Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update
Megan Horneman
292 episodes
1 week ago
As we wrap up the year, we’re trading headlines for holiday wishes. 🎄 In this special year-end episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman shares her “12 Days of Christmas” market wish list for 2026. It's a mix of realistic hopes, long shots, and conversation-starting ideas you can take straight to the holiday dinner table. From interest rates and inflation to global markets, housing, earnings growth, and government policy, this episode walks through what could shape the year ahead, and why...
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As we wrap up the year, we’re trading headlines for holiday wishes. 🎄 In this special year-end episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman shares her “12 Days of Christmas” market wish list for 2026. It's a mix of realistic hopes, long shots, and conversation-starting ideas you can take straight to the holiday dinner table. From interest rates and inflation to global markets, housing, earnings growth, and government policy, this episode walks through what could shape the year ahead, and why...
As we wrap up the year, we’re trading headlines for holiday wishes. 🎄 In this special year-end episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman shares her “12 Days of Christmas” market wish list for 2026. It's a mix of realistic hopes, long shots, and conversation-starting ideas you can take straight to the holiday dinner table. From interest rates and inflation to global markets, housing, earnings growth, and government policy, this episode walks through what could shape the year ahead, and why...
Inflation finally delivered some encouraging signals — but the details matter. Megan Horneman breaks down the November CPI report, which showed inflation continuing to cool on a year-over-year basis, even as data disruptions and missing monthly readings complicate the picture. Headline CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, while core inflation came in at 2.6%. Food prices, energy services, shelter, and medical services all remain elevated, reminding investors that sticky inflation pressures haven’t...
Why does Fed Structure Matter More Than Headlines? In this special edition of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, explains the structure of the Federal Reserve and the role of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the group responsible for voting on U.S. monetary policy. Learn how rotating FOMC voting members, a potentially new Fed Chair in 2026, and the balance between “hawks” and “doves” influence policy debates and market reactions...
We unpack October retail sales: a flat headline hides a stronger 0.8% rise in core spending while restaurants and autos slip. We explain what a tepid consumer means for Q4 growth, markets, and the odds of early Fed rate cuts and tax relief next year. • government data returns and date context • headline retail sales flat at 0.0% • gas, health and personal care, and building materials decline • core control group rises 0.8%, strongest since June • autos weaken after EV credit roll-off • resta...
A cooling jobs market doesn’t always scream crisis. Sometimes it whispers caution. We unpack why October turned negative, how November’s modest gain still dragged the 12‑month job count to its slowest since March 2021, and what a 4.6 percent unemployment rate signals about momentum heading into the new year. Our goal: make sense of the labor data flood and translate it into clear implications for families, employers, and investors. We break down where the cracks and strengths are forming. Co...
Today, the Federal Reserve delivered the widely expected rate cut, but it wasn’t the smooth, unified decision markets hoped for. In fact, it was the most divided Fed vote since 2019, with three dissenters split on whether to cut more, or not cut at all. In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down: ✔️ Why the Fed cut rates today ✔️ Why three members dissented and what it signals ✔️ Why this was considered a hawkish rate cut ✔️ The Fed’s updated forecasts for GDP, inflat...
Today’s labor market data gave the Fed a mixed message, and that makes their job even harder ahead of tomorrow’s policy meeting. Megan breaks down the conflicting signals in the latest JOLTS job openings, NFIB small business hiring plans, layoffs, and quits rates, plus what it all means for interest rates and market performance. Job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.7 million, the highest since January, signaling renewed labor-market tightness. Yet layoffs hit their highest level since early 2...
Cooling inflation and softer consumer expectations set the stage for a likely Fed rate cut while equities test, then retreat from, record highs. Listen in to why core PCE matters, how expectations shape spending, and what the Fed’s statement could mean for markets next week: • Core PCE slows to 2.8% year over year • Consumer inflation expectations ease across one and five-to-ten years • Sentiment lifts as purchasing power stabilizes • Futures price a 95% chance of a 25 bps cut • Equity marke...
The government is finally back on schedule with releasing economic data — and the first report of the month delivered a surprise. The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.2, signaling another month of contraction for the sector. Megan Horneman breaks down what’s driving the weakness and what it means for GDP, employment, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. Megan explains why new orders, order backlogs, and delivery times are signaling slower activity, why the employment component fell to it...
