Today's November 18, 2025 . The most immediate challenge facing European leaders is securing financing for Ukraine before the final European Council summit of 2025 on December 18th. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that the stakes are extremely high, urging capitals to agree on a commitment to ensure Ukraine does not run out of money midway through next year, thereby denying Russia the "hope of victory".
The primary debate centers on the thorniest proposal: underwriting a reparations loan using a colossal €140 billion of frozen Russian assets. This plan faces significant resistance, particularly from Belgium, which hosts the vast majority of these funds and fears litigation or retaliation from Moscow, insisting the EU must equally share the risks.
Meanwhile, internal coalition pressure is rising in Germany, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz is battling a rebellion from his own center-right allies over pension reform plans that younger lawmakers argue are not generationally fair. While there are signs of possible de-escalation, members of the "Junge Gruppe" insist that "substantive changes" to the draft law are necessary before they will agree to it.
As Europe contends with these financial and political fissures, key developments are unfolding globally and in the UK. The U.K. Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has unveiled a tough new asylum crackdown designed to tackle illegal migration, reforms which include steps aimed at "reprioritizing" the return of entire refugee families to safe countries and overhauling the asylum appeal process.
Mahmood’s allies are banking on the fact that this move aligns with the public mood, despite facing predicted parliamentary trouble from within her own party. Internationally, attention is focused on the Middle East, as the U.N. Security Council recently approved the U.S. plan for an international peacekeeping force in Gaza, though the resolution was promptly rejected by Hamas.
In response to the complex defense and security landscape, the leaders of Germany, France, and the U.K. are meeting tonight in Berlin to discuss crucial topics including support for Ukraine, European security, and the Middle East.
Finally, providing a rare positive environmental headline, Denmark has set the most ambitious 2035 emissions-cutting target of any developed country, aiming for an 82 percent reduction below 1990 levels, an effort the Danish Climate Minister stated is necessary to send a "bold and clear signal" in current times.
This Monday morning is dominated by major financial and geopolitical flashpoints across Europe, starting with the resurgence of the "Frugal" coalition attempting to rein in the EU’s long-term budget.
This group—including countries like Austria, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands, alongside new participants France and Belgium—is campaigning to limit the size of the estimated €2 trillion Multi-Annual Financial Framework (MFF), arguing that the budget must be put "on a diet" and that nations must "spend better".
This renewed split over fiscal policy signals the start of what some diplomats believe will be the "hardest in EU history" budget negotiations.
Meanwhile, London is awash in political noise as the UK government unveils its headline-grabbing illegal immigration plans.
These controversial measures aim to provide bare minimum protection to meet international obligations, institute a two-decade wait for settlement, restrict appeals, and reverse "hesitancy" around deporting families and Syrians, drawing criticism from Labour MPs but serving the government's aim of looking like it is fighting on an issue voters care about.
Geopolitical maneuvering is equally urgent, centered on the war in Ukraine and diplomatic outreach to Russia and China. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Paris to meet with President Emmanuel Macron, where he has teased a potential "historic deal" on air defenses to bolster Kyiv’s aerial fighting capabilities.
Contradicting this line of support, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is urging the EU to establish a direct communication channel with Vladimir Putin, arguing that Brussels must avoid being cut out of negotiations and citing the constant nuclear risk.
On the domestic front, the German coalition government is grappling with a potentially coalition-threatening crisis, the Rentenstreit, over the pension package after Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit with the Junge Union ended in disagreement, complicating efforts to bring the legislation through the Bundestag.
Simultaneously, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has begun a key visit to Peking for finance talks, aiming to maintain dialogue with China despite growing international tensions, including concerns over Taiwan and new China-tariffs.
Source: Fellmann, T., Tassinari, G., Lasarte Lopez, J., Rey Vicario, D., Beber, C. et al., Scenar 2040 – A scenario study on the Common Agricultural Policy, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/7381366
Welcome to the weekend read: The Future of Your Food: How Policy Choices Shape EU Farming, Prices, and the Environment to 2040. Have you ever wondered what would happen if Europe’s massive, decades-old farming system suddenly disappeared? That question is at the heart of the comprehensive analysis we’re diving into today: the Joint Research Centre’s extensive "Scenar 2040" study.
