The Inside Economics crew welcomes Alan Blinder back to the podcast. The Princeton University economics professor and former Vice Chair of the Fed offers his perspective on the outlook for artificial intelligence, the risk of a bubble in equity markets, and the potential implications of current threats to Fed independence. The team also breaks down the much-delayed September employment report.

The Inside Economics team records a rare Saturday podcast. They consider the fallout from the just-ended government shutdown on the broader economy and the economic data. It’s not good, but it ended just before it did serious damage. The team also takes up the Trump administration’s pivot to addressing affordability, including scaling back tariffs, most important for the group, those on pasta and bananas. And they introduce a new regular segment of the podcast – listener questions. So, keep them coming.

Mark, Cris and Marisa discuss the trajectory of the alternative labor market data on what is yet another “jobs” Friday with no official labor market data release. They discuss various outcomes around the federal government shutdown, how and when it may end, and what that means for the backlog of economic data releases. The trio concludes by answering several thought-provoking listener questions.

Fellow Moody's colleague Chris Lafakis joins Mark, Marisa, and Cris as they discuss current economic trends and Chris's recent study on the macroeconomic consequences of hurricanes. Mark starts the conversation by sharing his questions about the latest data on layoffs and how AI is influencing the economy. The team members share their different perspectives before shifting the discussion to the economic toll of Hurricane Melissa and how storms can affect regional economies.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, joins Inside Economics to discuss a bevy of topics, including today’s belated Consumer Price Index release, the lack of other government data, AI and the labor market, stock market valuations, and the risks to the economy that are top of mind for her. Mark teases a new esoteric vocabulary word but fails to reveal it…stay tuned.

Colleague Matt Colyar joins Cris and Mark on the podcast to discuss the prospects for inflation and the threat posed by subprime consumer credit problems to the banking system and broader economy. They discuss all of this through the prism of concerns raised by clients in their travels this past week: Mark was out West, Matt in Texas, and Cris in Bermuda.

Justin Begley and Brendan LaCerda join Inside Economics to discuss the federal government shutdown and its macroeconomic consequences. First, the crew discusses how the shutdown is preventing the release of federal economic statistics, and Justin runs through a bunch of private data sources that can be used to gauge the health of the labor market in the absence of the BLS reports. The conversation then turns to the shutdown itself. Brendan and Justin opine on when and how the stalemate might end and the macro consequences of an extended shutdown. Finally, the team breaks tradition with the stats game.

The Inside Economics team welcomes Lisa Simon, Chief Economist at Revelio Labs, for an unusual jobs Friday podcast as the ongoing government shutdown prevented the release of the September employment report. Lisa details the new public labor statistics data that Revelio Labs began publishing recently in the wake of turmoil at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The team discusses how private data sources can help fill in the gaps left by the temporary absence of government data and also dissects the current state of the labor market.

Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer joins the Inside Economics team to debate the health of the American consumer and the economy’s prospects. The team pushes hard on Michelle’s sanguine perspective, but she holds her ground—and then some. Listen in if you want a preview of the strength of holiday sales and what will power that growth.

Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss what she dubbed the K-Shaped Economy. She describes the reasons why the well-to-do are thriving and the bottom 80% of the income distribution is struggling to make ends meet. The team discusses the origins of this skewing in the income distribution and why we should care about it.

The Inside Economics team gets together in person at All Hands Day. It is a short podcast, with more than the typical amount of chit-chat (as we are in person). But it is an action-packed conversation on the Fed’s rate decision (see if we got it right), our proposal to unlock the housing market, and, of course, the statistics game!

Mark and Cris are joined by Matt Colyar to break down the latest CPI inflation report, while Jared Franz from the Capital Group explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping the American economy and labor market. We examine the opportunities and challenges of the AI revolution and what it means for workers, businesses, and investors in this rapidly changing economic landscape.

Dante joins the Inside Economics team to talk about the August employment report. After another set of weak numbers, Mark declares that the economy has entered a jobs recession. Cris and Marisa agree, but Dante would like to see more evidence. They also discuss how the lack of hiring is disproportionately impacting young workers. They wrap up by considering what it all means for the Fed, in light of a big jump in market expectations for more drastic rate cuts by the end of the year.

Mark, Cris, and Marisa talk about the increasingly shaky state of the economy after reviewing the week’s data. They preview next week’s jobs report and the likelihood of further downward revisions and negative payroll numbers. The trio then ponders some dark scenarios regarding Fed independence or lack thereof, and what that could mean for the growth and inflation outlooks.

From Fed Chair Powell’s confirmation of coming interest rate cuts to digital wallets, this episode dives deep into the evolving world of digital currencies with guest Ananya Kumar from the Atlantic Council. Whether you're managing your portfolio like co-host Crypto Cris or just trying to keep up with changing technologies, we’ve got you covered.

It was a week headlined by crucial inflation data. The Inside Economics crew is joined by colleague Matt Colyar to dig into July’s consumer price index. July’s CPI was unsurprising, but that doesn’t mean it was good. The group discusses why markets might have been too cheery about it and what they think inflation looks like in the coming months (see July’s producer price index). Finally, some loquacious responses to a handful of listener questions.

Former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen joins Mark, Cris, and Dante to cover a wide range of topics, including a somber discussion about the recent firing of the current BLS commissioner. Erica provides key insights into the role that BLS commissioners play in the day-to-day publication of economic data, as well as the longer-term challenges facing BLS and other federal statistical agencies. She also weighs in on the recent revisions to employment data that have garnered much attention and provides a thorough explanation of why revisions happen and the tradeoff between timeliness and accuracy.

The Inside Economics team turned lugubrious in this week’s episode. Given this week’s data dump showing that inflation is uncomfortably high and accelerating, and the job market and broader economy are struggling, it's hard not to be. They also consider what it all means for the Fed, which is in an increasingly difficult position, and prospects that the economy will fall off the narrow tight rope it is on, into recession.

The 2025 U.S. economy leaves no shortage of topics to explore. This week, the Inside Economics crew tries to touch them all. Mark and Cris, joined by Matt Colyar, discuss growing challenges to Fed independence, recent tariff agreements, financial market exuberance, and a U.S. housing market under significant stress. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and offers their latest recession probabilities and expectations for next week’s slew of important data.

Automotive economists Jonathan Smoke (Cox Automotive) and Michael Brisson (Moody's Analytics) join Mark and Cris to discuss industry conditions, tariff impacts on production and pricing, and their divergent views on auto credit's future. Inside Economics producer, Sara Rodriguez, makes a special guest appearance to settle the podcast's ongoing chit-chat debate.