Source: Fellmann, T., Tassinari, G., Lasarte Lopez, J., Rey Vicario, D., Beber, C. et al., Scenar 2040 – A scenario study on the Common Agricultural Policy, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/7381366

Welcome to the weekend read: The Future of Your Food: How Policy Choices Shape EU Farming, Prices, and the Environment to 2040. Have you ever wondered what would happen if Europe’s massive, decades-old farming system suddenly disappeared? That question is at the heart of the comprehensive analysis we’re diving into today: the Joint Research Centre’s extensive "Scenar 2040" study.

This document, commissioned to inform future policy, takes us on a fascinating—and sometimes alarming—trip to the year 2040, simulating how dramatic shifts in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could reshape the continent's agriculture. To truly understand the gravity of the policy choices ahead, the study first modeled the counterfactual: the complete removal of the CAP framework, known as the NoCAP scenario.

The results confirm that eliminating this policy—which currently manages an average annual budget of approximately €61 billion—would trigger profound and highly unequal economic, environmental, and social transformations across the EU. This extreme "what if" scenario serves as a vital benchmark, underscoring the CAP's essential role in anchoring the EU agricultural landscape.

The core dilemma, however, lies in the critical structural trade-offs revealed by the two main simulated policy paths. On one side is the "Productivity and Investment" scenario, which directs CAP support toward enhancing yields and competitiveness, generally leading to production expansion, lower domestic prices, and stronger global market standing.

Yet, this pursuit of high output risks increasing environmental pressures within the EU, potentially raising total agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen surpluses. The opposing path, the "Environment and Climate" scenario, prioritizes environmental sustainability and climate-focused interventions.

While successful in reducing EU nitrogen surpluses and GHG emissions, this shift often results in lower farm productivity, leading to production declines and subsequently higher prices for consumers.

Crucially, the environmental benefits achieved within the EU in this scenario come with a major catch: if EU production shrinks, non-EU countries increase their output to fill the demand, often resulting in substantial emission leakage and a net increase in global agriculture GHG emissions.

These contrasting outcomes highlight the complexity of balancing local viability and global sustainability within the constraints of fundamental market realities like trade and demand.