This document, commissioned to inform future policy, takes us on a fascinating—and sometimes alarming—trip to the year 2040, simulating how dramatic shifts in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could reshape the continent's agriculture. To truly understand the gravity of the policy choices ahead, the study first modeled the counterfactual: the complete removal of the CAP framework, known as the NoCAP scenario.
The results confirm that eliminating this policy—which currently manages an average annual budget of approximately €61 billion—would trigger profound and highly unequal economic, environmental, and social transformations across the EU. This extreme "what if" scenario serves as a vital benchmark, underscoring the CAP's essential role in anchoring the EU agricultural landscape.
The core dilemma, however, lies in the critical structural trade-offs revealed by the two main simulated policy paths. On one side is the "Productivity and Investment" scenario, which directs CAP support toward enhancing yields and competitiveness, generally leading to production expansion, lower domestic prices, and stronger global market standing.
Yet, this pursuit of high output risks increasing environmental pressures within the EU, potentially raising total agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen surpluses. The opposing path, the "Environment and Climate" scenario, prioritizes environmental sustainability and climate-focused interventions.
While successful in reducing EU nitrogen surpluses and GHG emissions, this shift often results in lower farm productivity, leading to production declines and subsequently higher prices for consumers.
Crucially, the environmental benefits achieved within the EU in this scenario come with a major catch: if EU production shrinks, non-EU countries increase their output to fill the demand, often resulting in substantial emission leakage and a net increase in global agriculture GHG emissions.
These contrasting outcomes highlight the complexity of balancing local viability and global sustainability within the constraints of fundamental market realities like trade and demand.
Today's November 14, 2025. A massive IPSOS poll result points to about half of voters in nine EU countries dissatisfied with the way democracy is working.
Anxiety is especially acute in France, where a staggering 86 percent of voters expressed worry about the future of democracy over the next five years, prompting discussions about the rise of extremism and the lack of accountability among political leaders.
Against this backdrop of popular disquiet, the European political landscape saw a seismic shift as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP)—the largest group in the European Parliament—formally broke the cordon sanitaire.
This informal pact, which had historically kept the far-right out of decision-making, was shattered when the EPP joined forces with the Patriots for Europe group to pass cuts to a major green regulation package, a move hailed by far-right leader Jordan Bardella as a "historic victory" and the dawning of a "new era".
Internationally, the crisis consuming Kyiv continues to deepen as Ukraine reels from the biggest corruption probe of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tenure, involving allegations that associates skimmed around $100 million from the energy sector.
Top presidential aide pushed back against the corruption criticism, affirming that Zelenskyy is a “very principled person” and “not corrupt,” emphasizing that the president initiated the fight against corruption himself.
Meanwhile, high-stakes political maneuvering dominated domestic policy in London and Berlin.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves reversed course on a highly anticipated income tax hike, claiming better-than-expected economic forecasts negated the need for the controversial measure.
However, this U-turn was widely interpreted by critics and Labour MPs as "bottling" a bold decision, a move that immediately unsettled bond markets and led to accusations that the leadership was prioritizing "short-term survival before national interest".
Finally, Germany announced a major move toward digital sovereignty, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz stating that Chinese suppliers like Huawei would be excluded from the country's future 6G network for security reasons.
Today's, November 13, 2025. The most immediate concern is the potential collapse of the central political firewall, as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) prepares to team up with far-right groups to push through significant cuts to green reporting requirements for businesses.
This collaboration could cement the EPP’s role as the Parliament's power-broker, swinging right on green rules while still relying on centrists for other priorities, such as the 2040 climate target.
Meanwhile, leaders are struggling to address the financial and political fallout from the $100 million corruption scandal revealed in Ukraine's energy sector, which has already led to ministerial resignations in Kyiv.
This toxic development comes as EU finance ministers meet to discuss advancing the crucial €140 billion reparations loan for Ukraine, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly calling on President Zelenskyy to "sort out Kyiv’s corruption problems".