Another month, another impressive market turnaround, but is the momentum here to stay? In today’s episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the latest economic data to explain what’s driving the rally, how conditions have shifted since the spring, and whether investors should trust this strength going into year-end. Megan covers the key indicators showing improvement, the areas still flashing caution, and what the Federal Reserve and inflation trends may mean for the next leg...
Happy Thanksgiving from Markets with Megan! 🦃 Today, Megan Horneman shares fun, surprising, and meaningful economic insights you can bring to your holiday table, from falling turkey prices to the global equity rally that continues to break record after record. You’ll learn: 🍗 Why the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is actually down 5% this year 📉 How supermarkets helped push turkey prices lower 📈 What we’re thankful for in the markets — including diversification, international outperformance, a...
The latest housing market data is in and the signals are anything but clear. In today’s episode, Megan Horneman breaks down the mixed messages coming from home sales, inventory levels, and mortgage rates. Are consumers finally pulling back? Are higher interest rates starting to bite? And what does this mean for markets as we head into the end of the year? Megan explains what the data really means for buyers, sellers, and investors, and why the housing sector may be more vulnerable than it a...
Consumer confidence weakens even as lagging retail sales look resilient, pointing to a softer holiday season and rising expectations for a December rate cut. We connect the drop in expectations, a softer jobs signal, and why equities still rallied on policy hopes. • November consumer confidence weakens versus expectations • Expectations component hits lowest level since 2013 ex-April drop • Inflation expectations stable but elevated at 4.8 percent • Jobs plentiful minus hard to get index dec...
The consumer mood just blinked. We dig into fresh September retail sales and find the signal beneath the noise: core retail sales slipped, the steepest monthly drop since April, and the softness is concentrated in discretionary goods. Autos, electronics, clothing, sporting goods, and even non-store retail retreated, while health and personal care inched higher and restaurants kept humming. That split paints a clear picture of priorities shifting from goods to experiences, with essentials hold...
The September jobs report finally arrived after weeks of private data during the U.S. government shutdown, and it delivered a meaningful surprise. The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs, far above expectations, even as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021. In this episode of Markets with Megan, we break down what the mixed labor picture means for the Federal Reserve, inflation, and market momentum heading into the December FOMC meeting. Find out... • Where job gains ...
Fear has a way of compressing lofty stories into hard numbers, and that’s exactly what’s playing out across U.S. markets. We open with a clean read on why volatility jumped to levels last seen around April’s tariff shock, then connect the dots between stretched forward P/Es, softening consumer trends, and a Federal Reserve that can’t quite agree on timing for rate cuts. It’s a live stress test of equity risk premia, and the results aren’t evenly distributed. We break down the five forces pus...
Washington is back open, and the market’s attention snaps from headlines to hard numbers. We walk through what the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown historically means for the dollar, the S&P 500, and growth, then test those patterns against today’s mixed signals. You’ll hear why equities often hold up during political dysfunction, how reopenings can spark a modest relief bid, and where this cycle may differ after a 2% S&P climb during the closure. From there, we focus on t...
The October ISM Services index is back in expansion territory—coming in above 50—with six out of ten categories rising and new orders leading the charge (likely boosted by data-center demand in the commentary). Business activity jumped, employment is still in contraction but improved, and we’re not seeing shrinking headcount alongside a backlog—hinting at some labor-market equilibrium. The catch: prices paid just moved to their highest level since October 2022. That’s the inflation channel th...
We unpack October’s ADP payroll report during the record government shutdown and parse where hiring is actually happening. Large firms added jobs while small and mid-sized businesses shed workers, with most gains tied to services and AI-driven spending. • October ADP report shows 42,000 private payroll gain • Caution that one month does not set a trend • Hiring concentrated in large employers, 500 plus • Small businesses shed jobs in five of the last six months • Service-producing sectors le...
Factories are feeling the squeeze, but one surprising shift may be a quiet win for anyone watching inflation. We dig into October’s ISM manufacturing report at a time when the government shutdown has muted official data, and we pull out the signals that matter: a weaker headline driven by softness in production and inventories, a prices paid index that fell to its lowest level of the year, and export orders that show a pulse even as supply frictions re-emerge. We talk through what a drop in ...
Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update
As we wrap up the year, we’re trading headlines for holiday wishes. 🎄 In this special year-end episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman shares her “12 Days of Christmas” market wish list for 2026. It's a mix of realistic hopes, long shots, and conversation-starting ideas you can take straight to the holiday dinner table. From interest rates and inflation to global markets, housing, earnings growth, and government policy, this episode walks through what could shape the year ahead, and why...
