In this episode I do two things...
First, I explain why the "unsure" camp in the currently divided Fianna Fáil parliamentary party is in single digits and the pro and anti Martin factions are almost evenly divided.
Second, I explain why a departure timeline for Martin that stretches into 2027 or 2028 not only makes no sense, it is potentially damaging to its electoral prospects.
The damage being done to the Keep Martin campaign... by the Keep Martin campaign... makes the Gavin presidential bid look masterful. Their line that any move requires a challenger is contrary to the rules that Martin introduced... rules meant to ensure there could never be a spill (i.e. heave).
As we look back at the Haughey era... though Maire Geoghegan Quinn never actually used this phrase back in 1991 (one year before Haughey's actual departure) her reference to the haughey era was seen a signal to the great man that his time was up.
Are we hearing some subtle hints of the "as we look back at the Martin era" today? I think we are.
Link to that EVERHAZE event pn Tuesday. Register now.
After today's The Week in Politics debate and the Sunday Independent poll numbers, I take a very quick look at the evolving Irish presidential election and conclude (once again) that it will be hugely consequential for the leaderships of Fianna Fáil... and possibly Fine Gael.
Two links:
2. To Cathal Lee interview on Shannonside
With Fianna Fáil picking its Aras candidate in 2 days time, Derek looks at how the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party may be about to re-exert its authority by refusing to declare a winner before its votes in secret. The title for this episode from from an old Michael Heseltine anecdote.... it doesn't matter who you say you're voting for.... just so long as you vote for me.
In this episode I discuss the evolving political manoeuvres ahead of the 2025 presidential race. Internal Fine Gael turmoil after the withdrawal of Mairead McGuinness should be a boon for Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil, but their continuing silence limits competition. The field is unlikely to go beyond four contenders... five at most.
This is the podcast to go with my 9th annual political reading list (See list online) As the name suggests, the books on the list have a political theme or connection, be it Irish, European or global.
This podcast differs slightly from the original online list as I omitted Prof Donnacha Ó Beacháin's "Unfinished Empire" the story of how Putin clings to Russia’s imperial legacy, particularly in Ukraine.
The other books remain the same.
Feel free to leave your thoughts and feedback below.
In this episode I look again at the prospects for the presidential election and conclude that both the contest poses equal problems for the two biggest parties: Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil.
I also dispel the notion that Taoiseach Micheál Martin is considering a run... he means what he says when he says he does not want to run... as Sigmund Freud never said... sometimes a cigar is just a cigar!!
I also look briefly at what the college fees row tells us about government incoherence... and the capacity of Tánaiste Simon Harris to bring this government to an untimely end.
In this episode I consider how Northern Ireland and the changes to the triple lock may become issues at the upcoming Irish presidential election.
I examine the evolving shifts in Micheál Martin's thinking on Irish unity and his preference for engagement with lapsed nationalists, over unionists and northern nationalists.
I set out my problems with the government's proposed reforms of the Triple Lock on Irish Defence deployment... and with the opposition's response.
I also explore how the presidential race could influence broader government stability.
In this short episode I use an excellent Twitter thread from U.S. Democrat Senator, Chris Murphy of Connecticut to thrash President Trump's tariff tactic. As Senator Murphy correctly highlights: They aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool. Once seen through this lense, the approach makes some sense... but remains every bit as dangerous and damaging.
Note that I use an AI text to voice model for Sen Murphy's tweets.
In this episode I manage to link quotes from my late mentor Ben Briscoe and the great Lenny Bruce to lead me to a point where the Dáil speaking time and Garron Noone debacles meet... and leave me less than impressed.
In this podcast episode I discuss Taoiseach Micheál Martin's upcoming White House visit, addressing potential challenges such as US demands for Apple's tax money and pressure to buy American military equipment.
I don't offer advice, as it is not needed. An Taoiseach, and his diplomatic team, know how to deploy diplomatic caution and avoid public confrontations with the Trump administration. They just need to watch out for VP Vance.
In this episode I critique both the government and opposition tactics in the Dáil speaking row, with each arguing that they should be able to play all across the pitch with the other side confined to their own half.
Meanwhile Fine Gael's leadership issues is impacting government stability and messaging. So if FG TDs plan to dump Harris (and I think they do) then better to do it now.
In this "Mooney on Politics" podcast, I reflect on Ireland's planned defence investments, saying "I told you so!"
I again critique past neglect while acknowledging the signs of progress... but above all I stress the need to boost defence capacity, irrespective of neutrality debates.
In this episode I chat with Colum Eastwood MP, about the work his New Ireland Commission is doing to drive planning for a new and united Ireland. We delve into the Commission's strategies for engaging with diverse communities, its approach to creating a more prosperous society for all.
Colum mentions (in passing) he is currently writing a book... one to look out for later this year.
In this more security policy focused episode I look at some of the potentially positive elements of the probable Programme for Government (PfG), specifically the justice/law and order ones, and the very definitely negative ones on the defence, particularly the absence of any timeline to fix the decade of neglect.
Rather than making predictions about what might happen in 2025, I flag some key issues that will arise in the year ahead. Two of which have a distinctively presidential tinge...
In this penultimate episode of 2024 I look at 3 recent domestic developments: the first day of the new Dáil, Israel closing its Irish embassy and the Soc Dem ex TD saga and suggest that each has an element of the paradoxical about it... and that paradoxes are (to cite Sr Gertrude via Muriel Spark) is something we must live with.
As the two main parties prepare for coalition talks, I offer Fianna Fáil some thoughts on how that government should be structured:
This is not so much a podcast, but just a rebroadcast of my comments on Times Radio (UK) from early this morning. Though based on the Exit poll which may have understated FF and overstated SF, the broad points remain correct.
It has been my view from the start of the campaign that voters did not feel there was a viable alternative on offer... and that's not healthy for our politics in the medium term... but what might that alternative look like?