Adding to the tense European environment, Germany has also reached a domestic compromise to institute a mechanism for "emergency conscription," requiring all 18-year-old men to undergo a military medical exam starting in 2027.
Across the Channel, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been forced to address a highly scrutinized "briefing-gate" row after alleged attacks on the Health Secretary were leaked to the press. Although Downing Street staff insisted the briefings did not come from No. 10, Starmer read his team the "riot act," clarifying he would fire anyone caught slagging off ministers.
This political skirmish has overshadowed the government’s major announcements regarding mini-nuclear plants and AI growth zones.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Washington saw some relief as President Donald Trump signed legislation overnight to successfully end the 43-day government shutdown.
Finally, amidst the political chaos, the European Parliament is also moving forward with social reforms, expected to pass a measure today allowing pregnant and new-mother MEPs to use proxy voting, while also voting on a groundbreaking report aimed at defining and countering the threat of transnational repression on European soil.
November 12, 2025. In London, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a significant leadership crisis dubbed "Keir and present danger". Allies of the prime minister have brought weeks of speculation into the open by briefing that he expects a leadership challenge and intends to fight it.
This internal turmoil has been described as "Keir and loathing in downing street". The immediate political danger is highlighted by claims that Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is publicly denying plotting, has up to 50 frontbenchers willing to resign if the budget goes poorly and Starmer remains. Additionally, a key decision looms regarding the "D-day for the two-child cap?", as the government's child poverty task force meets to draw up plans for scrapping the welfare cap.
In Germany, the pension issue is intensifying, becoming a definitive "power struggle" (Die Rente wird für Merz zur Machtfrage) for Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The coalition faces resistance, particularly from the Junge Gruppe, who oppose the 120-billion-euro pension package proposed by Bärbel Bas. Meanwhile, Berlin celebrates "70 years of Bundeswehr" (70 Jahre Bundeswehr) with a solemn ceremony involving around 280 recruits. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt also revealed a "hot lead on drone origin" (Heiße Spur zur Herkunft der Drohnen?), suggesting that the sightings might originate from Russia’s shadow fleet.
In France, the headline "vote to postpone" (Voter décaler) refers to the critical vote in the National Assembly on the social security budget (Budget de la Sécu). This measure specifically involves suspending or delaying the application of the 2023 retirement reform, an action the government took to secure support and avoid a vote of no confidence from the Socialists.
In Brussels, migration is the "driving the day" topic, after the Commission released a sensitive migration package, known as the "commission’s stealth migration drop", on a bank holiday. The package includes the first annual report on migration and decisions about which EU countries are classified as facing acute or future migratory pressure, determining eligibility for the Solidarity Pool. Furthermore, there is "crunch time for the firewall" (Crunchtime für die Brandmauer) as the European Parliament votes on a bureaucrat reduction omnibus, potentially testing the EPP’s willingness to seek majorities with factions further to the right.
Finally, the "ECB succession" race is underway, with eurozone finance ministers meeting to begin discussions on filling the European Central Bank Vice President role, marking the start of a major leadership reshuffle.
Today, November 11, 2025, Europe observes Armistice Day, a moment of remembrance contrasted sharply with the escalating political and security crises gripping the continent.
In Brussels, the war in Ukraine remains the driving force, as Kyiv's ambassador warns that Europe's peace and security are being safeguarded by Ukrainian courage, demanding that the EU remain united and provide necessary resources.
We analyze the European plan to "frontload" Ukraine's practical reforms for EU membership, a strategy designed to move ahead without waiting for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's required unanimous approval. This diplomatic gambit is set to culminate at a critical informal summit in Lviv on December 10th.
As leaders debate how to secure the continent, European People's Party chief Manfred Weber warns that Europe is "alone and naked in a world full of storms," emphasizing that "now is the time to say a clear yes to a common European defense".
Meanwhile, in London, a high-stakes transatlantic spat has plunged the BBC into a severe leadership crisis. The fallout stems from a botched 2024 edit of a Donald Trump speech, prompting the U.S. President to threaten to sue the state broadcaster for over $1 billion in defamation.
This comes as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen navigates internal EU institutional disputes, having secured a deal on the €2 trillion long-term budget that grants the European Parliament unprecedented leverage.
