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, just as European leaders advance plans to tap frozen Russian assets.
This week, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR research director and head of its Washington office, is joined by Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme and former foreign policy adviser to Slovak president Zuzana Čaputová, and Jim O’Brien, former assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs in the Biden administration and an ECFR distinguished visiting fellow. Together, they unpack Trump’s sanctions gamble, Europe’s shifting strategy on Russian energy—and whether these moves could alter the course of the war.
Bookshelf section:
The Tech Coup: How to Save Democracy from Silicon Valley by Marietje Schaake
This episode was recorded on October 23rd 2025.
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Eran Etzion, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, and Jamal Nusseibeh, Palestinian legal scholar and political analyst, to discuss what comes next after a landmark ceasefire in Gaza. Two years after the attacks on October 7th, the agreement has brought hostages home and Israeli forces have pulled back from parts of the Gaza Strip. But, with Trump’s 20-point plan calling for Hamas disarmament, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the establishment of a transitional Palestinian government, the real test is about to begin.
Can international pressure turn a vague, unsigned proposal into a lasting settlement? How can an international stabilisation force navigate between security guarantees for Israel and Palestinian sovereignty? And does this moment mark the start of a serious push for a two-state solution, or is it just another fragile pause in a cycle of violence?
This podcast was recorded on Friday, October 17th, 2025.
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EU enlargement is back at the top of the EU’s political agenda as Russia’s war against Ukraine has transformed it from a bureaucratic process into a matter of European security.
This episode marks the launch of ECFR’s new RE-ENGAGE podcast series: The Neighbourhood, which will unpack how countries hoping to join the EU navigate political change and outside pressure, and what that means for Europe’s democracy and security.
In this episode, Mark Leonard speaks with Lykke Friis, co-chair of ECFR’s council, director of the Danish think-tank Europa, and former Danish minister, as European leaders gather for the European Political Community summit in Copenhagen. Together they discuss why Denmark has shifted to advocating for enlargement and why Europe’s future security may depend on bringing Ukraine and Moldova closer.
Is the EU ready for a new wave of member countries? Can enlargement be both geopolitical and merit-based? And what role will Denmark play in defining the EU’s next chapter?
Bookshelf:
Strength in members: How to rally EU enlargement for defence by Gustav Gressel, Nicu Popescu
Deutschland 1946: Das Wunder beginnt by Rüdiger Barth, Hauke Friederichs
Indignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi
This episode was recorded on October 2nd, 2025.
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This week Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Paris office, to discuss the unprecedented political turmoil in France. Just weeks after his appointment, Sébastien Lecornu became the fourth prime minister to resign in a year—leaving Macron to choose between naming yet another leader, dissolving the National Assembly, or answering the mounting calls for his resignation.
Why is Macron refusing to turn to the left? Can the centrists hold together? And are snap elections or Macron’s resignation now inevitable?
This podcast was recorded on October 9th, 2025.
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Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to unpack Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza and what it means for Israel, Hamas, and Europe.
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Hugh Lovatt, Senior Policy Fellow at ECFR and expert on Israel–Palestine, to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of Trump’s proposed Gaza peace deal.
What does the plan actually contain, and how did it come about? Can it deliver a real ceasefire and political pathway, or is it another exercise in ambiguity? Hugh explains why the deal may be more complicated for Hamas than for Israel, what leverage Europeans still hold, and how an international stabilisation force could (or couldn’t) work on the ground.
This podcast was recorded on September 6th 2025
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In the United States, the political right is undergoing a significant transformation. Once dominated by Reagan economics—characterised by free trade and deregulation—the movement has increasingly adopted policies focusing on the working class, opposing globalisation, pursuing protectionism and imposing tariffs on foreign trade. At the heart of this shift is Oren Cass, chief economist at the American Compass think-tank and author of The Once and Future Worker.
This week, Mark Leonard talks with Cass about his intellectual journey, the differences between the “New Right” and traditional conservatives and the economic agenda reshaping American conservatism. Together, they discuss what a pro-worker trade policy can look like and why family is central to Cass’s political vision.
What does this new conservatism mean for US domestic and foreign policy? How does the conservative working class policy differ from Bernie Sanders’s vision? And how do these intellectual debates shape Trump’s administration?
This episode was recorded on September 24th 2025
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Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree and Suhasini Haidar to explore India’s foreign policy and its emerging relations with Europe.
For decades, India-Europe relations did not fulfil their potential. Now transactional American foreign policy has seen Donald Trump impose severe tariffs on India and push New Delhi to adopt a strategy of multi-alignment. This allows the EU to deepen their own economic and diplomatic relations with India.
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by James Crabtree, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and author of Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world, and Suhasini Haidar, diplomatic editor at The Hindu. Together, they examine how India’s changing foreign policy sees it balancing its position between China, Russia and the US, while discovering new opportunities in Europe.
Why does Europe’s changing geopolitical role appeal to New Delhi? What is the current state of Indo-Chinese relations? Why is non-alignment and multi-alignment crucial in understanding India’s foreign policy? And are India-US relations wrecked for the foreseeable future?
This episode was recorded on September 24th 2025.
Booskhelf:
Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department by Dean Acheson
India’s World: How Prime Ministers Shaped Foreign Policy by Rajiv Dogra
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world by James Crabtree
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Mark Leonard is joined by Ulrike Franke, ECFR senior policy fellow, for an Emergency Room podcast. Together, they unpack the recent wave of drone incursions across European airspace in Poland, Romania and Denmark, and discuss what these hybrid threats reveal about Russian tactics and NATO’s readiness.
How serious are these drone sightings and what are their origins? What kind of counter-drone defences should Europe be investing in? Why did Poland only shoot down some drones, and what does this signal to Moscow? And if Putin is probing NATO’s red lines, what might his next move be?
This episode was recorded on September 25th, 2025
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