Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

EXPLORE

Society & Culture

© 2024 PodJoint

https://is1-ssl.mzstatic.com/image/thumb/Podcasts221/v4/e9/8d/51/e98d517d-6c8d-8e7f-54cf-dc302038b2e4/mza_18324276811170568795.jpg/600x600bb.jpg

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

University of Arkansas, Cooperative Extension Service

73 episodes

3 days ago

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stocks and strong corn export demand, while rice and cotton prices softened under the weight of large supplies. The episode also touches on factors to watch heading into 2026 including global demand and how South American weather could shape markets over th...

Show more...

All content for Morning Coffee and Ag Markets is the property of University of Arkansas, Cooperative Extension Service and is served directly from their servers with no modification, redirects, or rehosting. The podcast is not affiliated with or endorsed by Podjoint in any way.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stocks and strong corn export demand, while rice and cotton prices softened under the weight of large supplies. The episode also touches on factors to watch heading into 2026 including global demand and how South American weather could shape markets over th...

Show more...

Episodes (20/73)

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 71 - November 2025 WASDE report is relatively quiet despite surprises in production and exports

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stocks and strong corn export demand, while rice and cotton prices softened under the weight of large supplies. The episode also touches on factors to watch heading into 2026 including global demand and how South American weather could shape markets over th...

3 days ago

24 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 70 - The 2025 Arkansas State Net Farm Income Projection is Adjusted $850 Million Downward in its Fall Revision

Arkansas’s 2025 net farm income was revised down by $850 million, and in this episode Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy break down what’s driving the shift. Wet spring conditions cut rice and soybean acres, delayed and smaller disaster payments pulled income even lower, and only modest livestock gains helped offset the decline. They also look ahead to 2026, where most crop margins remain negative, but updated safety-net provisions offer a bit more stability for soybeans, corn, and peanuts.

1 week ago

19 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 69 - Developing a Market Plan in the Post-Harvest Window

With harvest wrapping up across much of the Midsouth, today’s episode looks at how pre-harvest marketing strategies can guide decision-making after the crop is in the bin. Ryan Loy is joined by Andrew McKenzie and Scott Stiles to discuss how to adapt pre-harvest marketing plans for the post-harvest window, factoring in storage costs, breakevens, and recent export-driven price moves in soybeans.

2 weeks ago

24 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 68 - Prevented Planting: When (if ever) is it a good business decision to take the PP indemnity?

Join us for an in-depth discussion between Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy on prevented planting (PP) decisions in Arkansas rice production. Using simulated 2025 yield and price outcomes, they evaluate when PP could be financially preferable to planting. The episode also addresses second-crop soybean considerations and how the timing and scale of pre-plant costs can determine whether PP is a strategic choice or a costly one.

3 weeks ago

23 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 67 - The State of the Arkansas Crop Economy in 2025

For the third consecutive year, Arkansas crop producers are facing a hard reality — total cash expenses exceed total cash income. In this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, Scott Stiles, and Grant Beckwith sit down together to unpack what’s driving the financial stress on Arkansas farms. They discuss the key takeaways from the “Farm Gate Economics: Surviving the Cost-Price Squeeze” meeting, including fertilizer prices that refuse to drop and record global grai...

1 month ago

19 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 66 - Optimizing PRF Insurance for Southern Forage Producers: Lessons from Arkansas

Interval timing matters more than you think when it comes to Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance. Hunter Biram and guest Walker Davis unpack new University of Arkansas research comparing dry, median, and wet counties to reveal how rainfall trends and interval selection shape profitability. They discuss interval-selection strategies—from Near Peak Forage Months to Historical Variation—and why these two outperform profit-max and basis-risk methods across most scenarios. With the Dece...

1 month ago

20 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 65 - 2025/26 Rice Market Outlook

Historic April floods in the Mid-South forced widespread replanting, setting the stage for a volatile 2025 rice marketing year. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Alvaro Durand-Morat to unpack global market forces reshaping U.S. rice competitiveness. They discuss how India’s lifted export ban, record global harvests, and shifting import policies in key markets like the Philippines have driven prices down nearly 30% from last year. They also examine the quality challenges facing U.S. rice...

1 month ago

19 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 64 - Estimating County-Level Farm Program Payments in The One Big Beautiful Bill Act

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 brings sweeping changes to the farm safety net. Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram break down what motivated Congress to expand Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO) programs, how those updates shift risk management across regions, and the modeling behind county-level payment estimates. They also unpack what the ongoing government shutdown could mean for the timing of program payments and farm operations this fall, and take a lo...

1 month ago

18 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 63 - Short-Term Interest Rates and Identifying Financial Stress

The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2024, easing short-term lending costs but offering little immediate relief for producers in a tough ag economy. Ryan Loy is joined by Erica Barnes Fields as they connect these market shifts to rising farm financial stress, drawing lessons from the 1980s crisis and outlining red flag warning signs and resources available to support farm families today.