In Berlin, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is celebrating his 70th birthday, but he is urged by allies to gain more control over the communicative discipline of his cabinet as the German coalition struggles to move from conflict to "work mode" amidst critical budget negotiations.
Across Europe, from the complex politics of French pension reform to the struggles of funding military recruitment, it is a day defined by high political tension and existential choices.
Welcome to The Instability Index, your deep dive into the political turbulence across Europe on November 10, 2025, where institutional failures and domestic rebellions define the start of the week.
London is reeling from a massive institutional crisis, marked by the double resignations of BBC Director General Tim Davie and BBC News CEO Deborah Turness, an outcome that opened a "political hornet's nest" and left existential questions hanging over the state broadcaster's future. Their departures followed days of pressure and accusations of bias stemming from a scathing leaked memo about the corporation's output, an event referred to as the "Panorama debacle".
Meanwhile, in Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (VDL) is attempting a political "climbdown" to defuse a major spat over the long-term EU budget (MFF). VDL is offering compromise proposals to the European Parliament, which MEPs are using to gain leverage, leveraging the fact that VDL's own majority has become increasingly "fragil" (fragile).
The political stakes are equally high in Paris and Berlin, where high-profile legal and legislative battles are underway. Today, all eyes are on the correctional appeals chamber in Paris, which is examining former President Nicolas Sarkozy's request for release from prison, having been condemned on September 25 to five years for association of malefactors in the Libyan affair.
Domestically in France, an exclusive poll on the upcoming municipal elections in Marseille has caused significant commotion, placing the National Rally (RN) candidate, Franck Allisio, at "equality" with the sitting mayor, Benoît Payan, in the first round. In Germany, Kanzler Merz faces a crucial week of reforms, including the Wehrdienst (defense mandate) and the Rente (pension) package.
Merz must navigate a tense situation where 18 members of the Young Group—dubbed the "Renten-Rebellen" (pension rebels)—have declared the current pension reform plans unacceptable, threatening the coalition's majority for the cabinet-approved reform. This clash sets the stage for a potential public confrontation between the Kanzler and the Young Union later this week.
Welcome to the Weekend Read.
Europe’s seas, covering more than 11 million km², are critical ecosystems that feed us, regulate our climate, and provide the majority of species found in Europe with habitats. However, these seas face rapid change due to human activities, including pollution, plastic waste, habitat loss, acidification, and warmer waters from climate change, all of which reduce marine biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. To counter these threats, EU-funded research, primarily under Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe, is focused on reducing and preventing drivers of marine biodiversity loss and offering solutions for a healthier future. This strategic response is guided by ambitious policies such as the EU Biodiversity Strategy and the Nature Restoration Law, adopted in June 2024, which aim to effectively protect 30% of the EU’s seas by 2030 and restore habitats that are not in good condition. The ultimate goal is to restore biodiversity for the benefit of people, climate, and the planet.
Achieving this resilient ocean future relies on cutting-edge science and innovative solutions. EU-funded projects are enhancing ocean governance by improving observation and forecasting systems, providing critical data for fisheries, tourism, and aquaculture. Technological innovations are tackling pollution at the source, such as the AMBI-ROBIC project developing a disruptive, net-zero carbon, and energy-efficient wastewater treatment using anaerobic digestion. Plastic waste is addressed via the ECOLACTIPACK project, which created CareTips®, a fully biodegradable, water-soluble natural polymer derived from dairy protein for plastic-free packaging, and via cleanup technologies like autonomous robots (SeaClear) that detect and collect litter from the seafloor, and bubble barriers (MAELSTROM) that prevent plastics from entering the sea via rivers. Additionally, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are being implemented through projects like FutureMARES and MaCoBioS to curb the effects of the climate emergency by restoring critical species like kelp and eelgrass, reviving native flat oysters for coastal sustainability, and constructing artificial dunes to mitigate coastal erosion. This holistic approach also involves integrating activities like sustainable aquaculture and tourism with offshore energy production through multi-use platforms, ensuring economic interests are balanced with environmental protection.
Source: Publications Office of the European Union, European Commission: European Research Executive Agency, CORDIS and Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, CORDIS results pack on marine biodiversity, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2830/9980277
Today's November 7, 2025, the global political focus is split between an urgent climate summit and deep domestic budget crises gripping major European capitals.
The UN Climate Summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, is a central, yet troubled, venue, marked by the absence of the United States after President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement and shifted foreign policy toward promoting American fossil fuels.
Against this backdrop, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is making his first appearance at a UN climate conference, though sources suggest he is heavily preoccupied with the "tense coalition climate" back home in Berlin and his many "Chancellor-problems".
Meanwhile, in Brussels, Commission officials are racing against a tight deadline to secure the unfreezing of €140 billion in Russian assets—a critical financial lifeline Ukraine needs by early next year.
This effort is running into a severe "Belgian political drama," as Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s government struggles to clinch a domestic budget deal involving €10 billion in spending cuts, and De Wever has warned that a 50-day extension granted for securing the deal, which expires on December 26, is a "maximum period".
Domestic political headaches are equally acute across France and the United Kingdom, dominated by contentious budget negotiations and internal party friction.
In Paris, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is engaged in delicate negotiations, aiming to find a point of "equilibrium" with the Senate to ensure France gets a budget without resorting to the constitutional provision of Article 49.3. Lecornu, described by senators as "clever" and "skillful," even met with Senate President Gérard Larcher to prepare for the budgetary debate.
However, the right and center majority in the Senate plan to significantly "unravel" the version passed by the Assembly, specifically targeting the reversal of €46 billion in tax increases before seeking a compromise in the joint mixed committee (CMP).
Across the English Channel, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer returns from Belém to face internal "angst" following reports that Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves has informed the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) of her intention to raise income tax.
This impending tax hike, seen as potentially breaking a manifesto promise, has fueled party splits, highlighted by Deputy Leader Lucy Powell’s public calls for the government not to break its pledges.
Simultaneously, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy continues to face "vicious briefing" from Cabinet ministers and MPs who criticized his "shockingly bad" or "cowardly" handling of a recent controversy involving the accidental release of prisoners.
Today, November 6, 2025. Brussels is openly grappling with a shifting power structure in the European Parliament where two working majorities are now acknowledged: one centrist (EPP, S&D, Renew) and one leaning rightward (EPP plus conservative and far-right groups).
This fragmentation is fueling speculation that the EPP’s Roberta Metsola may be preparing for a third term as Parliament President with right-wing support, possibly secured through a complex deal, dubbed the "Metsola-Costa ticket," where Socialists (S&D) would back her in exchange for keeping António Costa at the helm of the European Council.
This internal dynamic highlights a broader trend, as the political gravity for key files, especially concerning green policy, migration, and social issues, continues to pull rightward. Concurrently, the EU is taking decisive external action by preparing to tighten visa rules for Russian citizens, aiming to restrict movement by ending multi-entry Schengen permits in most cases as a further measure against Moscow for its war in Ukraine.
Major domestic and international challenges are dominating the headlines across Europe, notably centered around the high-stakes COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, where attendance features a host of leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer’s presence is notably brief and low-key, lacking a traveling press pack.
His visit is complicated by the Treasury’s refusal to contribute taxpayer money to the major new Tropical Forest Forever Fund, drawing sharp criticism regarding the U.K.'s green credentials. Compounding Starmer’s international difficulties is a major scandal at home, as his deputy faces intense scrutiny over a row involving the accidental release of prisoners. Meanwhile, Chancellor Merz is driving a domestic economic pivot, holding a crucial "Stahlgipfel" (steel summit) today to address trade concerns and signal a potential shift toward protective measures, including possible tariffs against Chinese steel dumping.
Lastly, in Paris, the debate over the 2026 budget has erupted into a "War of the Lefts" in the National Assembly, as the hard-left La France insoumise aligned with the far-right National Rally to reject Socialist proposals aimed at raising the CSG tax on capital revenues.
Welcome to the Meanwhile in Europe Podcast.
Today's November 5, 2025.
Dive in to the latest headlines you need to know about what's happening in Europe on this day politically.