1 month ago

16 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 62 - USDA September 12th Reports Highlight Record Corn Production and Downward Revision in Rice Price

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram recap USDA’s Sept. 12 reports on this week's episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets. USDA found more corn acres while trimming yield, and futures firmed after early field reports of disease in the western Corn Belt and late-season dryness in the east. Soybeans lean toward record crush while exports lag amid South American competition and tariffs. Long-grain rice sees a downward revision in price, and cotton stays rangebound with Brazil’s growing export share ...

2 months ago

22 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 61 - Margin Protection (MP) and Margin Coverage Option (MCO) Sales Closing Date for Corn and Soybeans is September 30, 2025

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to talk margin insurance. They break down Margin Protection and the Margin Coverage Option, how each fits with other crop insurance plans, and the signup windows. Hunter also walks through the Margin Protection Payment Estimator tool to show how Arkansas producers can use it to check breakevens and potential payments for the 2026 crop year.

2 months ago

23 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 60 - Prevented Planting: Historical Impacts to Indemnities and Acreage

Hunter and Ryan are back with part two of our Prevented Planting (PP) series. They look at 30 years of Arkansas trends—how PP losses surged after 2011 and have topped production losses since 2019 (often outpacing premiums), in addition to which crops drive the payouts. Rice and corn lead the pack, 2019 stands out as a peak year, and preliminary 2025 FSA data points to high PP acreage led by rice, with final tallies still coming in. They close the episode with takeaways for risk management as ...

2 months ago

22 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 59 - The Mississippi River is Set to Fall to Severe Levels for the Fourth Year in a Row

For the fourth year in a row, Mississippi River levels are dropping to severe lows during harvest. Join Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy as they discuss how these conditions are impacting barge freight rates, soybean basis, and local cash bids. They break down what it all means for grain marketing in the Midsouth as harvest approaches.

2 months ago

21 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 58 - Tracking Chapter 12 Bankruptcies in the South: 2015 – 2025 Trends

Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to explore Chapter 12 bankruptcy trends across the U.S. and in Arkansas. They discuss what rising filings reveal about farm financial stress, how margins are tightening due to rising costs, and why this matters for producers and rural communities.

3 months ago

25 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 57 - USDA’s August Crop Forecasts Point to Record Corn and Soybean Yields

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles break down USDA’s Aug. 12 forecasts. Corn is on track for record yields and production, rebuilding U.S. supplies. Soybeans pair record yield potential with fewer harvested acres, keeping new-crop supplies relatively tight. Long-grain rice sees higher beginning stocks and a modest production bump largely offset by stronger demand. Cotton acreage is reduced; even with better yields, production declines and ending stocks tighten. Grains look well supplied, while soy...

3 months ago

26 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 56 - July 2025 Short-term Interest Rate Update

Dr. Ryan Loy unpacks the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting and what it means for farm borrowing costs. We also break down rising inflation pressures, the looming August 7 tariff deadline, and how trade tensions could impact input prices and export markets. Tune in for practical insights on navigating agriculture’s financial challenges in today’s uncertain economy.

3 months ago

20 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 55 - Do Daily Large Export Sales Reports Move Markets?

In this episode, Eunchun Park and Ryan Loy explore whether USDA’s Daily Large Export Sales Reports (DLESR) influence commodity futures markets. Unlike regularly scheduled USDA reports like WASDE, DLESRs are unscheduled and announce significant export transactions—making them potentially impactful market events. Park discusses findings from intraday futures data showing how markets may react to these unexpected announcements, especially given the unique two-day lag between a sale and its publi...

3 months ago

25 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 54 - Prevented Planting: Coverage Levels, Payments, and Rules

In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy explore Prevented Planting coverage—the indemnity within Yield and Revenue Protection policies that compensate producers when extreme events, like April’s floods, prevent planting. They explain RMA’s crop-specific base coverage factors (plus an optional 5% buy-up), walk through cost breakdowns and payment calculations, and outline rules for second-crop planting and APH yield adjustments. Join us next week for part two, where we’ll exami...

4 months ago

24 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 53 - July WASDE: Heavy Stocks Keep Pressure on 2025 Price Outlook

In this episode, Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram unpack USDA’s July WASDE, which largely met expectations as favorable weather and robust yields continue to underpin ample supplies. Soybean acreage cuts trimmed production slightly, but stronger crush demand held stocks steady and nudged forecast prices lower; long-grain rice saw acreage-driven production cuts offset by demand revisions that lifted ending stocks; corn stocks eased on old-crop export gains and residual adjustments; and cotton out...

4 months ago

21 minutes

Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Episode 52 - Stronger farm safety net included in the OBBB Act, “Skinny” Farm Bill, and SDRP disaster payments

In this episode, Hunter Biram and Will Maples break down recent federal policy updates affecting U.S. agriculture. The newly passed “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) strengthens the farm safety net with major changes to PLC, ARC, and crop insurance—including higher reference prices, expanded SCO eligibility, and increased premium subsidies. They also discuss the “Skinny” Farm Bill’s potential follow-up measures and USDA’s rollout of SDRP disaster payments for producers impacted by 2023–2...

4 months ago

24 minutes