Today's November 4th, 2025. It may seem like a slow news day, but the real scoops today are happening behind the scenes across europe. Join us today as we discuss the political news from Brussels, Paris, London and Berlin.
Today's November 3, 2025. We begin in Central Europe, where the fragile consensus on the EU’s Green agenda is facing an existential challenge, led by Czech politician Andrej Babiš who is expected to try and "block the ETS2" (Emissions Trading System for buildings and transport) legislation, arguing it would "take too much money away from households".
Babiš, who seeks a "restoration and strengthening of damaged relations within the Visegrád Group", is specifically looking to team up with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who successfully inserted a "revision clause" into the EU plans regarding ETS2.
This maneuvering underscores the critical dynamic where challenging policies—and risking institutional paralysis—is seen by some as necessary to force Brussels to heed national concerns, even as Babiš’s program rules out any referendum on EU membership.
Meanwhile, the fault lines are equally pronounced in Berlin and Paris. Germany’s conservative-led government is pressing ahead with efforts to expel Syrian migrants, with Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and Chancellor Friedrich Merz raising the issue with international partners.
This push is criticized by figures in the European Parliament who note there is "no long-term stability" necessary for safe returns, which risks the collapse of the "whole fragile system". Concurrently, French President Emmanuel Macron is undertaking a long-delayed trip "to take the pulse of the country", facing ministerial concern that he has "s’est coupé de sa base" and is "de plus en plus isolé".
These domestic pressures intersect with the EU’s biggest geopolitical tool: enlargement. As Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos prepares to unveil progress reports, the debate focuses on mitigating the risk of future "veto-happy Orbán copycats" through new accession methods, such as denying new members certain voting rights for a given "probation period".
Welcome to the Weekend Read on November 1, 2025. This episode explores why European Union (EU) law, which is made to be applied by its users, is often ineffective and difficult to follow, even for the citizens it is meant to serve.
A critical study, commissioned by the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Justice, Civil Liberties and Institutional Affairs at the request of the Committee on Legal Affairs (JURI), exposes the adverse effect of legislative complexity on the application of EU law. This complexity stems from several factors, including the growing length of legislative proposals, which under the current Commission have reached an average of 8,582 words, and the increasing number of technical provisions and EU acts.
For the fundamental users—EU citizens—this complexity means they do not understand and do not know the law, preventing them from fulfilling obligations or enjoying the rights it offers. The resulting inaccessibility of the law injures the rule of law and democracy in the EU, and creates far-reaching consequences, including hurdles to the trust and loyalty of EU citizens towards the EU as an ideal and an organization.
The core issue lies not just in the complex laws themselves, but in how their application is monitored. The European Commission’s current monitoring of EU law is criticized for being partial, formalistic, and ineffective, often relying on "box-ticking exercises" rather than substantive analysis of effectiveness. Crucially, the Commission’s monitoring is deficient and incomplete because it persistently ignores the parameter of legislative complexity.
Furthermore, simplification efforts focus almost exclusively on competitiveness and companies, actively excluding EU citizens and their understandability needs from the simplification agenda. The study advocates for a necessary reform of this monitoring process, requiring a shift to a qualitative, in-depth evaluation of complexity.
This reform must include scrutinizing EU Acts against a citizen-centred legislative style, using "easified language and the layered structure" to effectively communicate regulatory messages to all three legislative audiences: citizens, Member States, and institutions.
Source: European Parliament: Directorate-General for Citizens’ Rights, Justice and Institutional Affairs and Xanthaki, H., Legislative complexity and monitoring the application of EU law, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2861/4735769
Today's October 31, 2025.
In Brussels, President Ursula von der Leyen faces a "bloodcurdlingly busy agenda" before the year’s end. The most immediate threat is the "frightening standoff" with the U.S. over a massive trade deal, where the Trump administration is seeking regulatory carve-outs in a battle that carries "trillions of dollars at stake" and threatens to "blow up at any moment".
To tackle these rifts, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been invited for talks on November 24. Compounding the pressure, the EU’s monumental €2 trillion budget (MFF) has been "cast into the cauldron of uncertainty" after lawmakers, including those from von der Leyen’s own party, warned they would not accept the restructuring of agricultural and regional payments.
Amidst this high-level governmental stress, whispers are growing about the potential return of Martin Selmayr—famously dubbed the "Monster of the Berlaymont"—as he applies for a top diplomatic post under Kaja Kallas.
Across the continent, national leaders are dealing with their own political horrors. In the UK, King Charles delivered a "truly sensational move," initiating the process to strip his brother, Prince Andrew, of the title of prince and ordering him to leave the Royal Lodge, an action so rare it hasn't been seen since 1919.
This constitutional cacophony diverted attention from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who was forced to issue a second public apology after her ethics adviser confirmed she had "publicly misled the PM" regarding the licensing of her rental property.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is "feeling the strain" of navigating a divided coalition through choppy geopolitical waters, with internal conflicts escalating over his stance on the EU budget proposal.
And in Paris, deputies are deep in legislative "money time" on the 2026 finance bill, with negotiations centering on the introduction of the Zucman tax on high net worths to compensate for scrapping problematic budget measures, highlighting the intense domestic strain on governmental resources.
Today's October 30, 2025. And there's a significant political shockwave emanating from Europe, where the Dutch election delivered one of the most nail-biting nights in years, defying expectations of a far-right sweep.
Rob Jetten’s centrist D66 party is now locked in a dead heat with Geert Wilders' anti-migration Party for Freedom (PVV), with preliminary forecasts showing both parties holding 26 seats.
Crucially, D66’s charismatic leader, Rob Jetten, is expected to receive the first opportunity to form a government, positioning him as the likely next prime minister.
This result is seen by many in Brussels as a major victory for the political center and pro-European forces, especially as Jetten has articulated a vision for Europe to transform into a serious "democratic world power".
Conversely, Wilders' PVV, which won the popular vote and 37 seats in 2023, saw a significant drop to a projected 26 seats. This dramatic shift in the Netherlands plays out against a backdrop of escalating international tensions and acute policy crises elsewhere.
On the global stage, attention was fixed on the high-stakes summit in Busan, South Korea, between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping—a meeting Trump optimistically rated as a "12 out of 10". The talks yielded immediate de-escalation: Trump vowed to lower U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports from 57 percent to 47 percent, with China agreeing to curb fentanyl flow and postpone export restrictions on rare earths.
Yet, this diplomatic calm was undercut by a final, aggressive act of saber-rattling hours before the meeting, as Trump ordered the restarting of U.S. nuclear missile testing.
Adding to the chaotic news cycle, U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves offered a late-night apology for unlawfully renting out her family home, providing fresh political drama amid intense speculation that Treasury officials are modeling major tax hikes in the run-up to the budget.
Today's October 29, 2025. Today, we navigate a complex global landscape defined by diplomatic emergency and high-stakes electoral battles, with the central focus being the volatile convergence of conflict and peace talks in the Middle East.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is flying to Ankara this afternoon for a critical meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, where the primary agenda is Gaza peace preservation and reconstruction.
This mission, which aims to push Erdoğan toward enforcing the necessary disarmament of Hamas to potentially pave the way for a U.N.-mandated peacekeeping force, is imbued with extreme urgency due to events that unfolded just hours ago. Israeli strikes across Gaza overnight killed at least 100 people, including 35 children, according to local health officials.
Israel’s military defended the action, stating the strikes were a reaction to Hamas violating the fragile truce by attacking Israeli forces in Rafah. The gravity of the situation is reflected in the US response, where President Donald Trump stated he supported Israel’s right to "hit back" when its soldiers were killed, though he insisted that "nothing is going to jeopardize" the cease-fire.
Across Europe, the political future is being rewritten, starting with the Dutch general election today, described as a "nail-biting" contest. Polls show a tight race between Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV, Frans Timmermans’ GreenLeft-Labor party, and Rob Jetten’s liberal D66, with Jetten credited with a "sizzling rise" and a "real shot at the top job".
This election could potentially mark the end of the "experiment" of conservatives flirting with the far right. Simultaneously in Brussels, European Parliament is gearing up for a major budget revolt against Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The four main centrist groups are demanding she rework her plan for the EU’s next seven-year budget (MFF), specifically resisting the idea of creating "national plans" that would shift power away from regional authorities.
Failure to meet their conditions means they are threatening to reject a key part of the budget. Meanwhile, the UK is grappling with renewed tensions over migration and security following the fatal stabbing of a dog walker in west London, where the Afghan man being questioned had been granted asylum after entering the country illegally in 2020, an incident officials fear could trigger political unrest.
These domestic crises, combined with the trial starting today in Paris of four Bulgarians suspected of vandalizing a Holocaust memorial as part of suspected Russian efforts to destabilize France, underscore a profoundly turbulent moment in global affairs.
Today, October 28, 2025, we find Europe's two most powerful leaders—Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz—locked in remarkably similar political situations, struggling to balance a public projection of long-term stability against intensely divisive internal political battles.
In Paris, President Macron is consciously emerging from a period of relative "discretion" to reclaim his role on what his allies term "long-term, civilizational" issues ("sujets de temps long, civilisationnels"). His schedule today is dominated by presiding over meetings concerning the degradation of public debate, the regulation of social networks, and mental health.
This philosophical pivot is occurring precisely as the French government is "quasi à 100%" dedicated to the intricate 2026 budget negotiations, creating high tension where the threat of censure from Socialist groups looms large.
The symmetry is clear: Macron is trying to look past the immediate political grind to the grand sweep of history, even as the messy reality of budget survival pulls him back down.
A parallel dynamic is unfolding in Germany, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz is embarking on his inaugural visit to eastern Germany, starting in Saxony and Dresden today.
Merz's external tour, which focuses on infrastructure expansion and federal aid for rebuilding the Carolabrücke, aims to project unity and regional focus.
Yet, like Macron, his efforts are overshadowed by bitter political fissures back home. The Chancellor must navigate intense coalition splits on two major domestic files: the pension reform debate, concerning whether future increases should rise slightly less than wage development, and the renewed argument over military conscription (Wehrdienst), where a compromise still clings to the use of random selection ('Losverfahren') if volunteer numbers are insufficient.
This pattern—a leader projecting forward momentum or external engagement while simultaneously grappling with the threat of internal failure—is the defining narrative of the day, setting the tone for the continent as Brussels scrambles over the use of frozen Russian assets and London braces for a £21 billion economic blow.
Today's October 27, 2025. The European Commission is poised to propose a sweeping package of financial market reforms with the fundamental aim of creating a deeper EU financial market capable of rivaling that of the United States and China.
This grand strategy seeks to make more investment capital available to Europe’s industry and halt the concerning trend of successful startups relocating to the U.S. for better access to growth funding.
However, the proposed mechanism for achieving this integration—a significant "shake-up" of financial supervision—is "certain to be politically divisive" and is forecast to "set the stage for a bitter political fight with the bloc’s governments".
The main point of contention is the plan to shift supervision of various firms, including all crypto asset service providers, large cross-border stock exchanges, clearinghouses, and central securities depositories, to the EU central supervisor, ESMA.
This move toward centralization, championed by countries like France but long opposed and "largely blocked by national capitals" in the past, risks deepening political divisions across the continent.
Further complicating the internal landscape, a preview of the Rule of Law Index showed that over two-thirds of EU member countries declined in performance, with Slovakia and Hungary recording the sharpest drops.
The EU’s urgent need to support Ukraine remains a critical external challenge following a recent EUCO summit deadlock. After Belgium shot down plans to use frozen Russian assets as a financial lifeline for Kyiv, EU countries are being called upon to consider a "Plan B" involving the raising of tens of billions of euros in joint debt to keep Ukraine afloat.
A final decision on this path is needed no later than the EUCO summit in December. This scramble for financing occurs against a backdrop of heightened global tension: Europe looks on nervously as Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a meeting already preceded by news that Washington and Beijing have settled on a "framework" for a trade deal.
Meanwhile, while a two-week-old, Trump-inspired Gaza ceasefire has held, tensions remain high, and humanitarian aid delivery is insufficient to meet needs. Adding to the global security concerns, Russia claimed it had successfully tested its nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile.